Ratings predictions: NFL on Thanksgiving and more

The NFL’s annual Thanksgiving Day slate featured only one game between teams above .500, and it was postponed. As a result, the league presents its least-appealing Thanksgiving slate in recent years: a doubleheader featuring teams with a combined 13-27 record, the best of which is 4-6 Detroit.

One can usually throw out the records on Thanksgiving, but is there a limit? With sports ratings down nearly across the board since March, it is hard to imagine such an unappealing pair of games keeping pace with last year (Bears-Lions: 12.3; Bills-Cowboys: 13.5).

The real question is how low the numbers will go. This is the NFL, so the worst-case scenario is still far better than anything else on TV. Keeping that caveat in mind, it has been 12 years since either of the traditional daytime Thanksgiving games averaged less than an 11.0 rating. Predictions: 9.7 (Texans-Lions) and 10.0 (Washington-Dallas).

What was supposed to be the Thanksgiving nightcap — a rivalry game between the undefeated Steelers and the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens — has instead been rescheduled for Sunday afternoon. Steelers-Ravens was a shoo-in for a double-digit rating in its original timeslot but will now be lucky to get halfway there in a window that features competing games on both CBS and FOX. Prediction: 5.3.

The annual matchup of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes looks a bit different this year thanks to Brady’s move to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have lost a bit of luster due to recent primetime defeats, but they remain a contender at 7-4. As for the Chiefs, not much needs to be said about a 9-1 defending champion.

Last year’s meeting between the QBs — back when Brady was still on the Patriots — averaged a 16.1 rating, the kind of number one took for granted back during the NFL’s mid-2010s peak. It was (and is) the NFL’s highest regular season rating since 2016. This year’s game will have a hard time matching that number, as NFL ratings are down this year and the Buccaneers are not the Patriots. Even so, a season-high seems plausible. The current mark is a 13.1 for Brady’s Tampa Bay debut in Week 1. Prediction: 13.5.

No sport was affected more by this year’s cancellations and postponements than college basketball, which lost its entire postseason in March and has been idle ever since, even as other sports have returned in modified form. The impact of losing an entire postseason should not be understated. Even though the cancellation was not controversial — especially as compared to the loss of the 1994 World Series or 2005 Stanley Cup Final — knowing how last season ended might make it tough to commit to this one. How much will any of these matchups matter to viewers if there is no guarantee the season actually runs to completion?

An early test comes Thursday with a top-ten Thanksgiving Day matchup between Gonzaga and Kansas on FOX. Truth be told, it will be impossible to come to any real conclusions about the health of the sport based on a single, pre-conference play matchup. Still, one would expect ratings to — at minimum — double last year’s FOX opener of Florida-Butler (0.37). Prediction: 0.9.

ABC gets a marquee Black Friday matchup as #2 Notre Dame faces North Carolina. Notre Dame’s presence alone should help ratings cruise past last year’s 1.5 for Cincinnati-Memphis; if the game is competitive, even better (Notre Dame is favored by less than a touchdown). So far this season, Notre Dame’s ABC games have averaged ratings of 1.4 (vs. Pittsburgh), 2.2 (vs. Georgia Tech) and 3.0 (vs. Boston College). Prediction: 3.1.

Thanksgiving weekend usually features college football’s greatest traditional rivalries. That is not the case this year. Inter-conference rivalries like Florida-Florida State are on ice. A century-long tradition between Wisconsin and Minnesota was postponed. Arguably the biggest rivalry of them all, Michigan-Ohio State, is still (presumably) two weeks away.

The one rivalry game still on for this weekend is the Iron Bowl, though the biggest name on either team — Nick Saban — will be watching from home. Expect one of the best ratings of the season, but it is hard to imagine the numbers coming close to last year’s 6.3. Prediction: 4.2.

It goes without saying that ratings will drop for the third edition of “The Match.” The previous edition 1) aired on four networks, 2) aired during the deadest period in sports history and 3) featured both Tiger Woods and Tom Brady. While Friday’s field has some starpower — with Steph Curry and Charles Barkley joining the returning Peyton Manning and Phil Mickelson — Woods and Brady are at another level.

It also goes without saying that nobody involved is expecting numbers on the level of May, when the four-network presentation had a 3.5 rating. If TNT can pull even a third of that number, one imagines that will be good enough. Prediction: 1.0.