Ratings Predictions: Olympics, Daytona, NBA All-Stars & More

Winter Olympics ratings are a mixed bag. In the current TV environment, it is fairly amazing that NBC is averaging a double-digit rating for a slew of ultra-niche sports being played on the other side of the globe. The Americans are not particularly impressive or compelling this year, with a gold medal count that is on pace as the lowest in years. The political and cultural divide has reached “No Children” levels, which would seemingly hurt an event that is fueled by national pride and unity. With that as a backdrop, NBC should be overjoyed that it is averaging a 12.4 rating across all platforms — a number that exceeds the most recent NBA Finals (11.3) and World Series (10.7).

At the same time, PyeongChang is barely ahead of the disastrous Turin Olympics in 2006 (12.3), and that is despite a slew of new platforms — cable, streaming and primetime encores on the West Coast — and tremendously weak competition from the other major networks. Granted, the numbers could be even worse; maybe a point or two below Turin and a new record-low. Even so, just because expectations were low going in, and just because ratings are down for nearly everything of television, does that mean historically low numbers can be handwaved away? That was the key question of the last NFL season. By every standard except its own, NFL ratings were strong last season. By every standard except its own, Olympics ratings are strong right now.

As for this weekend, it is tough to see where NBC can score ratings points. The figure skating competition has reached the ice dancing phase, which is not on the level of the traditional singles and pairs events. None of the other events scheduled for NBC’s primetime windows seem to have much juice. NBC has Lindsey Vonn in alpine skiing, but coming off of her sixth-place finish in Super G, she may not have the appeal she used to. The other products of NBC’s hype machine, primarily Mikaela Shiffrin, Nathan Chen and Shaun White, are either off or done for the Games. The comparable nights four years ago were pretty rough — a 9.6 and 12.1 respectively — so if the trend of modest declines continues, NBC could be looking at record-low territory. Predictions: 8.8 and 11.2.

Every year at the end of another low-rated NASCAR season, the saving grace is the assumption that the numbers have hit bottom. Then, the following year, new lows. Eventually, NASCAR will finally have nowhere to go but up. For now, the safe prediction is that ratings will continue what has been an almost inexorable trend downward.

It was not so long ago that the Daytona 500 regularly earned a double-digit rating, but in recent years the “Great American Race” has failed to crack even a 7.0. The race has had a 6.6 rating in each of the past two years, tied as the second-lowest mark on record. The lowest? A 5.4 in 2014, the last time the race faced the Winter Olympics. That somewhat anomalous result was due in large part to a lengthy rain delay that pushed Daytona into direct competition with the Closing Ceremony. Barring similar circumstances, this year’s race should not be quite as low.

Are there any positive signs for NASCAR? One would think Danica Patrick‘s final 500 would generate a few headlines, but there has been little coverage. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is in PyeongChang covering the Olympics for NBC. There appears to be none of the already limited mainstream buzz that accompanies the race. If ratings somehow hold steady, that would be a win. More likely is the second-worst performance on record. Prediction: 6.0.

With the NBA All-Star Game sinking into Pro Bowl levels of legitimacy of late, the league has changed formats this year, adopting the All-Star draft system used by the NFL and NHL earlier in the decade. While the All-Star draft largely failed to resurrect either of those games, it has a greater chance of success in the star-driven NBA. The spectacle of LeBron James and Stephen Curry picking their All-Star teammates probably would have generated a solid rating had it been televised, and the prospect of James playing alongside Kevin Durant is intriguing.

Will that be enough to move the needle? All-Star ratings held steady at a 4.3 for three straight years before dropping to a 4.2 last year. It has been seven years since it last topped a 5.0 rating (coincidentally, or not, that game was in Los Angeles). With the Winter Olympics providing competition, how high can the numbers realistically go? Prediction: 4.6.

If the Dunk Contest was once “back” — to quote Magic Johnson‘s annual proclamation — it appears to be missing again. After flirting with some serious starpower several years ago (Dwight Howard in 2008-09, Blake Griffin in 2011), the game has gone back to the slew of up-and-comers and role players that only League Pass subscribers could recognize. With that said, this year’s lineup is more appealing than usual, with rookie of the year candidates Donovan Mitchell and Dennis Smith Jr. joining new LeBron teammate Larry Nance Jr. and, of all things, an actual All-Star — Indiana’s Victor Oladipo. Will that be enough to pull All-Star Saturday Night past last year’s 3.0 rating, the lowest since 2006? Against the Winter Olympics, perhaps not. It may be enough to hold even, however.

Yes, there are other events. But as the Dunk Contest goes, so goes All-Star Saturday Night. Prediction: 3.0.

Had Tiger Woods made the cut, the PGA Los Angeles Open had a good chance of its best number in years — or at least an increase — despite Winter Olympics competition. As it is, look for the tournament to suffer the same fate as Pebble Beach the previous week, a double-digit decline. Last year’s final round had a 2.0 rating. The last time it faced the Winter Olympics, it had a 1.6. Prediction: 1.8.