Ratings Predictions: Elite Eight & More

It is rare that any one team or player moves the NCAA Tournament needle. There may be outsized attention for a Cinderella story, or for a matchup of whichever bluebloods are left standing after the usual upsets, but ultimately the tournament itself is the draw. This year is an exception. Like the 2015 Kentucky Wildcats, whose pursuit of an undefeated season sent tournament ratings to their highest level since 1998, Zion Williamson and the Duke Blue Devils have emerged as the headliner on the March Madness marquee.

#2 Michigan State-#1 Duke (5:05p Sun CBS). UCF was a tip-in away from knocking Duke out in the second round; Virginia Tech was an alleyoop away from sending Duke to overtime in the Sweet 16. Both shots bounced off the rim—owing no doubt to the collective will of CBS executives—and the Blue Devils live to fight another day.

So far in this NCAA Tournament, Duke has played in the most-watched first and second round games since the current TV format began in 2011. Their Sweet Sixteen game delivered the third-highest overnight in its game window since 1990. Expect more of the same for their Elite Eight clash against Michigan State, a big draw in its own right. In the past 20 years, the highest rated Elite Eight game was Michigan State-Kentucky in 2005 (10.4). No other Elite Eight game has cracked double-digits. Expect historically strong numbers Sunday. Prediction: 10.5.

#5 Auburn-#2 Kentucky (2:20p Sun CBS). CBS would undoubtedly have preferred North Carolina face Kentucky in Sunday’s undercard, but Auburn-Kentucky is a solid consolation prize. The Wildcats’ last three Elite Eight games have exceeded an 8.0 rating, but those were in better timeslots. In Sunday’s early window, expect a lower rating, but one that far exceeds last year’s 5.4 for Villanova-Texas Tech. Prediction: 6.8.

#3 Purdue-#1 Virginia (8:49p Sat TBS). While CBS has a pair of blockbusters on Elite Eight weekend, the TBS games are not quite as TV-friendly. None of the four teams playing Saturday are a significant draw, meaning the quality of the games will be the primary factor. If Purdue-Virginia is as good a game as Purdue-Tennessee was in the Sweet 16, ratings should hold up well. Even in that best-case scenario, ratings will probably have a tough time matching last year’s comparable Michigan-FSU game (5.3). Prediction: 5.1.

#3 Texas Tech-#1 Gonzaga (6:09p Sat TBS). The last time Gonzaga made the Elite Eight, two years ago, their win over Xavier delivered the lowest rating for the round since at least 1997 (3.7). That game was a 24-point rout. Barring a repeat, one would expect better results for the Bulldogs’ matchup with Texas Tech this time around—though the numbers should fall short of Loyola (Chicago)-Kansas State in the same window last year (4.4). Prediction: 4.0.

Sunday will mark a rare sight in women’s college basketball: UConn breaking out their road jerseys in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies are a #2 seed this year, and the sense of inevitability that drained the women’s tournament of intrigue earlier in this decade is largely gone. Expect a big increase over Oregon State-Louisville in the same timeslot last year (0.5). Prediction: 0.9.

Assuming Tiger Woods wins his “Elite Eight” match against Lucas Bjerregaard Saturday (UPDATE: he did not), expect NBC to score an increase in ratings for Sunday’s match play action — even with the actual Elite Eight providing tough competition. Last year’s Sunday coverage had a 1.6 rating. The last time Woods made it to Sunday at the event, 2008, coverage had a 3.0 rating. Prediction: 2.2.

Sunday Night Baseball has a new earlier timeslot this year, which should have a negative impact on the ratings. Not helping matters this week is competition from the Michigan State-Duke game, which will overlap with the start of Braves-Phillies. Interest in Bryce Harper is seemingly high, but that will probably not be enough to overcome the headwinds. Last year, Giants-Dodgers had a 1.1. Prediction: 0.9.

After Daytona and Atlanta hit new lows, it seemed like NASCAR’s ratings slump was destined to continue into another year. Then came a stretch of three-straight increases for the circuit’s West Coast swing, the longest streak for the Cup Series since 2016. To be sure, those increases were slight and the numbers historically low. Even so, up is up. Expect another increase this week at Texas, primarily because last year’s race aired on FS1 (1.7). Prediction: 2.2.

With both the Rangers and Flyers eliminated from playoff contention, do not expect the NHL to make much of a dent on Elite Eight weekend. Ratings should hover around the season-low 0.5 NBC drew for Flyers-Capitals last weekend. Prediction: 0.6.

The first UFC on ESPN main event had a 0.9 rating in February, opposite the NBA All-Star Game. Expect lower numbers for this week’s second ESPN card, which faces the Elite Eight. Prediction: 0.7.