Ratings predictions for LSU-Alabama and more, including Penn State-Minnesota, the NFL, and the MLS Cup. How high will the ratings rise for the game of the season?
CFB: #2 LSU-#3 Alabama (3:30p Sat CBS)
For the first time since 2011, LSU and Alabama meet as the top two teams in the AP poll, but there are some crucial differences between now and then. For one, the teams are ranked second and third in the College Football Playoff rankings, which take precedence over the AP. For another, the game is scheduled for the afternoon. Eight years ago, CBS pulled out all the stops to get the game into primetime.
Will those factors affect the rating? #1 vs. #2 is an easier sell than #2 vs. #3, but it is hard to imagine anyone but the most casual of fans losing interest for that reason. As for afternoon versus primetime, the highest rated regular season college football game of the past quarter-century aired in the same 3:30 PM ET window — Michigan-Ohio State in 2006 (13.0). If the game is big enough, it will draw in any window.
Does that mean ratings will match or exceed 2011 (11.5)? Not necessarily. Times have changed and big-time sporting events do not draw quite as well as they used to. Still, even a moderately lower rating would rank among the highest in recent memory for a regular season game. Prediction: 10.5.
CFB: #4 Penn State-#17 Minnesota (Noon Sat ABC)
Minnesota’s undefeated run has turned their game against Penn State into a marquee matchup. While the Gophers are not a traditional Big Ten draw, the playoff implications alone should help ratings should soar above last year’s 1.5 for Wisconsin-Penn State. Prediction: 3.0.
CFB: Maryland-#1 Ohio State (Noon Sat FOX)
Now the #1 team in the country thanks to the College Football Playoff committee, Ohio State faces the Maryland team that nearly upset them last season. That game had a strong 3.5 rating on ABC. Do not expect anything similar this time around. The Buckeyes are favored by more than 40. In the same window last year, FOX drew a 3.3 for Michigan State-Ohio State. Prediction: 2.0.
NFL: Vikings-Cowboys (8:20p Sun NBC)
Every single Cowboys game this year has posted an increase over the comparable window last year. Will that streak continue this week? Last year’s game featured Dallas against big market rival Philadelphia, but it did not set an overwhelmingly high bar (11.5). It would not take all that much for Sunday’s clash with Minnesota to do better. Prediction: 11.9.
NFL: mostly Panthers-Packers (4:25p Sun FOX)
FOX was originally set to air Rams-Steelers nationwide Sunday, but Pittsburgh’s struggles led the NFL to flex Panthers-Packers into the late window. Now most of the country gets Aaron Rodgers and company against the resilient Panthers, who are 5-3 despite the absence of Cam Newton. It is clear the Panthers can win without Cam, but can they draw without him? Last year’s comparable window had a 12.1. Prediction: 12.5.
NASCAR Cup Series playoffs: Phoenix (2:30p Sun NBC)
Entering the penultimate race of the season, 13 NASCAR Cup Series races have posted an increase in ratings, 13 have declined, and four have pulled even. Will Sunday’s race break the tie? Last year it had a 2.0 rating, the lowest since at least 2000. Prediction: 2.0.
MLS Cup: Seattle-Toronto (3p Sun ABC)
The MLS Cup returns to ABC for the first time since 2008 as Seattle faces Toronto for the third time in four years. The inclusion of Canadian market Toronto, combined with a shift from primetime to the afternoon, ensures that ratings will drop from last year’s 0.9 on FOX. How far? The last Seattle-Toronto final had a 0.5 rating in the same timeslot, albeit on cable. Prediction: 0.6.
Last week’s results
— NFL: mostly Packers-Chargers. Prediction: 11.5; result: 12.8
— CFB: UGA-UF. Prediction: 4.1; result: 4.2
— CFB: SMU-Memphis. Prediction: 1.8; result: 1.8
— CFB: Oregon-USC. Prediction: 2.0; result: 2.05
— F1 USGP. Prediction: 0.6; result: 0.6
— NASCAR Cup Series: Texas. Prediction: 1.4; result: 1.4
