Ratings predictions: NBA All-Star Weekend and more

The NBA enters All-Star weekend with viewership down double-digits from last year, but that is really the least of its problems in a season scarred by the death of Kobe Bryant. There is a real sense of melancholy surrounding the league right now that will take a long time to fully break. This year’s All-Star weekend will try to balance tributes to Bryant with the usual festivities. TNT’s mic flags this weekend include the jersey numbers #24 for Bryant and #2 for his daughter Gigi surrounded by nine stars, one for each of the people who died in last month’s tragedy. The All-Star uniforms will feature the teams wearing either #24 or #2, with a nine-star patch on the shoulder. The target score in Sunday’s revamped All-Star game will be determined by adding 24 points to the score of the team leading after three quarters. Plus there will be presumably many other tributes.

Needless to say, it will be an All-Star weekend unlike any other. Magic Johnson’s 1992 All-Star appearance carried with it a certain heaviness, given the widespread fear that he would soon pass away from HIV. Yet Johnson was at least there, won the MVP, and as we all know now, is still alive and thriving 28 years later.

There are no silver linings this time around, just the lingering numbness of a tragedy that still seems unbelievable.

As for the trivial business of the TV ratings, it is hard to tell. Viewers have responded in large numbers to Bryant tributes, whether ESPN’s rebroadcast of his final game, or the Lakers’ first home game after his death. Given the ratings trend this season, the All-Star Game would have been a safe bet for a record-low a month ago, falling below last year’s 3.8. Under the current circumstances, perhaps not. Cold comfort. Prediction: 4.0.

Of all the things that have gone wrong in this NBA season, Zion Williamson’s delayed debut is the least terrible. His October meniscus tear hurt ratings for the numerous Pelicans games scheduled for ESPN, TNT and ABC, and will likely result in the team missing out on the playoffs. Still, late is better than never, and Williamson has had a positive impact on the ratings since his late January debut. Can that extend to the NBA Rising Stars Challenge? The bar for success is low. Last year’s edition had a 0.9. Prediction: 1.3.

It might be too much to say that 2019 was a good year for NASCAR, but it certainly was not a bad year, which constitutes a win. Ratings increased for 13 races last season, the most in a single year since 2013. While a greater number of races declined, the trend was a sharp improvement over the previous year.

Can the not-bad times extend into 2020? Last week’s “Clash” at Daytona was a good sign, posting its highest rating in four years (1.5).

Daytona 500 ratings have been so low in recent years that even a 5.4 would represent a three-year high. Truth be told, no result would be surprising this weekend. Under a 5.0? Possible. Over a 6.0? Less possible, but in play. One X factor is XFL competition on ABC, but it is impossible to know how that league will draw in Week 2. So this prediction will be akin to throwing a dart while wearing a blindfold. Prediction: 5.5.

The XFL got off to a promising start in Week 1. The opening game rating of 2.1 not only exceeded last year’s Alliance of American Football League opener (1.9), it was matched by another XFL game the following day. That is no small matter for spring football, where the opening game tends to end up as easily the highest rated in the short histories of the leagues.

Can the league maintain last week’s healthy numbers in Week 2? Yes and no. Saturday’s games should do about as well as last week, but competition from the Daytona 500 and NBA All-Star Game should sink Sunday’s games. Predictions: 2.0 (NY-DC), 1.8 (TB-SEA), 1.4 (DAL-LA) and 0.7 (STL-HOU).

Four of the five NHL games on NBC this season have increased over last year, the lone exception being the Winter Classic. Expect Saturday’s Stadium Series game to join its outdoor counterpart in declining. Kings-Avalanche just does not have the kind of appeal of last year’s game, Penguins-Flyers (1.1). Prediction: 0.8.