Well, at least the Red Sox made it.
Not since the NBA endured the crushing blow of having Jazz/Spurs and Cavaliers/Pistons in its Conference Finals has a sports league had to deal with such an unappealing final four. Major League Baseball started this postseason with teams representing the top four markets in the U.S.; none of those teams remain. Indians/Red Sox and Rockies/Diamondbacks are far from the match-ups FOX and Turner were hoping for.
Losing the New York Yankees is a major blow for FOX. A Yankees/Red Sox ALCS could have drawn NFL-sized numbers, and would have likely dominated the ratings. The Yankees are by far the biggest draw in team sports; one need only look at the ratings for their loss to the Indians in the Division Series to see that. Game 3 between the Yankees and Indians on Sunday drew a 6.0 overnight rating with 8.5 million viewers, the most ever for a baseball playoff game on cable, and the most viewers for a non-football sporting event on cable this year. Yankees’ telecasts averaged a 2.7 rating on FOX during the regular season, nearly 50% higher than the average for games not involving the team.
Pairing the ratings powerhouse Yankees with the Boston Red Sox would have easily given the ALCS its best numbers since 2004 — the last time the Yankees and Red Sox squared off. Games between the Yankees and Red Sox averaged a 3.0 rating on FOX during the regular season (a 30% increase on the full season average of 2.3) and a 3.4 rating on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. The last game the teams played against each other in the playoffs, Game 7 of the ’04 ALCS, drew a 19.1 rating on FOX.
While the Yankees elimination is a crushing to any high ratings hopes, having the Red Sox in the ALCS should cushion the blow somewhat. MLB should retroactively thank the Tigers and Athletics for putting on such a poor, unremarkable show last year; the 5.3 average rating for the ’06 ALCS should be very easy to surpass. The Red Sox may not be the draw they were three years ago, by virtue of the fact that they no longer have a ‘curse’ to draw in curious casual fans, but the team still plays in the #7 market in the U.S., and is one of the most storied franchises in sports.
That being said, any cushion will be slight. Indians/Red Sox will be hard pressed to match even the ratings from the ’05 ALCS between the White Sox and Angels — that series averaged a 7.0 rating for five games.
In an attempt to minimize potentially poor ratings, MLB is using strategic scheduling for the League Championship Series. On days when there are two LCS games, MLB plans to have the first game air at 7:00 PM ET and the second game air at 10:00 — as opposed to the original plan of having one game air at 4:00 and the other at 8:00. Games will draw better ratings at 10:00 than at 4:00, due to many factors — not the least of which is the fact that a 4:00 start time means playing when most potential viewers are at work.
Rockies/Diamondbacks will occupy the 10:00 PM timeslot at least twice, for Games 2 and 4, and Major League Baseball could potentially schedule Game 7 of the series for that timeslot as well. The NLCS is obviously of low priority as a television property this year, as it is a cable-exclusive series involving two small, western markets. Because this is the first LCS ever on cable, there is no bar to pass for good ratings; while TBS could have drawn huge ratings for Cubs/Phillies, the network can be satisfied with a 4.0 average for Rockies/Diamondbacks.
Neither LCS will draw fantastic numbers. However, both series should at least hold their own in the ratings. The real danger now centers on what will become of the World Series. If the Red Sox advance, MLB can breathe a sigh of relief. It would be a significant shock if a series involving the Boston Red Sox were to set a third-straight record low rating for the Fall Classic. However, should the Indians play the Rockies or Diamondbacks, Major League Baseball is almost guaranteed a new record low — and if the ratings fall from last year’s 10.1, MLB would likely see a single-digit average for the World Series.
So far, nearly everything has gone wrong for Major League Baseball during this postseason. While ratings have been great, the big market teams have been eliminated and the Division Series consisted of just thirteen games — the fewest ever. MLB now has to hope the Boston Red Sox manage to knock out Cleveland, so there is at least one popular, big market team in the Fall Classic. If not, the World Series could join the ’07 Stanley Cup Finals and NBA Finals in the ratings basement.
