Ratings predictions for Memorial Day weekend, including the Indianapolis 500, Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals, and Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final. Can NBC reverse the Indy 500’s downward trend?
All times Eastern. Last week’s results at the bottom of the page.
Indianapolis 500 (Noon Sun NBC)
One of the oldest complaints about ESPN is its penchant for self-promotion, but that critique misses a key point. The network really only promotes three things: football, the NBA, and Stephen A. Smith (go back a generation and it was football, Yankees-Red Sox, and SportsCenter). If you are not part of the holy trinity of ESPN programming, you do not exist.
For events like the Indy 500, ESPN’s promotion left much to be desired. An ad here or there, a prominent face as the emcee, and that was about it. New rightsholder NBC has lavished the event with more pre-race hype than it has seen in years, including far more frequent commercials (eight alone during the Kentucky Derby, according to the Indianapolis Star); cutaways and on-site interviews during NBC’s other sports programs; and a star-studded lineup that includes Mike Tirico (whom ESPN never saw fit to assign to the event), Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Danica Patrick.
IndyCar is no doubt hoping the move to NBC will have the same impact on the 500 that it did for horse racing’s Triple Crown, which was languishing on ABC in the late 1990s and promptly experienced a resurgence once NBC acquired the rights. The real question is, what constitutes a resurgence? The added promotion should help ratings increase over last year’s record-low 3.1. The 2017 rating of 3.4 is in play. But can NBC alone really get the ratings back to 2016’s 3.9, or even 2015’s 4.2? It seems doubtful. Prediction: 3.5.
NBA East Finals: Bucks-Raptors Game 6 (8:30p Sat TNT)
Toronto does not count toward U.S. television ratings and Milwaukee is one of the smallest major sports markets in the country. Not surprisingly, the Eastern Conference Finals has been a weak draw. Ratings for the series have ranged from historically bad (Game 2 had a 2.8, the lowest for any conference final game since 2007) to merely decent (Game 5 had a series-high 3.8).
Since 2005, the lowest rated conference final Game 6 also involved the Raptors — their 36-point loss to the Cavaliers in 2016 (3.5). It is safe to assume Saturday’s game will do better, if for no other reason than it should be much closer. Even so, do not expect much of an improvement. Prediction: 3.9.
Stanley Cup Final: Blues-Bruins Game 1 (8p Mon NBC)
With the Blackhawks’ dominance years in the rearview mirror, and the Penguins and Capitals both eliminated in the first round, the Bruins have been the dominant draw of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Boston has played in seven of the nine highest rated games of what has been a strong postseason for NBC Sports. Viewership had been trending at record-high levels until a shorter-than-usual conference final round; the postseason is currently the fifth-most watched on record.
Boston alone can anchor a Stanley Cup Final, but the Bruins have a decent opponent in St. Louis. The Blues are not necessarily a marquee draw, but they are a traditional team with a strong local fanbase (their Game 6 win over San Jose topped a 20 rating locally despite airing on NBCSN). Expect the series to build on the solid numbers for Capitals-Golden Knights last year and Penguins-Predators two years ago. Game 1 should end up as the highest rated opener since 2015, even if there is a competing NBA Game 7. Prediction: 3.1.
NASCAR Cup Series: Charlotte (6p Sun FOX)
After years of freefall, NASCAR ratings have started to stabilize. Of the 11 races that have been run as scheduled, four have posted increases, two have been flat, and five have declined. That is not exactly cause for celebration, but it does represent a marked turnaround from last year. Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600 seems a virtual lock to increase. Last year’s race (2.3) aired opposite an NBA conference final Game 7 involving LeBron James. Simply removing that competition should be enough to boost the rating by a few tenths. Prediction: 2.6.
F1 Monaco GP (8a Sun ESPN; 3:30p Sun ABC)
Sunday’s Monaco Grand Prix should be a mixed bag for ESPN/ABC. Expect ratings for the live airing on ESPN to be on par with last year, while the encore presentation on ABC should suffer without an Indy 500 lead-in. Last year, the live broadcast had a 0.5 rating and the encore a 1.0. Prediction: 0.6 and 0.7.
Last week’s predictions
— PGA Championship: third and final rounds. Predictions: 2.5 and 3.7; result: 2.3 and 3.3
— NBA West Finals: Warriors-Blazers Game 3. Prediction: 4.0; result: 4.2
— NBA East Finals: Bucks-Raptors Game 3. Prediction: 3.2; result: 3.7
— The Preakness Stakes. Prediction: 3.5; result: 3.4
— NHL West Final: Blues-Sharks Game 5. Prediction: 1.2; result: 1.1
— MLB: Mostly Cubs-Nationals or Astros-Red Sox. Prediction: 1.4; result: 1.4
