Ratings Predictions: Men’s Final Four & More

Duke — more specifically Zion Williamson — was the premier attraction in the college basketball season. The Blue Devils played in the four most-watched regular season games, and six of the top seven. Once the tournament started, they played in the most-watched first and second round games under the current TV format, the most-watched regional semifinal since 2015, and the most-watched regional final since 2005.

CBS had to know they were on borrowed time with the Blue Devils, given how lucky Duke was to get by UCF in round two and Virginia Tech in round three. That luck ran out against Michigan State last Sunday, and combined with losses by Kentucky and Gonzaga, has left CBS with quite possibly the exact opposite of what it was hoping for at the start of last weekend.

The ideal Final Four, from a ratings perspective, will usually include at least one of the upper-crust teams: Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina. The last Final Four with none of those teams was in 2013, and ratings held up well. Lest one consider that an encouraging sign for Saturday’s games, remember that year’s field was considerably stronger, with three traditional teams (Louisville, Michigan and Syracuse) and a Cinderella (Wichita State).

Michigan State is the only traditional team left in the field, but the other three are no Cinderellas. Just solid teams without any recent history making it this far. That does not bode well for CBS, which is likely to gain a Pyrrhic victory this weekend. Ratings will assuredly increase over last year on cable, but the numbers should sink from the last time it carried the games two years ago.

#3 Texas Tech-#2 Michigan State (8:49p Sat). Absent a hook, like a traditional power (Duke, Kentucky) a superstar player (Zion Williamson) or a Cinderella story (Loyola-Chicago a year ago), the biggest factor in the ratings is going to be quality of play. Texas Tech and Michigan State are expected to play each other close Saturday night, but as anyone who remembers Spurs-Pistons can tell you, tight defensive battles do not easily resonate in the Nielsens. In the same window last year, Villanova-Kansas had a 6.8 on cable. Two years ago, UNC-Oregon had a 10.4 on CBS. Prediction: 9.0.

#5 Auburn-#1 Virginia (6:09p Sat). Auburn is the closest thing to an underdog story in the Final Four, and their play so far this tournament has been entertaining. The Tigers face a Virginia squad with the most compelling story of the weekend, a quest for redemption after last year’s historic loss to the #16 seed UMBC. With both teams coming off of overtime classics last week, the game has potential to deliver a solid number. CBS should have considered putting it in the late window. Last year on cable, Michigan-Loyola (Chicago) had a 7.2. Two years ago on CBS, Gonzaga-South Carolina had an 8.5. Prediction: 8.3.

UConn’s absence from the national championship game is no longer a shock. On the one hand, that means their semifinal loss Friday night generated none of the national attention that their upset losses did last year (to Notre Dame) or two years ago (to Mississippi State). On the other hand, it also means that women’s college basketball is back to health, after an era of Huskies drudgery that made even the NBA look fresh and unpredictable by comparison.

Sunday’s matchup of Baylor and Notre Dame is a rematch of the 2012 final, which earned a 2.7 rating — the second-highest for the title game since 2004. Brittney Griner had something to do with that. This year’s game will not fare as well, but look for ratings to edge last year’s Notre Dame-Mississippi State matchup (2.0). Prediction: 2.2.

The first ever women’s golf event at Augusta National has generated a fair amount of attention this week. Can that translate into ratings? Last year’s highest women’s golf rating was a 0.7 for the final round of the Women’s British Open. Given the novelty, and the lack of competition early Saturday afternoon, the ANWA has a shot at topping that number. Prediction: 0.7.

NASCAR ratings have been trending upward so far in 2019, but it is a safe bet that Sunday’s Bristol ratings will decline sharply. Not only is the race airing on cable for the first time this year, but because of rainouts the past two seasons, comparisons will be to 2016 — a lifetime ago for NASCAR. The 2016 race had a 3.4 rating on FOX, exceeding every race but the Daytona 500 this season. Prediction: 1.7.

ABC had months to flex this game out. The Timberwolves were bad from the first month of the season onward. How low will the ratings go? The all-time record low for the NBA on broadcast television is a 0.9 for Thunder-Rockets two years ago. That game aired opposite the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight. Sunday’s numbers should come in a couple of tenths higher than that. Prediction: 1.1.