Dwyane Wade will likely miss at least the next month of action while recovering from a dislocated shoulder. Without of the league’s most marketed stars, who recently finished a “Brand Wade” summit in Las Vegas, it is easy to expect ratings to fall.
The Heat have already played three of their five alotted appearances on ABC. The three games (Dec. 25 vs. the Lakers, Jan. 21 vs. Dallas and Feb. 11 vs. San Antonio) have averaged a rating of 2.5, higher than the overall ABC average of 2.4.
Sunday will be the fourth time the defending champions play on ABC, with the final appearance scheduled for April 1 at Detroit. Wade’s absence should only affect this Sunday’s game; the showdown between Cleveland and Miami could have scored as high as a 3.0 rating, but will now likely settle anywhere from 2.3 to 2.7. Wade could be back by the April 1 game, though even if he does not play, the 1:00 pm timeslot seemingly dooms that Miami/Detroit battle to a 2.0 or lower rating.
The real problem here is that the Miami Heat, already clinging to the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, will more than likely miss the NBA Playoffs. A team with the star power Miami has missing the playoffs would normally mean that ratings would plummet. The 2005 NBA Playoffs drew low numbers on ABC, ESPN and TNT when the Lakers were absent.
Thankfully for ABC and ESPN at least, the Heat are not nearly the draw that the Lakers were in their prime. In last year’s playoffs, Miami played three times on ABC before the NBA Finals — a first round game against the Chicago Bulls, a semifinal game against the New Jersey Nets and a Conference Final game in prime time against the Detroit Pistons. The games drew a 2.8, 3.5 and 5.5 rating respectively, averaging a 3.9 rating overall. That 3.9 rating was up from the 3.6 for ABC’s entire playoff schedule, but was beaten by the 4.1 average the Cleveland Cavaliers drew for their three ABC playoff games, and tied by the 3.9 the Los Angeles Lakers drew for their two ABC playoff games.
Unlike the Los Angeles Lakers of 2000-2004, the Miami Heat are not far and away the biggest draw in the NBA. Even without the defending champions, NBA network television partners still — to this point — have the Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks to bring in decent television ratings.
