Ratings predictions for a 15 seed in the Elite Eight, Mike Krzyzewski’s final run, F1 and more.
When you factor in the impact of Nielsen (correctly) accounting for out-of-home viewing, plus the altered schedules and fanless atmospheres of the past two years, plus the absence of out-of-home measurement in prior years, it is fair to look at any current superlatives with a skeptical eye. With that said, viewership for the first weekend of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament increased 12% from last year to the highest level in five. Now, is this really the most-watched tournament in five years? With out-of-home viewing included, one imagines that the Zion Williamson-fueled tournament of three years ago would probably outpace this year’s version. Nonetheless, after the past two years, any five-year high constitutes a success story — even if it requires an apples-to-oranges comparison.
Onto this week’s predictions:
Can Saint Peter’s upset the Oscars?
Saint Peter’s has slain many dragons on its historic run to the Elite Eight, but can it take down the Academy Awards? As far as dragons go, the Oscars is far less intimidating now than it used to be, averaging just ten million viewers last year (pending revision) — a far cry from the 40 million it drew within the past decade.
Assuming the Oscars bounces back from last year’s low – a fair assumption, given the trend — it is fair to expect a substantially stronger audience than last year. Probably not back to the 20 million mark, but any audience in the 15-17 million range would be on the higher end of what the Elite Eight is capable of. Michigan State-Duke three years ago mustered 16.2 million in the late Sunday window, and that was with Zion Williamson involved.
The Peacocks’ run is, along with Mike Krzyzewski’s swan song, the story of the tournament. If they keep things close with blueblood UNC Sunday — or win — viewership may well keep pace with the Zion-era figures of three years ago (household ratings should lag further behind 2019’s 9.4, as that figure by definition does not include out-of-home viewing). That may still not be enough to keep pace with the Oscars, even if the ceremony remains in record-low territory.
NCAA men’s Elite Eight: #15 Saint Peter’s – #8 UNC (5:05p Sun CBS). Prediction: 8.0, 15.2M viewers (Academy Awards: 8.2, 16.7M).
How will Duke fare on TBS?
Duke plays a regional final on TBS for the first time as they take on Arkansas Saturday night. The Saturday night regional finals on TBS have been a decidedly lesser draw than the Sunday afternoon games on CBS, with one exception — undefeated Kentucky played a regional final on TBS in 2015 that averaged nearly 15 million viewers and matched the following day’s Duke-Gonzaga game on CBS. Can Coach K’s last dance have a similar impact? The same window in 2019 (Virginia-Purdue) averaged 10.5 million.
NCAA men’s Elite Eight: #4 Arkansas – #2 Duke (8:49p Sat TBS). Prediction: 6.7, 12.5M.
Can F1 keep this up?
Formula 1 got off to an impressive start last weekend with nearly 1.4 million viewers for the season opener from Bahrain. With this week’s controversial Saudi Arabia race beginning after Noon ET, how high can this week’s numbers go?
F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix (12:55p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 0.8, 1.34M.
More predictions
NCAA men’s Elite Eight: #10 Miami – #1 Kansas (2:20p Sun CBS). This is a low-key matchup with little juice going in. The same 2019 window (Auburn-Kentucky) averaged 10.5 million. Prediction: 5.4, 9.75M.
NCAA women’s Elite Eight: #2 UConn – #1 NC State (7p Mon ESPN). UConn’s return to the Elite Eight figures to be less of a draw than last year, when they beat Baylor in an epic that averaged 1.7 million (pending revision) — the largest audience for any women’s game outside of the Final Four since 2011. Prediction: 0.8, 1.37M.
NASCAR Cup Series: COTA (3:30p Sun FOX). NASCAR returns to Circuit of the Americas for a second-straight year, this time on FOX. Last year’s race aired on FS1 and averaged 2.36 million (pending revision). The move to FOX alone will result in much bigger numbers. Prediction: 2.3, 3.67M.
Previous predictions
— Daytona 500. Prediction: 4.8, 9.19M; result: 4.7, 8.87M.
— NBA All-Star Game. Prediction: 3.7, 7.14M; result: 3.1, 6.28M.
— Beijing Winter Olympics Closing Ceremony. Prediction: 4.1, 7.43M; result: 3.6, 6.57M.
— WCBB: Tennessee – South Carolina. Prediction: 543K viewers; result: 876K.
— Int’l Soccer: USWNT – New Zealand. Prediction: 715K viewers; result: 648K.
