The Mayweather-McGregor fight highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, the NFL preseason, college football, the Little League World Series and the BIG3 Championship.
First, the Results of the Previous Predictions:
— PGA Championship. Predictions: 2.2 & 3.2. Ratings: 2.2 & 3.2.
— NFL: Cowboys-Rams. Prediction: 1.3; Rating: 1.1.
— MLB: Red Sox-Yankees. Prediction: 1.5; Rating: 1.7.
— NASCAR: Michigan. Prediction: 2.0; Rating: 2.0.
— EPL: Manchester United-West Ham. Prediction: 0.4; Rating: 0.4.
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
Boxing: Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor (11:55 PM Sat PPV)
- It remains to be seen how much of the hype surrounding Saturday’s Mayweather-McGregor fight is actual anticipation or mere curiosity. The spectacle of the biggest names in boxing and UFC squaring off may be enough to generate record pay-per-view buys. On the other hand, few are predicting that the fight will be any good. Curiosity can get people to tune into an event on free TV or basic cable, but can it get them to plunk down $100 for pay-per-view? The 2015 Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao fight generated 4.6 million buys, cruising past the previous record of $2.4 million for Mayweather-Oscar de la Hoya in 2007. That fight had been anticipated for years as a titanic matchup between the best boxers of their generation. This on the other hand is a sweeps stunt — only in the dead of August — a TV crossover relevant for novelty and not quality. Can it work? The fight does have the David vs. Goliath aspect working in its favor. And maybe, against all odds, it will be a good fight. Even so, the prediction here is somewhere short of a record. Prediction: 4.2M buys.
NFL Preseason: 49ers-Vikings (8 PM Sun NBC)
- A preseason game featuring one of last year’s worst teams seems unlikely to move the needle. Luckily for NBC, last year’s comparable window featured an even less appealing matchup — the Bengals against the Jaguars — and set a low bar with a 3.8 rating. Prediction: 4.2.
NFL Preseason: Chargers-Rams (8 PM Sat CBS)
- It seems hard to imagine that Chargers-Rams will suddenly move the needle now that both teams play in Los Angeles, especially given that not even L.A. fans were clamoring for two teams. If ratings improve over last year’s Titans-Raiders matchup (2.4), it should not be by much. Prediction: 2.5.
College Football: Stanford-Rice (10 PM Sat ESPN)
- For the second straight year, college football returns a week early with a handful of games. Only two ranked teams play in “week zero” and only one is on a Nielsen-rated network — Stanford against Rice from Australia on ESPN. Last year, the Hawaii-Cal Australia game had a 0.5 rating on a Friday night. Expect slightly better numbers. Prediction: 0.6.
LLWS Championship (3 PM Sun ABC)
- After a couple of strong years, the Little League World Series title game fell to a 1.6 rating last year, the lowest mark since at least 1997. No reason to believe ratings will be much higher this year. Prediction: 1.8.
BIG3 Championship (4:30 PM Sat FOX)
- For a league with good word-of-mouth, the involvement of stars in sports and entertainment, and a quick renewal, the BIG3 has had poor television exposure thus far. This weekend’s final will mark the league’s first live broadcast, with regular season and playoff games having each aired on one-day delay. After debuting with a 0.3 rating on Fox Sports 1 in June — decent under the circumstances — BIG3 has been off the map in the weeks since. Has the league already squandered its opportunity to build an audience? 0.5 is probably a good marker. Anything below is dreadful for broadcast TV. Prediction: 0.6.
