The NBA Playoffs highlights the weekend ratings forecast once again. Also on the docket, the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Cubs-Red Sox, NFL Draft and PGA Tour.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— NBA Playoffs: Rockets-Thunder Game 4. Prediction: 4.2; final rating: 3.9.
— NBA Playoffs: Cavs-Pacers Game 4. Prediction: 2.9; final rating: 2.9.
— NBA Playoffs: Warriors-Blazers Game 3. Prediction: 2.8; final rating: 2.6.
— Stanley Cup Playoffs: Canadiens-Rangers. Prediction: 1.1; final rating: 1.3.
— Stanley Cup Playoffs: Capitals-Maple Leafs. Prediction: 0.7; final rating: 0.7.
— NASCAR Cup Series: Bristol. Prediction: 3.1; final rating: 1.6 (race PPD)
— CFB: Alabama spring game. Prediction: 0.5; final rating: 0.4.
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
NBA Playoffs: Jazz-Clippers Game 7 (3:30 PM Sun, ABC)
- ABC would no doubt have preferred a Game 1 involving the Warriors to a Game 7 between the Jazz and Clippers, but Chris Paul and company had other ideas. First round Game 7s are largely hit or miss, and for every thriller like Celtics-Bulls in 2009, clunkers like Bucks-Hawks go the distance. Jazz-Clippers seems to fall somewhere in the middle; the series has not been bad, but it certainly has not been memorable either. Ratings should fall short of last year’s 4.1 for Blazers-Warriors Game 1, as well as the last Game 7 to air in the timeslot, Mavericks-Spurs in 2014 (4.2). Prediction: 3.6.
NBA Playoffs: Wizards-Celtics Game 1 (1 PM Sun, ABC)
- There seems to be a lot of anticipation for Wizards-Celtics among NBA fans, though it remains to be seen whether that will be replicated by more casual viewers. For all his stardom at Kentucky, John Wall is still a relatively unknown figure, the result of limited exposure on national television (entering Sunday, he has made as many appearances on ABC has Michael Jordan did with the Wizards 14 years ago). The Celtics are also relatively unknown, entering the second round for the first time in the Isaiah Thomas era. Do not expect blockbuster numbers for Sunday’s series opener, though ratings should comfortably top Game 7 of Hornets-Heat last year (2.5). Prediction: 2.8.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Penguins-Capitals Game 2 (8 PM Sat, NBC)
- The first round of the NHL playoffs did well overall, but ratings dropped for four of six games on the NBC broadcast network – including both Saturday night windows. Expect that to change this week with the Penguins-Capitals series taking center stage. Last year, Game 2 between the same teams pulled a 1.4 rating on a Saturday night. Look for this year’s numbers to pull even. Prediction: 1.4.
MLB Sunday Night Baseball: Cubs-Red Sox (8 PM Sun, ESPN)
- With two of baseball’s three strongest TV draws squaring off, and absent any NBA playoff competition, Sunday Night Baseball figures to deliver a strong rating this week. Strong enough to top last year’s comparable Yankees-Red Sox game (1.5)? We’ll see. Prediction: 1.6.
NFL Draft: final rounds (12 PM Sat, ESPN & NFL Network)
- Most of the viewers have already checked out of the NFL Draft by day three, but the final rounds can still pull a decent number for Saturday afternoon on cable. Last year, Saturday coverage had a 1.2 rating on ESPN alone (NFL Network’s number was not available). Prediction: (1.3 on ESPN, 0.5 on NFLN).
PGA Tour: final round at New Orleans (3 PM Sun, CBS)
- A new team format has resulted in a stronger-than-usual field for the PGA New Orleans Classic, good news for the slumping PGA Tour. Curiosity and starpower should fuel a solid increase over 2015, the last time the final round was played as scheduled (1.6), and snap a streak of 12-straight final round declines. Prediction: 1.9.
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