Ratings Predictions: Kentucky Derby & More

Watch the primary sports TV networks — ESPN and to a lesser extent Fox Sports 1 — and you might not see a mention of the Kentucky Derby in the weeks, days, or even hours ahead of the event. No matter. Sans any meaningful buildup, the Derby is consistently one of the highest rated sporting events of the year. The race portion (a 45 minute block) has cracked at least a 9.0 rating in six straight years and eight of the past nine, including a 9.3 last year.

Last year’s Derby outrated every Masters and Daytona 500 since 2013, not to mention four of the seven World Series games that fall.

All of which is to say that while the NBA will likely be the talk of the sports weekend, the Derby will be by far the bigger draw. In fact there is a strong possibility that ratings will challenge last month’s NCAA Tournament national championship game (9.2) as the highest rated sporting event since the Super Bowl. With ESPN’s competing Celtics-Sixers NBA game providing tougher than usual competition, the prediction here is a slight decline — but nothing too far off of recent levels. Prediction: 9.1.

For the third straight year, NBC will air a Stanley Cup playoff game directly after the Kentucky Derby — and for the third straight year, it is a Penguins-Capitals Game 5. Each game of the Penguins-Capitals series has posted a slight decline from last year’s matchup between the teams, even as the rivalry appears to be reaching its peak. In the post-Derby window the past two years, Game 5 had a 2.4 rating. Prediction: 2.3.

We all know how this story ends. Golden State wins the series (and probably the championship). Even so, New Orleans made things interesting with a Game 3 rout, and the possibility of a 2-2 series should attract a few extra casual fans for Sunday’s Game 4. Ratings will definitely rise over last year’s 3.2 for Cavs-Raptors in the same window, the only question is how high. ABC has had a surprisingly middling run of second round games of late, with just one of the network’s last eight cracking a 4.0 rating. Prediction: 3.9.

The Cavaliers have been a strong draw this postseason thanks to a run of close calls. Until Thursday, every Cavs playoff game this year had either been a nailbiting win or an upset loss, a recipe for strong ratings. Then came Thursday’s blowout of Toronto that put Cleveland up 2-0 headed back home. The general perception is that the series is over, and while nobody who has watched the Cavs all season would agree with that sentiment, casual fans might bail on Saturday’s Game 3. ABC’s Saturday night playoff game has been a remarkably stable draw of late, earning a 3.5 or 3.6 rating in four of the past five years. Prediction: 3.3.

Celtics-Sixers is the kind of big market, old-school rivalry that network executives love. This year’s matchup has the added appeal of featuring a slew of young stars. Games 1 and 2 both increased double-digits over last year, and one can expect similar results for Saturday’s Game 3 — even with Kentucky Derby competition. In the same window two years ago (there was no comparable game last year), Heat-Raptors had a 1.5. Prediction: 2.2.

The last time Tiger Woods made the cut at Quail Hollow — nine years ago — final round coverage had a 3.7 rating, still tied as the highest in the history of the event. Woods finished fourth that year. This time he is out of the top 30. Even so, his mere presence should lift ratings comfortably beyond the past two years (1.4 last year and 1.9 in 2016) and get PGA Tour ratings back on track after a rare drop last week. Prediction: 2.2.