First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympics | 2010 Winter Olympics (Feb. 13) | NBC |
12.8
|
14.0
|
| NBC drew a 14.0 rating for coverage of the 2010 Winter Olympics last Saturday night, up 4% from 2006 (13.5), but down 18% from 2002 (17.1). | ||||
| Olympics | 2010 Winter Olympics (Feb. 14) | NBC |
13.5
|
14.3
|
| Sunday night coverage of the Olympics drew a 14.3 rating on NBC, up 8% from ’06 (13.3), but off 18% from ’02 (17.6). | ||||
| NBA | NBA All-Star Saturday Night | TNT |
3.6
|
3.1
|
| Opposite the Winter Olympics, NBA All-Star Saturday Night drew a 3.1 U.S. rating on TNT — down 20% from last year, but flat with 2008 and 2007. | ||||
| NBA | 2010 NBA All-Star Game | TNT |
5.0
|
3.8
|
| The NBA All-Star Game had record high attendance and record low ratings. The 3.8 U.S. rating for last Sunday’s All-Star Game marks a 16% slide from last year’s 4.5, and is tied as the lowest rating ever for the NBA’s midseason showcase. | ||||
| NASCAR Nationwide | Drive 4 COPD 300 | ESPN2 |
2.8
|
2.8
|
| Danica Patrick’s NASCAR debut scored in the ratings last Saturday. The Drive 4 COPD 300 drew a 2.8 U.S. rating on ESPN2, up 40% from last year (2.0), and up 27% from 2008 (2.2). | ||||
| NASCAR | Daytona 500 | FOX |
9.8
|
7.7
|
| Last Sunday’s delay-marred Daytona 500 drew just a 7.7 rating on FOX, down 16% from last year (9.2), down 25% from 2008 (10.2), and the lowest rating for the crown jewel of the NASCAR season since 1991. | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | Maryland/Duke | CBS |
1.3
|
1.0
|
| Ohio St./Illinois |
1.0
|
0.7
|
||
| College basketball action on CBS failed to attract an audience last weekend. The 1.0 rating for Maryland/Duke last Saturday was off 17% from last year, while the mere 0.7 rating for Ohio St./Illinois on Sunday was down 36%. | ||||
| Golf (M) | AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, Third Round | CBS |
1.4
|
1.2
|
| AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, Final Round |
2.3
|
1.6
|
||
|
CBS coverage of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was down 8% on Saturday (vs. 2009) and 36% on Sunday (vs. 2008).
|
||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympics | 2010 Winter Olympics | 8 PM Saturday | NBC |
14.2
|
| Armed with the drawing power of Americans Lindsay Vonn, Apolo Ohno and Shani Davis, Saturday night may present NBC its best chance to not only top the comparable night of the ’06 Turin Olympics (11.3), but the ’02 Salt Lake City Olympics as well (14.0). | ||||
| Olympics | 2010 Winter Olympics | 7 PM Sunday | NBC |
15.1
|
| NBC should see yet another increase in ratings for the Olympics on Sunday night, as the comparable night in Turin set a fairly low bar to pass (11.6). Salt Lake City (17.1) and Nagano (18.0) will be harder to top. | ||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Magic | 1 PM Sunday | ABC |
2.6
|
| Last May, the Cavaliers and Magic played in the highest rated Eastern Conference Final since 2001 — topping even Nets/Celtics in ’02, the last East Final to air primarily on broadcast TV. Their most recent meeting drew a strong 1.7 U.S. rating on TNT, tied as the fifth-highest of the season. Even with an early timeslot, look for Sunday’s game to draw strong numbers on ABC. | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Nuggets | 3:30 PM Sunday | ABC |
2.5
|
| With what should be a good lead-in from Cavaliers/Magic, look for Celtics/Nuggets to put up good numbers on ABC Sunday. Last year’s comparable Celtics/Suns telecast drew a 2.1. | ||||
| NASCAR Nationwide | Slater Bros. 300 | 5:30 PM Saturday | ESPN2 |
2.0
|
| For the second week in a row, Danica Patrick will compete in NASCAR’s Nationwide Series. With some of the novelty sure to wear off — and without the drawing power of Daytona — do not expect the ratings to approach last week’s 2.8. Still, the numbers should be up significantly from last year’s 1.6. | ||||
| NASCAR | Auto Club 500 | 3 PM Sunday | FOX |
6.2
|
| Ratings for the Auto Club 500 have dropped in each of the past four years, from a 7.9 in ’05 to a 6.0 last year. Will moving the race from 6 PM to 3 PM improve the numbers? The last time the race began in the afternoon, it drew a 6.7 (2007). | ||||
| Golf (M) | Accenture Match Play Championship | 2 PM Saturday | CBS |
1.3
|
| 2 PM Sunday |
1.8
|
|||
| Tiger Woods‘ troubles have made people more aware of Tiger Woods — not necessarily of the game of golf. Ratings dropped for the Chevron World Challenge last December, which took place during the height of the Woods media storm. With that in mind, do not expect the Accenture Match Play Championship to get a boost in the wake of Woods’ Friday press conference. Last year, Saturday and Sunday coverage of the tournament drew ratings of 1.4 and 1.9, respectively. | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | Florida/Mississippi or UNC/BC | 12 PM Saturday | CBS |
0.8
|
| Ohio St./Mich. St or Villanova/Pitt | 12 PM Sunday |
1.2
|
||
| With the Accenture Match Play Championship taking up most of CBS’ weekend airtime, the network’s college basketball coverage gets stuck with the less-than-ideal Noon ET start time. Last year’s comparable windows (1 PM on Saturday and Sunday) drew ratings of 1.1 and 1.6, respectively. | ||||
Source: Sports Business Daily
