Ratings predictions: Women’s World Cup Final & more

It may be an understatement to call this year’s Women’s World Cup a success story for Fox Sports. With the tournament taking place in France, six hours ahead of Eastern time, no match has started later than 3 PM ET. Four years ago, when the tournament took place in U.S.-adjacent Canada, a number of matches aired in primetime — including every match involving the U.S. women’s national team.

The schedule alone seemed to ensure a decline for this year’s tournament. Yet entering Sunday’s final, viewership is up six percent from 2015.

Credit the USWNT? Yes and no. While the team has been by far the top draw of the tournament, generating three of the ten largest Women’s World Cup audiences on record, viewership has declined for four of their six matches. The 2015 numbers would have been hard to match in any circumstance, but especially given the time zone issue.

It is the non-U.S. matches that have put up a stronger showing than four years ago, helped by the comparably low bar they have had to clear.

What does that mean for Sunday’s USWNT-Netherlands final? There is no higher bar for soccer in the United States than the 2015 final, which had a 12.9 rating on FOX — the highest ever for a soccer telecast on a single network. (The combined audience of 26.7 million across FOX and Telemundo was also a record). That match started in primetime, while this year’s match will start before Noon. It is a virtual lock that ratings will decline, probably by double-digits.

The numbers should also fall short of the 1999 final, which had an 11.4 in a mid-afternoon window on ABC. The best comparison may be last year’s France-Croatia World Cup Final, which aired in the same Sunday morning window. That match had a 6.8 rating on FOX and a combined audience of 17.83 million viewers across FOX and Telemundo. Prediction: 9.0 (FOX), 17.4M viewers (combined).

Ratings for the Gold Cup final tend to shift dramatically depending on whether it involves the U.S., Mexico, or both. The 2017 U.S.-Jamaica final had a 1.2 rating on Univision and a 1.0 on FS1. Two years earlier, Mexico-Jamaica was a substantially stronger draw on Univision (2.3) and much weaker on FS1 (0.4). With the teams facing each other this year, it stands to reason that both Univision and FS1 will post strong numbers.

Eight years ago, the last time the U.S. and Mexico faced each other in the final, the match had a 3.1 on Univision and a 0.5 on what was then Fox Soccer (now FXX). Prediction: 2.6 and 1.2.

On a day with three major tournament finals, one has to get lost in the shuffle. It stands to reason that it will be the one without the USWNT, USMNT and Mexico. Expect ratings to decline substantially from the Chile-Argentina final on Univision in 2016 (2.8). Prediction: 1.8.

FOX had success airing MLS matches immediately after the World Cup last year. The network is trying it again this weekend, using the Women’s World Cup Final as a lead-in. With FOX likely to earn a stronger rating for Sunday’s final than for any World Cup match it aired last year, expect the MLS to benefit. Airing after the World Cup Final last year, Atlanta-Seattle had a 0.9 rating. Prediction: 1.1.

The NASCAR ratings freefall is over, at least for now. Excluding rainouts, seven of the 15 races this season have increased over last year, the most at this point of the season since 2013. How will Sunday’s Daytona 400 fare? Last year’s 2.7 rating was tied as the worst since at least 1997. Given the trend this season, an uptick is certainly possible. Then again, a 2.8 rating is relatively high for NASCAR nowadays. Prediction: 2.6.

Zion Williamson moved the needle throughout the college basketball season, and one can expect him to have the same impact on NBA ratings. Williamson makes his NBA debut Friday night in a Summer League matchup against his former teammate R.J. Barrett and the Knicks. Expect a strong number by Summer League standards; in the same window last year, Mavericks-Suns had a 0.33. Two years ago, Lonzo Ball‘s Summer League debut had a 0.55. Prediction: 0.58.

MLB on FOX heads into the All-Star break with a plurality of markets getting Cubs-White Sox. So far this season, the “Baseball Night in America” slate has been nothing special. Ratings have ranged from 1.4 to 1.8 — numbers that would once have been considered bad, but now constitute so-so. Expect nothing different this week. Prediction: 1.5.