First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Mavericks at Pistons. Prediction: 1.5. Final rating: 1.3. Tied with March 11 Nuggets/Kings and an ’05 Spurs/Pistons game for ABC’s second-lowest rating ever for an NBA game. So far this March, ABC has drawn ratings of 1.9, 1.3 and 1.3 for three NBA games — an average of 1.5. That the Mavericks/Pistons game drew an identical rating to the Spurs/Pistons NBA Finals preview in ’05 doesn’t necessarily bode well for a Dallas-Detroit finals.
- NASCAR on FOX, Kobalt Tools 500. Prediction: 5.6. Final rating: 5.2. Up significantly from last year’s rained-out event, but down from 5% from ’05 and 8% from ’04. Still a good rating, but continuing the trend of generally declining numbers for the sport.
- NCAA Tournament on CBS. Prediction: 5.4, 6.9, 8.0. Final rating: 4.7, 6.6, 7.2. The rating for the early game was up 7% from a 4.4 for Bradley/Pittsburgh last year, the only Sunday game to buck the trend of generally declining ratings. The second game of CBS’ Sunday NCAA tripleheader was down 6% from last year’s 7.0, while the nightcap fell 7% to a 7.2 from an 7.7.
- NBA on ESPN, Mavericks at Lakers (March 11). Prediction: 1.8. Final rating: 1.2. The fact that the Lakers were on the receiving end of a nasty blowout helpled lower the ratings; still, despite airing on cable against heavy competition, ESPN’s game nearly pulled even with ABC’s game (Nuggets/Kings) earlier that afternoon.
- ACC Championship Game, UNC/NC State (March 11). Prediction: 1.9. Final rating: 1.4. The ACC Championship Game sees a big drop from 2006, when the game between Duke and Boston College drew a 1.9. Apparently, UNC isn’t quite the draw that Duke was.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC: Suns at Kings, 3:30 PM, Sunday — ABC continues its NBA ratings suicide with another Sacramento game. Frankly, even Michael Jordan’s Bulls in their prime couldn’t draw good numbers playing against an uninspiring Kings squad that will likely miss the playoffs. Even worse than presenting a Kings game for the second time in three weeks, ABC puts this game on at 3:30 PM, directly opposite Elite Eight matchups on CBS. In past years, NBC aired games at Noon ET, to avoid competing with NCAA Tournament. Prediction: 1.3.
- NASCAR on FOX: Food City 500, 1:30 PM Sunday — Last year’s race pulled in a 6.2 rating, higher than the 6.1 for George Mason/UConn. Expect this year’s race to fall even further than other NASCAR races have so far this year, due to stiffer competition from the NCAA Tournament. Prediction: 5.0.
- NCAA Tournament on CBS: Oregon/Florida, 2:30 PM Sunday — The early Sunday timeslot is usually good for some decent numbers. George Mason/UConn drew a 6.1 last year, while Wisconsin/UNC drew a 6.7 in ’05 and Kansas/Georgia Tech drew a 5.2 in ’04. The defending champion Gators could attract more viewers, though an under the radar Oregon squad might not inspire big-time numbers. Prediction: 6.3.
- NCAA Tournament on CBS: UNC/Georgetown, 5:00 PM Sunday — A classic match-up of two of the best known college basketball schools in the country. The rematch of the 1982 National Championship game will surely draw more viewers than any other sporting event this weekend, and might draw the best numbers for an NCAA Tournament game in many years. Xavier/Duke drew an 8.6 in ’04, Kentucky/Michigan State drew a 10.4 in ’05, and Florida/Villanova drew a relatively bad 7.8 in ’06. Prediction: 11.1.
