Weekend ratings predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions
Source: Sports Business Daily

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Final rating
NFL	Patriots/Colts	NBC	13.3	13.7
Last Sunday’s thrilling Patriots/Colts game drew a 13.7 rating on NBC, up 25% from an 11.0 for Giants/Eagles last year, and the second-highest rated Sunday Night Football telecast of the season.
NFL	Cowboys/Packers (or other regional action)	FOX	14.8	15.9
The 15.9 rating for last Sunday’s NFL national window (featuring Cowboys/Packers) was up 17% from a 13.6 for Colts/Steelers last year, and stands as the third-highest rating of the season for an NFL telecast on any network.
NFL	Falcons/Panthers (or other regional action)	FOX	8.4	7.2
The first game of last Sunday’s NFL doubleheader on FOX drew a 7.2 rating, down 8% from last year, and the lowest rating of the season for an NFL telecast on FOX.
NFL	Bengals/Steelers (or other regional action)	CBS	9.3	9.8
Last Sunday’s NFL singleheader on CBS, featuring Bengals/Steelers, drew a 9.8 rating — up 13% from an 8.7 for last year’s comparable telecast.
College football	Notre Dame/Pittsburgh (or other regional action)	ABC	4.1	3.7
Saturday Night Football, featuring Notre Dame/Pittsburgh, drew a 3.7 rating last week, off 30% from a 5.3 last year.
College football	Iowa/Ohio St. (or other regional action)	ABC	4.4	4.3
ABC drew a 4.3 rating for regional college football action featuring Iowa/Ohio St. last Saturday afternoon, down a tick from a 4.4 for last year’s comparable window.
College football	Florida/South Carolina	CBS	4.3	4.0
Last week’s Florida/South Carolina matchup drew a 4.0 rating on CBS, off 22% from a 5.1 for LSU/Alabama last year.
College football	Tennessee/Mississippi	CBS	2.1	2.2
The first game of last week’s college football doubleheader on CBS drew a 2.2 rating, the lowest of the season for any college football telecast on the network.
College football	Alabama/Mississippi St.	ESPN	2.6	2.2
The 2.2 U.S. rating for last week’s Alabama/Mississippi St. game on ESPN was down 21% from a 2.8 for last year’s meeting between the same two teams, but was up 57% versus last year’s comparable Notre Dame/Boston College matchup.
NASCAR	Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500	ABC	3.4	3.3
The Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, the second-to-last NASCAR race of the season, drew a 3.3 rating on ABC — off 8% from last year, and the lowest rating for the race since it moved to broadcast in ’01.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Eagles/Bears	8:15 PM Sunday	NBC	11.1
Expect ratings to decline for Sunday’s battle of big market, middle-of-the-road teams. Last year’s comparable Washington/Cowboys game drew an 11.6.
NFL	Jets/Patriots (or other regional action)	4:15 PM Sunday	CBS	13.4
Look for CBS to draw strong numbers for Sunday’s NFL national window, which features the high-profile Jets/Patriots rivalry in most of the country. Others get a battle at the top of the AFC West (Broncos/Chargers), while a select few gets a lopsided-on-paper Bengals/Raiders tilt. Expect the strength of the first two matchups to drive the ratings. Last year, coverage featuring Chargers/Steelers drew a 12.1.
NFL	Colts/Ravens (or other regional action)	1 PM Sunday	CBS	8.7
Expect solid numbers for the first game of Sunday’s doubleheader on CBS, which features the undefeated Colts taking on the Ravens. Last year’s comparable window drew an 8.1.
NFL	Washington/Cowboys (or other regional action)	1 PM Sunday	FOX	9.9
The good news: FOX gets the Cowboys, the undefeated Saints and the Brett Favre-led Vikings for its singleheader window on Sunday. The bad news: each team is facing a moribund opponent (Washington, Tampa Bay and Seattle, respectively). While the ratings should be strong regardless, look for a decline from last year’s 10.7.
College football	Oregon/Arizona (or other regional action)	8 PM Saturday	ABC	3.6
After three straight weeks of steep declines, expect Saturday Night Football to finally have an increase in ratings this week. Last year, comparable coverage drew a 3.0.
College football	Penn St./Michigan St. (or other regional action)	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	4.0
With the benefit of a lead-in from Ohio St./Michigan, expect a big boost in ratings for the middle window of ABC’s college football tripleheader on Saturday. Last year’s comparable matchup, which did not have a lead-in from another game, drew a 3.1.
College football	Ohio St./Michigan	12 PM Saturday	ABC	4.4
The Ohio St./Michigan matchup has lost some luster since their #1 vs. #2 battle three years ago. Still, expect a solid audience to tune-in to the latest chapter of the rivalry. Last year’s game between the rivals drew a 4.3, also in the Noon timeslot.
College football	LSU/Mississippi	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	3.4
Though lacking the drawing power of Florida and Alabama, CBS should still see an increase in ratings for Saturday’s LSU/Mississippi matchup. Last year’s comparable Florida/South Carolina game drew a 3.3.
College football	Connecticut/Notre Dame	2:30 PM Saturday	NBC	2.0
Expect semi-decent numbers for NBC’s last Notre Dame telecast of the season.
College football	Kansas St./Nebraska	7:45 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.0
Saturday night’s battle of unranked Big 12 teams should fall well short of the 2.8 U.S. rating Mississippi St./Alabama drew on ESPN last year.
NASCAR	Ford 400	3:15 PM Sunday	ABC	3.9
The NASCAR season comes to a close on Sunday with the Ford 400. Ratings for 24 of the 31 regularly scheduled NASCAR races this year have had declines. Will the final race of the season buck the trend? Last year, the Ford 400 drew a 4.0.
MLS	Galaxy/Real Salt Lake	8:30 PM Sunday	ESPN	0.9
The 2009 MLS Cup features the most recognizable player in the league (David Beckham), a team from the nation’s #2 market (the Los Angeles Galaxy), and a neutral site that has become enamored with the league (Seattle). If that was not enough, the game will air in primetime on ESPN. While competition from the NFL will certainly hurt, look for Sunday’s game to be the highest rated MLS Cup since 2001 (1.0).