Ratings predictions for round two of “The Match,” pitting Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning against Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady. Plus: how will NASCAR and Bundesliga fare in their second weeks back, and can “Lance” hold a candle to “The Last Dance” — or even “Vick”?
“The Match: Champions for Charity” (3p Sun TBS/TNT/TruTV/HLN)
Four of the biggest stars in sports gather for a star-studded charity event Sunday. Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will square off in the latest edition of “The Match,” with Woods and Manning competing against Mickelson and Brady.
Unlike the first edition of “The Match” 18 months ago, which saw Woods and Mickelson go head-to-head on PPV, Sunday’s two-on-two reprise will be widely available via four basic cable channels. In addition, while the original “Match” battled for attention with Thanksgiving weekend college football games, the sequel contends only with NASCAR during a time when live sports has been a rarity.
Last week’s charity golf event involving Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler and Matthew Wolff averaged a 1.5 rating across NBC, Golf Channel and NBCSN. Given the dramatically greater popularity of this week’s participants, plus the holiday weekend, expect substantially bigger numbers this week. Prediction: 3.5.
NASCAR Cup Series at Charlotte (6p Sun FOX)
NASCAR scored its highest non-Daytona rating in three years last weekend at Darlington: a 3.7 for broadcast television’s first live sporting event since March. That number will be hard to match this week. The desperation for live sports that boosted last week’s race may be satisfied by “The Match” earlier in the day. Plus, the novelty and anticipation of NASCAR’s return will surely have tapered off, given that the Coca-Cola 600 will be the third race in just seven days.
Even if not as strong as Darlington, expect Sunday’s race to still hit a multi-year high. The Coca-Cola 600 has not exceeded a 2.8 rating since 2016 (3.4). Prediction: 3.2.
ESPN 30 For 30: “Lance” (9p Sun ESPN/ESPN2)
Coming off of the success of “The Last Dance,” ESPN offers part one of a two-part 30 For 30 film about Lance Armstrong. Nobody expects “Lance” to perform nearly as well as “The Last Dance” — Armstrong at his most beloved was never as popular as Michael Jordan, and his image has hardly been rehabilitated since a 2013 admission of using performance enhancing drugs.
ESPN does not need “Lance” to be its next “Dance,” but simply to perform better than its last 30 For 30, “Vick” earlier this year. That two-part doc averaged a 0.6 rating and 971,000 viewers for part one and a 0.45 and 681,000 for part two. Prediction: 0.8.
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich-Eintracht Frankfurt (12:20p Sat FS1)
The Bundesliga returned last weekend with its two largest FS1 audiences. The numbers were not particularly large — a 0.24 and 365,000 for Dortmund-Schalke and a 0.19 and 361,000 for Union Berlin-Bayern Munich — but those are outsized figures for the Bundesliga on cable. It is likely that much of that success was due to the novelty of having any major soccer after two months of nothing. While that novelty should wear off a bit this week, the Bundesliga remains the only game in town. Expect ratings to remain elevated. Prediction: 0.17.
Last week’s results
— NASCAR Cup Series: Darlington. Prediction: 4.0; result: 3.7
— “The Last Dance,” parts 9 and 10. Prediction: 5.3M vwrs; result: 5.6M
— Golf: “Driving Relief.” Prediction: 3.6; result: 1.5
— UFC Fight Night. Prediction: 0.8; result: 0.75
— Bundesliga: Union Berlin-Bayern Munich. Prediction: 0.21; result: 0.19
