Weekend ratings predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Final rating
MLB	Yankees/Phillies G3	FOX	9.3	9.1
Saturday’s rain-delayed Game 3 of the World Series drew a 9.1 rating, up 49% from a 6.1 for Rays/Phillies Game 3 last year, but the 5th-lowest rated World Series game since at least 1972.
MLB	Yankees/Phillies G4	FOX	13.0	13.5
The 13.5 rating for Sunday’s Game 4 of the World Series was up 45% from a 9.3 last year, and marked the highest rating for any World Series game since 2004.
NFL	Vikings/Packers (or other regional action)	FOX	22.1	17.4
Brett Favre‘s homecoming drew a 17.4 rating on FOX last Sunday, up 26% from last year’s comparable Giants/Steelers game, and the highest rated regular season NFL telecast since 2007.
NFL	Giants/Eagles (or other regional action)	FOX	12.3	9.7
The first game of last Sunday’s NFL doubleheader on FOX drew a 9.7 rating, up 10% from an 8.8 for comparable coverage last year.
NFL	Jets/Dolphins (or other regional action)	CBS	6.1	8.4
CBS drew an 8.4 for last Sunday’s singleheader, up 12% from last year’s comparable telecast.
College football	USC/Oregon or Texas/Oklahoma St.	ABC	4.9	4.2
Saturday Night Football — featuring either USC/Oregon or Texas/Oklahoma St. — drew a 4.2 rating on ABC last week, down 34% from a 6.4 for Ohio St./Penn St. last year.
College football	Washington St./Notre Dame	NBC	2.7	1.4
The 1.4 for last Saturday’s primetime Washington St./Notre Dame tilt on NBC was the second-lowest of the season for a Notre Dame telecast on the network, ahead of only a 1.3 for Nevada/Notre Dame in September.
College football	Georgia/Florida	CBS	4.4	4.4
Last Saturday’s Georgia/Florida matchup drew a 4.4 rating, up 47% from a 3.0 for Georgia/LSU last year, and the second-highest rated college football game of the season on CBS.
College football	Miami/Wake Forest (or other regional action)	ABC	3.2	3.2
Regional college football action featuring Miami/Wake Forest drew a 3.2 rating on ABC last week, down 38% from a 5.1 for comparable coverage last year.
College football	South Carolina/Tennessee	ESPN	2.1	1.5
On a crowded Saturday night in sports, ESPN’s South Carolina/Tennessee telecast drew a 1.5 U.S. rating, off 38% from a 2.4 for last year’s comaprable Alabama/Tennessee game
NASCAR	Amp Energy 500	ABC	4.2	4.2
The 4.2 for last Sunday’s Amp Energy 500 on ABC was off 9% from a 4.6 last year, and marks the lowest rating for the race since ’00.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Cowboys/Eagles	8 PM Sunday	NBC	12.6
Sunday Night Football returns after a one-week hiatus. Expect this week’s Cowboys/Eagles battle to draw the highest rating for a Sunday night game since the Cowboys’ last appearance — Week 2 against the Giants (15.1). Patriots/Colts in Week 9 last year drew a 10.6.
NFL	Chargers/Giants (or other regional action)	4:15 PM Sunday	CBS	12.8
Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers face off for the first time since they were traded for each other during the ’04 NFL Draft. While that angle may not be as attractive as, say, Brett Favre‘s return to Lambeau Field last week, look for CBS to draw solid numbers regardless. Last year’s comparable Cowboys/Giants game drew a 14.3 on FOX.
NFL	Dolphins/Patriots (or other regional action)	1 PM Sunday	CBS	9.0
The first game of Sunday’s doubleheader on CBS features a trio of crucial division matchups — Dolphins/Patriots (which has extra hype thanks to Joey Porter‘s mouth), Ravens/Bengals and Texans/Colts. Expect good numbers. Last year’s comparable window on FOX drew an 8.6.
NFL	Cardinals/Bears (or other regional action)	1 PM Sunday	FOX	8.5
Sunday’s singleheader on FOX features some of the worst teams in the NFL — Washington, the Lions and the Buccaneers. Most of the country gets Cardinals/Bears, which pits two 4-3 teams. Still, with FOX having drawn strong numbers throughout the NFL season, expect decent numbers. Last year’s Week 9 singleheader on CBS drew an 8.0.
College football	Ohio St./Penn St. (or other regional action)	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	4.3
Saturday’s early college football window on ABC features a Top 25 battle of Big Ten rivals — Ohio State against Penn State. Last year’s primetime meeting between the teams on ABC drew a massive 6.4 rating.
College football	Connecticut/Cincinnati (or other regional action)	8 PM Saturday	ABC	3.9
Connecticut/Cincinnati may not seem like ‘ready for primetime’ battle, but with Cincinnati in the Top 5, perhaps viewers will tune in out of curiosity. Still, the numbers will fall far short of the 7.5 for Texas/Texas Tech on the comparable night last year.
College football	LSU/Alabama	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	3.7
The 2009 season has been a good one for the SEC on CBS so far. Look for Saturday’s LSU/Alabama battle to draw strong numbers. Last year, Georgia/Florida drew a 3.8.
College football	Navy/Notre Dame	2:30 PM Saturday	NBC	2.1
After an embarrassing 1.4 in primetime last week, look for Notre Dame to rebound in the ratings on Saturday. Last year’s Notre Dame/Navy game drew a 1.9 on CBS; the last time the teams played on NBC, the game drew a 2.3.
College football	Florida St./Clemson	7:45 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.0
Despite being steeped in mediocrity over the last few seasons, Florida State still remains a decent draw. Expect good enough numbers for Saturday’s FSU tilt against Clemson. Last year, Wisconsin/Michigan State drew a 1.8.
MMA	Strikeforce	9 PM Saturday	CBS	2.6
Mixed martial arts returns to CBS on Saturday night. Last year, three Saturday night Elite XC telecasts drew ratings of 3.0, 1.7 and 2.7. Expect similar numbers for Saturday’s telecast.
NASCAR	Dickies 500	3:15 PM Sunday	ABC	3.3
Another week, another drop in NASCAR ratings? Signs point to yes. Last year’s race drew a 3.7 rating.
Horse	Breeders’ Cup World Championships	1:30 PM Saturday	ABC	1.1
The Breeders’ Cup returns to ABC on Saturday. Will ratings improve from last year’s 1.0?

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.