Weekend ratings predictions.

First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Final rating
College basketball	Missouri/Connecticut	CBS	5.1	5.4
The 5.4 final rating for Connecticut’s win over Missouri was up 4% from last year’s comparable UCLA/Xavier matchup. The 4% increase was the highest of the four Elite Eight telecasts.
College basketball	Pittsburgh/Villanova	CBS	6.0	6.6
The 6.6 final rating for Villanova’s upset win over Pittsburgh last Saturday was up 2% from a 6.5 for Louisville/North Carolina in ’08, but also marked the lowest rating for the late Saturday Elite Eight window since at least ’99.
College basketball	Louisville/Michigan State	CBS	5.7	5.2
Michigan State’s upending of overall #1 seed Louisville drew a 5.2 last Sunday afternoon, up 2% from a 5.1 for Memphis/Texas in ’08, but tied as the fourth-lowest rating for any Elite Eight game since ’99.
College basketball	North Carolina/Oklahoma	CBS	8.3	6.8
Thanks in part to Tiger Woods, the marquee North Carolina/Oklahoma game was the only Elite Eight telecast to see a decline in ratings. North Carolina’s win drew a 6.8, down 22% from an 8.7 for Kansas/Davidson last year, and the lowest rating in the late Sunday window since 2003.
NBA	Mavericks/Cavaliers	ABC	1.5	1.6
The 1.6 rating for the Cavaliers’ blowout win over the Mavericks last Sunday was up 23% from a 1.3 for Rockets/Spurs in ’08, and marks the highest rating for an NBA game on broadcast opposite the NCAA Tournament since ’06. Overall, ABC averaged a 1.4 for two games opposite the NCAA Tournament, flat from last year.
PGA Tour	Arnold Palmer Invitational, Final Round	NBC	2.9	4.4
Tiger Woods lifted the PGA Tour to stellar numbers last week. The 4.4 final rating for Woods’ comeback at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was up 26% from a 3.5 in ’08, and marked the highest rating for a non-major PGA Tour event since the ’07 Buick Invitational.
NASCAR	Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500	FOX	5.0	4.6
NASCAR ratings have been trending down so far this season, and last Sunday’s race was no exception. The 4.6 for the Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500 was off 13% from a 5.3 last year, and marked the lowest rating for the race since ’02.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
College basketball	Michigan St./Connecticut	6:00 PM Saturday	CBS	7.8
The first game of the Final Four featured two prominent programs, including a Connecticut squad that has attracted significant national attention in recent days. Look for ratings to improve over the below average 7.2 for last year’s Memphis/UCLA tilt.
College basketball	Villanova/North Carolina	8:30 PM Saturday	CBS	9.2
Look for Villanova/North Carolina to draw slightly higher numbers than the 8.8 for last year’s Kansas/North Carolina game, which was such a blowout early that then CBS-analyst Billy Packer declared the game over.
NBA	Spurs/Cavaliers	1 PM Sunday	ABC	2.0
The 2007 NBA Finals were not much of a ratings hit, but look for this rematch between the Spurs and Cavaliers to give ABC a ratings boost. Last year’s comparable Warriors/Hornets game drew a paltry 1.4.
NBA	Suns/Mavericks	3:30 PM Sunday	ABC	2.1
This battle for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West may have been a bigger deal if the Suns had a more realistic chance of making the playoffs. Last year’s comparable game between the same teams drew a 2.2.
MLB	Phillies/Braves	8:00 PM Sunday	ESPN2	2.3
Major League Baseball begins its 2009 season hoping to reverse last year’s trend of record low ratings. Last year’s season opening Braves/Nationals game drew a 2.4 on ESPN; the last season opener on ESPN2 (Mets/Cardinals in ’07) drew a 2.3.
College basketball	Louisville/Oklahoma	7 PM Sunday	ESPN	1.7
Look for a slight decline in ratings for the first game of ESPN’s Sunday night Women’s Final Four doubleheader. Last year’s comparable tilt between Stanford and women’s powerhouse Connecticut drew a 1.8.
College basketball	Connecticut/Stanford	9:30 PM Sunday	ESPN	2.2
While the rematch between Stanford and Connecticut figures to get a higher rating than their game last year, the game will be hard pressed to match the 2.4 for last year’s game between LSU and Candace Parker’s Tennessee squad.
NHL	Wild/Red Wings	12:30 PM Sunday	NBC	0.7
The Red Wings’ drawing power will likely be offset by the 10th place Wild’s lackthereof. Last year’s comparable Blackhawks/Red Wings game drew a mere 0.6.
NASCAR	Samsung 500	1:30 PM Sunday	FOX	4.9
NASCAR ratings have been way off from last year, but expect the Samsung 500 to easily draw the best ratings of any non-NCAA Tournament sporting event this weekend. Last year’s comparable race drew a 5.4.