College football rivalry weekend and NFL Thanksgiving ratings predictions. Also on tap, the NHL’s annual Black Friday game on NBC.
Last week’s results at bottom of page. All times Eastern.
CFB: #1 Alabama-#6 Auburn (3:30 PM Sat CBS)
The last time the Iron Bowl was a top ten matchup, 2013, Auburn pulled off one of the greatest finishes in the history of college football, running back a missed Alabama field goal for a shocking walk-off touchdown. That game had an 8.2 rating, still the highest for the rivalry this century. It will be tough for this year’s game to match 2013 on the field, or in the ratings, but CBS would be thrilled if it came anywhere close. A big rating would be a nice consolation prize for a largely disappointing season. Last year’s Iron Bowl had a 4.5 rating. Prediction: 7.6.
CFB: #9 Ohio State-Michigan (Noon Sat FOX)
The biggest get in Fox Sports’ new rights deal with the Big Ten is the annual Ohio State-Michigan game. It goes without saying that ratings will fall significantly from last year’s 9.4 on ABC, the highest for the rivalry since the #1 vs. #2 matchup in 2006. With Michigan unranked, ratings could trail 2015 as well (6.4). Even so, expect FOX to be more than satisfied. Anything above a 5.0 would rank among the network’s highest rated non-bowl telecasts ever. Prediction: 6.0.
CFB: #8 Notre Dame-#21 Stanford (8 PM Sat ABC)
Missing out on Ohio State-Michigan for the first time in recent memory, ABC will have to settle for Notre Dame as a consolation prize. Notre Dame is still alive in the College Football Playoff hunt, if barely, which should help ABC generate a decent number. The same matchup had a 1.8 rating on NBC last year (in October) and a 4.3 on FOX in 2015. In the same window last year, Florida-Florida State had a 3.6. Prediction: 3.7.
CFB: #2 Miami-Pittsburgh (Noon Fri ABC)
The Hurricanes were as big as any team in college football during their last dominant run in the early 2000s, but this year’s group is only beginning to attract national attention. Their much-hyped matchup with Notre Dame had a good-but-not-great 3.9 rating two weeks ago. The week before that, their game against Virginia Tech neared a record-low on ABC’s Saturday Night Football. Now the nation’s #2 team, Miami has Black Friday pretty much all to itself. Ratings should easily top last year’s 1.9 for Houston-Memphis, but do not expect anything eye-popping. The highest Black Friday rating since 2011 was a 3.9 for Iowa-Nebraska in 2015. Prediction: 2.9.
NFL: Vikings-Lions (12:30 PM Thu FOX)
In a rare Thanksgiving rematch, the Vikings and Lions meet on the holiday for a second-straight year. Last year’s matchup had a healthy 13.0 rating, good but not unbeatable in an ordinary year. This is not an ordinary year. Since 2008, the low water mark for NFL Thanksgiving ratings is a 10.1 (excluding games on NFL Network). Prediction: 10.2.
NFL: Chargers-Cowboys (4:30 PM Thu CBS)
The NFL probably thought the Chargers would be a bigger deal in Los Angeles when it scheduled the team for Thanksgiving Day. As it is, the nationwide apathy toward the 4-6 Chargers cancels out any big market benefits. Ratings will almost certainly drop double-digits from last year’s 14.5 for Dallas against Washington, which delivered the highest NFL Thanksgiving ratings since 2011. Prediction: 12.3.
NFL: Giants-Washington (8:30 PM Thu NBC)
The primetime Thanksgiving game is a real dud this year as 4-6 Washington faces the 2-8 Giants. Surprisingly, given New York’s poor record and the absence of star WR Odell Beckham Jr., the Giants’ three previous primetime games have each increased over last year. Do not expect that to continue. Last year’s Colts-Steelers game had a 10.1. Prediction: 8.7.
NFL: Mostly Saints-Rams (4:25 PM Sun CBS)
The NFL rescued CBS from a Broncos-Raiders rematch on Sunday, flexing in a matchup of NFC division leaders, Saints-Rams. The Saints still have Drew Brees’ starpower and the Rams boast the L.A. market, but truth be told this is a low-profile matchup. Ratings will assuredly drop from last year’s comparable 13.2 — if the Cowboys cannot crack a 13.0 rating, then Saints-Rams doesn’t have a chance. Prediction: 11.2.
NHL: Penguins-Bruins (1 PM Fri NBC)
For the first time since 2011, NBC’s Black Friday NHL game will not feature the Rangers. Despite playing in the nation’s top market, the Rangers are arguably less of a draw than Pittsburgh or Boston, so this may be addition by subtraction. Expect ratings to climb over last year’s 0.9 for Rangers-Flyers. Prediction: 1.1.
Last week’s results
— NFL: Eagles-Cowboys. Prediction: 11.7; result: 11.9
— NFL: Mostly Patriots-Raiders. Prediction: 12.0; result: 10.9
— NASCAR: Homestead. Prediction: 4.0; result: 2.8
— CFB: UCLA-USC. Prediction: 2.4; result: 2.5
— LPGA: Tour Championship. Prediction: 0.34; result: 0.50
