Ratings predictions: Labor Day weekend CFB and more

A year ago, Labor Day weekend featured the NBA and NHL playoffs, the Kentucky Derby and a pittance of college football. Just four games aired on Nielsen-rated television, none of which exceeded a 0.7 rating. It was as bleak weekend presaging a miserable season.

A year later, Labor Day weekend features the usual slate of marquee games, including the kind of interconference matchups sorely lacking last season. Already, one game has exceeded six million viewers (Ohio State – Minnesota on FOX Thursday). Last season, it took until mid-October before any game topped that mark. Given the matchups on schedule the rest of today, tomorrow and Monday, it seems a fair bet that Thursday’s game will not be alone.

CFB: #1 Alabama – #14 Miami (3:30p Sat ABC): Perennial power Alabama opens its title defense against a Miami team endlessly trying to recapture past glories. While a top 25 matchup, this is not expected to be much of a game. The Tide is favored by three touchdowns. In the same window two years ago, Duke-Alabama drew a 2.8 rating and 4.64 million viewers. While Miami is a considerably higher profile opponent than Duke, expect mixed results for this game. Viewership should surpass 2019 – aided by the out-of-home viewing now included in all Nielsen viewership figures – but ratings (which do not include out-of-home) may well fall short. Prediction: 2.6, 4.75M.

CFB: #5 Georgia – #3 Clemson (7:30p Sat ABC): A top five matchup highlights the Labor Day weekend schedule as Georgia faces Clemson. If the game is as close as expected (Clemson is favored by just a field goal), expect big numbers. Two years ago, Oregon-Auburn drew a 4.0 and 6.88 million in the same window. Prediction: 4.0, 7.03M.

CFB: #9 Notre Dame – FSU (7:30p Sun ABC): A top-ten ranked Notre Dame team is always good for ratings. Even coming off a 3-6 season last year, FSU remains one of the most recognizable programs in FBS. Do not expect the kind of massive numbers Notre Dame-Texas drew a few years ago, but an increase over 2019 seems likely. That year, Houston-Oklahoma drew a 3.0 and 5.44 million. (In the same window last year – aka bizarro world – ABC drew a 2.9 and 5.43 million for Game 2 of a Rockets-Lakers NBA playoff series). Prediction: 3.2, 5.85M.

CFB: Louisville – Mississippi (8p Mon ESPN): Last year’s Labor Day college football game was a miserable 55-3 BYU rout of Navy in an empty stadium with the NBA and NHL playoffs as competition. It had a mere 0.7 and 1.15 million. All Louisville-Mississippi will have to do to surpass that is make it to kickoff. Expect ratings and viewership to fall short of Notre Dame-Louisville two years ago (3.3, 5.68M). Prediction: 2.2, 4.01M.

College football takes center stage this weekend, but Major League Baseball has a crucial matchup in the Dodgers-Giants rivalry Sunday night. Even with college football competition, look for ratings and viewership to surpass Cardinals-Cubs on the same weekend last year (0.7, 1.21M). Prediction: 0.9, 1.56M.

BIG3 viewership has not exactly been great in its return from hiatus, with viewership hovering in the 400-500K range, but that compares somewhat well to the much more-established WNBA and MLS. Just last Saturday, the BIG3 had a larger audience on CBS in the afternoon (531K) than MLS did on FOX in primetime (504K). The last BIG3 title game two years ago averaged a 0.48 rating and 674,000 viewers. Prediction: 0.39, 600K.

When NASCAR initially moved its Darlington race back to the Sunday of Labor Day weekend in 2015, it was open territory free from marquee competition. The 2015 race had a 3.7 rating and 5.92 million viewers on NBC, the kind of numbers that now qualify as a staggering success. The very next year, ABC began airing college football games on the night, and last year – even with college football largely dark – carried an NBA playoff game. As a result of the competition (and a move to cable) Darlington now makes barely more than a ripple in the ratings. Last year’s edition had a mere 1.4 and 2.43 million. Do not expect much better this time. Prediction: 1.4, 2.54M.

Golf ratings were surging for much of the past year, majors excluded, but the momentum ground to a halt over the past two months. Thirteen of the past 15 windows on broadcast television have declined, last week’s dramatic final round at the BMW Championship being an exception. If Patrick Cantlay and John Rahm can duplicate last week’s drama between Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau, perhaps the Tour Championship can buck the trend as well. Last year’s final round, which aired on Labor Day itself, had a 2.4 and 4.01 million in NBC’s main 3-6 PM ET window. Prediction: 2.2, 3.79M.