Weekend Ratings Predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
Olympics	2010 Winter Olympics (Feb. 20)	NBC	14.2	14.7
NBC drew a 14.7 final rating for coverage of the 2010 Vancouver Olympics last Saturday night, up 30% from Turin in ’06 (11.3/19), and up 5% from Salt Lake City in ’02 (14.0/25). The telecast ranks as the only evening window of the Vancouver Olympics to draw a higher rating than the comparable night in ’02.
Olympics	2010 Winter Olympics (Feb. 21)	NBC	15.1	13.2
NBC drew a 13.2 rating for coverage of the 2010 Winter Olympics last Sunday night — up 14% from ’06 (11.6/18), but down 23% from ’02 (17.1/26). Sunday’s telecast aired directly opposite the USA/Canada Olympic Men’s Hockey game on MSNBC, which drew a 4.3 rating.
NBA	Cavaliers/Magic	ABC	2.6	1.9
Last Sunday’s Cavaliers/Magic game drew a 1.9 final rating on ABC. There was no game in the comparable window last year.
NBA	Celtics/Nuggets	ABC	2.5	2.3
The Nuggets’ win over the Celtics drew a 2.3 final rating on ABC last Sunday, up 10% from a 2.1 for Celtics/Suns in an earlier timeslot last year.
NASCAR Nationwide	Slater Bros. 300	ESPN2	2.0	1.5
The Slater Bros. 300 — Danica Patrick‘s second NASCAR Nationwide Series race — drew a 1.5 U.S. rating on ESPN2 last Saturday, down a tick from a 1.6 last year.
NASCAR	Auto Club 500	FOX	6.2	5.6
The 5.6 final rating for last Sunday’s Auto Club 500 marks a 7% drop from last year (6.0), and ranks as the lowest rating for the race since ’03.
Golf (M)	Accenture Match Play Championship	CBS	1.3	0.8
Golf (M)	Accenture Match Play Championship	CBS	1.8	—
Ratings for the finals of the Accenture Match Play Championship were not immediately available. However, coverage of the semifinals on Saturday drew a 0.8 final rating, down 43% from last year (1.4), and down 71% from 2008 (2.8).
NCAA BB (M)	Florida/Mississippi or UNC/BC	CBS	0.8	0.9
NCAA BB (M)	Ohio St./Mich. St. or Villanova/Pitt	CBS	1.2	1.4
Ratings for college basketball on CBS declined 18% on Saturday and 13% on Sunday.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
Olympics	2010 Winter Olympics	8 PM Saturday	NBC	10.9
Ratings for the Olympics typically peter out by the last weekend. With that in mind, do not expect blockbuster numbers for the last night of competition at the 2010 Vancouver Olympics. That said, ratings should easily surpass the comparable night in Turin (9.7).
Olympics	Closing Ceremony	8 PM Sunday	NBC	9.8
The Closing Ceremony of the Turin Olympics set a comfortably low bar to pass, drawing just an 8.9 rating. While ratings Sunday’s Closing Ceremony of the Vancouver Olympics should be relatively low, expect the numbers to be well above ’06 levels.
Olympics	Men’s Hockey Gold Medal Game (Canada/USA)	3 PM Sunday	NBC	9.5
The last time the U.S. played Canada in the Men’s Hockey Gold Medal game at the Olympics (2002), the game drew a 10.7 rating — the highest for a hockey game since 1980. With this year’s Olympic hockey tournament receiving significant hype — and with the preliminary round meeting between the U.S. and Canada having drawn a 4.3 rating, the third-highest in the history of MSNBC — even bigger numbers are expected this time around. That said, this year’s Olympics have been generally down from ’02, making it somewhat unlikely that Sunday’s game will match or exceed the standard set by the 2002 Gold Medal Game. Even so, the numbers should still be impressive.
NBA	Suns/Spurs	1 PM Sunday	ABC	1.4
A few years ago, this was the biggest rivalry in the NBA. However, past glory may not be enough to draw viewers to a matchup of lower-tier playoff teams. Last year’s comparable Pistons/Celtics game drew a 2.2.
NBA	Nuggets/Lakers	3:30 PM Sunday	ABC	2.6
This rematch of the Western Conference Finals should do fairly well for ABC, but do not expect the numbers to match the 3.1 for last year’s comparable Lakers/Suns (Kobe/Shaq) matchup.
NASCAR	Shelby American	3 PM Sunday	FOX	5.9
NASCAR ratings have stumbled out of the gate, with the Daytona 500 drawing its lowest rating since ’91, and the Auto Club 500 drawing its lowest rating since ’03. Will Sunday’s race from Las Vegas change NASCAR’s fortunes? Last year’s race drew a 6.5.
NASCAR Nationwide	Sam’s Town 300	4:30 PM Saturday	ESPN2	1.9
The Danica Patrick chronicles conclude on Saturday, as the much hyped driver participates in her final NASCAR Nationwide Series race until June. Patrick’s effect on the ratings has been mixed, with her first race seeing a 40% rise in ratings, and her second race having a 6% decline. The Sam’s Town 300 drew a 1.8 U.S. rating in both 2009 and 2008.
NCAA BB (M)	Kentucky/Tennessee or Notre Dame/Georgetown	12 PM Saturday	CBS	1.4
	North Carolina/Wake Forest	2 PM Saturday		1.2
	Kansas/Oklahoma St.	4 PM Saturday		1.8
	Louisiville/Connecticut	2 PM Sunday		1.3
	Mich./Ohio St., Mich. St./Purdue, or Minn./Illinois	4 PM Sunday		1.7
CBS has a jam packed college basketball line-up this weekend, with games involving the top three teams in the country. Last year’s comparable games drew ratings of 1.1 (12 PM Sat.), 1.5 (2 PM Sat.), 1.4 (4 PM Sat.), 1.7 (2 PM Sun.), and 1.4 (4 PM Sun.).