Weekend Ratings Predictions: NBA Christmas Day & More

Just eight months ago, the NBA finished its least-watched regular season on ABC and TNT in nine years — a lackluster campaign defined by player rest and a dull sense of inevitability. One dramatic offseason later, the league is surging to multi-year highs. Through Thursday, viewership has increased 21% across ESPN and TNT, with the former off to its best start since acquiring rights in 2002.

Why the sudden change? Credit an offseason that resulted in new “super teams” in Houston and Oklahoma City and a rare swap of all-stars at the top of the Eastern Conference — Cleveland sending Kyrie Irving to Boston for Isaiah Thomas. Credit is also due promising young players in big markets, from Joel Embiid in Philadelphia to Kristaps Porzingis in New York to the much-hyped, and much derided, Lonzo Ball in Los Angeles.

Both of those elements will be on display Christmas Day. First, Sixers-Knicks in a matchup of young stars on ESPN. Then an ABC tripleheader featuring the NBA’s big five — Cleveland vs. Golden State, Boston (albeit against mediocre Washington), and Houston vs. Oklahoma City. Capping off the night, TNT has the Lakers hosting Minnesota. If not for NFL competition, this year’s line-up would likely challenge the NBA’s highest Christmas Day average since the five-game format began in 2008.

Tougher NFL competition will probably take a few tenths off of Cavs-Warriors and Wizards-Celtics. Unlike last year, when the afternoon NFL game aired on NFL Network alone, this year’s game airs on NFL Network and NBC. The Noon and primetime games, however, are likely to post double-digit gains. Last year’s Christmas slate posted ratings of 2.0 (Noon), 4.9 (2:30 PM), 2.8 (5:00), 0.8 (8:00) and 0.95 (10:30). Predictions: 2.4, 4.6, 2.7, 3.8, 1.9.

With Christmas falling on a Monday for the first time since 2006, ESPN has a rare holiday edition of Monday Night Football this week. MNF has borne the brunt of the NFL’s two-year ratings slump, with this season likely to fall below last year’s record-low numbers. Just four of 16 telecasts all season have cracked a 7.0 rating. This week’s finale should rank among the top MNF games all season, thanks to the Christmas holiday and the Eagles’ 12-2 record, but do not expect the numbers to be particularly impressive. Last year’s Week 16 game, Cowboys-Lions, had an unreachable 10.1 rating. The last MNF game on Christmas, Jets-Dolphins in 2006, had a 6.5. Prediction: 7.2.

With the only reasons to watch a Houston Texans game both sidelined — J.J. Watt and Deshaun Watson — the NFL’s first Christmas Day game is the equivalent of finding a pair of socks under the tree. Even so, ratings should comfortably increase over last year. Steelers-Texans airs on both NBC and NFL Network, while last year’s Ravens-Steelers matchup was an NFL Network exclusive. Look for a solid bump over last year’s 6.5. Prediction: 7.6.

Seahawks-Cowboys is not quite the marquee matchup the NFL and FOX had in mind when the schedule was announced, but no matter. Thanks to a scheduling quirk, ratings should soar nonetheless. Because Christmas fell on a Sunday last year, the usual Sunday NFL windows took place on Saturday. The late doubleheader game had a mere 8.1 rating, the lowest for the window since at least 2004. Ratings should rise at least 40 percent. Prediction: 12.0.

To avoid Christmas Eve night, NBC’s Sunday Night Football will take place on a Saturday night for the first time. Had the Packers won last week to remain in the playoff race, their matchup against division-leading Minnesota would have carried some intrigue. Instead, Green Bay has been mathematically eliminated, Aaron Rodgers is done for the year, and the only stakes are whether Minnesota will clinch a first round bye. Given the unusual night and the subpar matchup, expect NBC to approach an SNF season-low. Prediction: 8.4.

For the first time in three years, the Hawaii Bowl has no NFL competition. With both Fresno State and Houston somewhat familiar to national audiences, expect a big increase over last year’s 0.7. Prediction: 1.5.