Weekend ratings predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions
Source: Sports Business Daily

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Final rating
NFL	Cowboys/Eagles	NBC	12.6	13.1
Last week’s Cowboys/Eagles tilt drew a 13.1 rating on NBC, up 24% from a 10.6 for last year’s comparable Patriots/Colts game, and the second-highest rating of the season for a Sunday Night Football game.
NFL	Chargers/Giants (or other regional action)	CBS	12.8	11.8
The 11.8 rating for last Sunday’s NFL national window on CBS was down 18% from a 14.3 for last year’s comparable Giants/Cowboys tilt on FOX.
NFL	Dolphins/Patriots (or other regional action)	CBS	9.0	8.7
The first game of last week’s NFL doubleheader on CBS drew an 8.7 rating, up 1% from an 8.6 for comparable coverage on FOX last year.
NFL	Cardinals/Bears (or other regional action)	FOX	8.5	9.7
Sunday’s NFL singleheader on FOX, featuring Cardinals/Bears, drew a 9.7 rating, up 21% from an 8.0 for last year’s Week 9 singleheader on CBS.
College football	Ohio St./Penn St. (or other regional action)	ABC	4.3	3.7
Regional college football action featuring Ohio St./Penn St. drew a 3.7 rating on ABC last Saturday, even with comparable coverage last year.
College football	Connecticut/Cincinnati (or other regional action)	ABC	3.9	3.6
The 3.6 rating for regional action featuring Connecticut/Cincinnati last Saturday night was off 52% from a 7.5 for Texas/Texas Tech in ’08, which was last year’s highest rated Saturday Night Football telecast.
College football	LSU/Alabama	CBS	3.7	4.3
Last week’s LSU/Alabama matchup drew a 4.3 rating on CBS, up 13% from Georgia/Florida last year (3.8), and the highest rated college football game of the season on CBS that did not involve the Gators.
College football	Navy/Notre Dame	NBC	2.1	1.9
The 1.9 rating for Navy’s upset win over Notre Dame last week is even compared to last year’s meeting between the same two teams on CBS, but marks a 17% decline from a 2.3 for their ’07 matchup on NBC.
College football	Florida St./Clemson	ESPN	2.0	1.4
Saturday night’s Florida St./Clemson tilt on ESPN (1.4) drew a lower rating than a Vanderbilt/Florida game airing on ESPN2 at the same time (1.8).
MMA	Strikeforce	CBS	2.6	2.5
Last week’s Strikeforce telecast on CBS drew a 2.5 rating, making the event the second-lowest rated of the four MMA broadcasts to air on the network.
NASCAR	Dickies 500	ABC	3.3	3.7
The 3.7 rating for last week’s Dickies 500 was even compared to last year, marking only the 7th time this season that NASCAR did not suffer a decline in ratings.
Horse racing	Breeders’ Cup World Championships	ABC	1.1	0.9
ABC drew a 0.9 rating for coverage of the Breeders’ Cup last Saturday, off 10% from a 1.0 last year.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Patriots/Colts	8 PM Sunday	NBC	13.3
Under the right conditions, the Patriots/Colts rivalry can be as big a draw as anything in the NFL. The highest rated, most-viewed regular season NFL game of the decade was a Patriots/Colts game (2007; 20.1, 33.8 mil). While Sunday night’s game will fall well short of any decade-high, the fact that the Colts are undefeated should keep the numbers strong — and well above the relatively unimpressive 10.6 for last year’s Sunday nighter between the teams.
NFL	Cowboys/Packers (or other regional action)	4:15 PM Sunday	FOX	14.8
Last year’s battle between the Cowboys and Packers was the second-highest rated Sunday Night Football game of the season, while their 2007 matchup remains the most-viewed NFL telecast ever on NFL Network. Like NBC and NFL Network, expect FOX to be the beneficiary of the latest head-to-head meeting between two of the most storied franchises in football. Last year’s comparable Week 10 telecast drew a 13.6 rating.
NFL	Falcons/Panthers (or other regional action)	1 PM Sunday	FOX	8.4
Each of the 4 early games on FOX features a less-than-marquee team: the 3-5 Panthers (vs. ATL), the 1-7 Lions (at MIN), the 1-7 Buccaneers (at MIA) and the 1-7 Rams (vs. NO). That being said, do not be surprised if FOX draws solid numbers anyway. Last year’s comparable window on CBS drew a 7.8.
NFL	Bengals/Steelers (or other regional action)	1 PM Sunday	CBS	9.3
This battle at the top of the AFC North received some hype during the week. Look for CBS to draw healthy ratings. Last year’s comparable singleheader on FOX drew an 8.7.
College football	Notre Dame/Pittsburgh (or other regional action)	8 PM Saturday	ABC	4.1
For the second time in three weeks, Notre Dame gets primetime exposure on broadcast television. However, expect ABC to have much more luck in the ratings than NBC did two weeks ago, when Washington St./Notre Dame drew a mere 1.4. That being said, ratings should fall short of the 5.3 rating for comparable regional action last year.
College football	Iowa/Ohio St. (or other regional action)	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	4.4
Led by battle at the top of the Big Ten, expect ABC to draw strong ratings for regional college football action Saturday afternoon. Comparable coverage last year drew a 4.5.
College football	Florida/South Carolina	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	4.3
While the novelty of Florida taking on former coach Steve Spurrier has generally worn off, expect a big audience nonetheless for the high-profile Gators. Even so, CBS may suffer a rare decline in ratings compared to last year’s comparable Alabama/LSU game — which featured Nick Saban‘s return to Baton Rouge and drew a 5.1.
College football	Tennessee/Mississippi	12 PM Saturday	CBS	2.1
Look for CBS to draw its lowest college football rating of the season for Saturday’s early afternoon Tennessee/Mississippi tilt.
College football	Alabama/Mississippi St.	7 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.6
Along with Florida, Alabama has proven to be one of the biggest draws in college football this season. Expect the Crimson Tide to attract a strong audience on ESPN Saturday night. Last year’s comparable Notre Dame/Boston College tilt drew a 1.4.
NASCAR	Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500	3:15 PM Sunday	ABC	3.4
After a rare week without a drop in ratings, NASCAR returns to ABC on Sunday. Last year’s comparable race drew a 3.6 rating before being shuffled off to ESPN2 in favor of America’s Funniest Home Videos. Will ratings hold steady for a second straight week?

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.