Ratings predictions for the start of the NWSL season and more, including NASCAR’s doubleheader at Pocono and the FA Cup.
NWSL: North Carolina-Portland (12:30p Sat CBS)
Mere hours after the NWSL announced a new television deal with CBS on March 11, the NBA suspended its season and the sports world ground to a halt. The NWSL had been slated to make its CBS (and broadcast television) debut on April 18, the first day of a season that was supposed to last until November 14. Instead, the CBS debut comes on June 27, day one of a season that will last 30 days.
Before the hiatus, the NWSL was a lock to hit all-time viewership highs in its first CBS debut. Nothing has changed. Much has been made about the NWSL being the first US team sport back from hiatus, but the TV deal is the real reason Saturday’s opener is a stone-cold-lock to set a ratings record. The league’s current high-water mark is a mere 180,000 viewers for the 2016 final on FS1. Simply being on broadcast television should shatter that record by default. Prediction: 0.25 rating, 380K viewers.
NASCAR Cup Series: Pocono (3p Sat FOX & 4p Sun FS1)
NASCAR planned from the start of the season to stage both of its Pocono races this weekend. The only change in plans is that the races will air on FOX and FS1, rather than the original network assignment of NBCSN.
Take out the comeback race at Darlington (3.7) and last week’s eventful outing at Talladega (a big-for-Monday 2.1) and NASCAR’s ratings since it returned from hiatus have been middling at best. Do not expect that to change at Pocono. Luckily for NASCAR, recent Pocono ratings have been low enough that at least one increase seems likely. Last year’s first Pocono race had a 1.45 rating and the second a 1.7. Predictions: 1.8 (FOX) and 1.6 (FS1).
PGA Tour: Hartford third and final rounds (3p Sun CBS)
At the tournament formerly known as the Greater Hartford Open, the story all week has been the number of sudden withdrawals from the field. While that continues to loom, a new story has emerged entering the weekend — 50-year-old Phil Mickelson at the top of the leaderboard. Mickelson is no Tiger Woods, but there is no other player on the PGA Tour who can match his drawing power. If he remains in contention, expect ratings to increase a decent amount over last year, when the tournament took place on the same June weekend (1.1 on Saturday, 1.4 on Sunday). Predictions: 1.3 and 1.8.
FA Cup quarterfinal: Manchester United-Norwich (12:30p Sat ESPN)
ESPN acquired rights to a number of international soccer competitions in order to bulk up its ESPN+ subscription service, but in an era lacking live sports, that inventory is now being used to fill time on the mothership itself. German Cup and Serie A matches have aired on ESPN in recent weeks and on Saturday, the network will carry a Manchester United FA Cup match.
So far, ESPN has gotten little boost from the German Cup or Serie A, but English soccer is a bigger draw in the US than its German or Italian equivalents. Plus, Saturday at 12:30 is a far better timeslot than the weekday afternoon windows the other matches have occupied. Expect a solid number. Prediction: 0.42.
UFC Fight Night main event (8p Sat ESPN)
Perhaps one reason UFC ratings have been so underwhelming since returning from hiatus is that there are main events on ESPN nearly every week. Less is often more in sports TV. ESPN averaged a 0.57 for last week’s main event and a 0.56 for another main event the previous weekend. Prediction: 0.55.
Last week’s results
— The Belmont Stakes. Prediction: 5.5; result: 2.0
— ESPY Awards. Prediction: 1.3; result: n.a. (482K viewers)
— EPL: Everton-Liverpool. Prediction: 1.0; result: 0.6
— NASCAR Cup Series: Talladega. Prediction: 2.6; result: 2.1 (Monday)
— PGA Tour: final round of the Heritage. Prediction: 2.2; result: 1.3
— UFC Fight Night. Prediction: 0.52; result: 0.57
— Top Rank Boxing. Prediction: 0.26; result: 0.22
(Header image credit Jamie Smed/Flickr, CC by 2.0)
