Ratings predictions for the second half of a weekend full of Game 7s. How high will the viewership rise for Bucks-Celtics? How will TNT and TBS fare with their competing Game 7s?
How high will Bucks-Celtics go?
In 20 years carrying the NBA, ABC has carried just eight second round Game 7s — and that is not for lack of opportunities. There have been 21 such games over that span, with a plurality (12) airing on TNT. The relative lack of games on broadcast represents a missed opportunity, given the broadcast networks have a higher viewership ceiling than their cable counterparts. Last year’s Bucks-Nets Game 7 averaged a strong 6.91 million viewers on TNT (pending Nielsen revision), but the same game in the same window on ABC would surely have been good for a few hundred thousand more viewers — at least.
The gap between broadcast and cable is not the be-all and end-all. The only two times ABC and TNT have aired semifinal Game 7s in the same day — a decade apart in 2009 and 2019 — the primetime TNT game averaged more viewers than the afternoon ABC game. It is worth noting that both years, TNT had the better game (Orlando’s upset of Boston rather than the Lakers’ rout of Houston in 2009; Toronto’s all-time classic win over Philadelphia rather than Portland-Denver in ’19.)
It is certainly true that one cannot just plop any Game 7 onto broadcast television and expect big numbers. ABC’s previous semifinal Game 7s have largely consisted of relatively low-profile matchups (Portland-Denver in ’19, Miami-Toronto in ’16, Memphis-Oklahoma City in ’11) or unexpectedly-competitive mismatches (Boston against #8 Philadelphia in 2012, the Lakers against the injury-riddled Rockets in ’09, Detroit against LeBron’s first Cavs playoff team in ’06).
Not the case this year. Bucks-Celtics has been the best-played series of the second round and pits the defending champions against the league’s most storied franchise. Only once before has ABC aired such a strong Game 7 at this point of the postseason — Cavaliers-Celtics in 2008, when LeBron and the defending conference champions dueled Paul Pierce and Boston’s “Big Three.” That game averaged 8.70 million viewers, trailing only Cavaliers-Pistons two years earlier (8.88M) as the top second round Game 7 since 2001.
With out-of-home viewership the accelerant on the NBA’s ratings resurgence, an audience north of eight million seems likely for Sunday’s game — particularly if it is as close as the others have been.
NBA Playoffs: Bucks-Celtics Game 7 (3:30p Sun ABC). Prediction: 4.7 rating, 8.62M viewers.
How will the Turner networks split their big night?
Turner Sports is a bit under the radar in the discussion of sports TV supremacy, but it is not every day that sibling cable networks carry competing Game 7s. The closest ESPN ever came was in 2004, when the flagship network carried Pistons-Nets Game 7 while ESPN2 aired Lightning-Flyers Game 6. On Sunday night, TBS has Game 7 of Penguins-Rangers in the NHL’s first round and TNT Game 7 of Mavericks-Suns in the NBA’s second round. The NBA will of course win the head-to-head, but the NHL should nonetheless score one of its better cable figures in recent memory.
The NHL has not often scheduled its playoff games with American television in mind. Nearly all of the first round Game 7s in the NBC era aired during the workweek, setting a fairly low bar for TBS to pass Sunday night. Given Penguins-Rangers has been one of the best first round NHL draws on cable — regularly topping the one million viewer mark — it is fair to expect a historically strong number. The top first round Game 7 on NBCSN (Hurricanes-Capitals in 2019) averaged 1.64 million viewers. That number should be in play.
As for Mavericks-Suns, viewership will largely depend on a competitive game. Phoenix has blown out Dallas in all three of its home games, though those were late-breaking blowouts in some cases (Phoenix led by single-digits in the fourth quarter of Game 2 before pulling away). Do not expect viewership to match either of last year’s Game 7s on TNT, which involved bigger-market teams and more compelling narratives, but the network should still deliver its top audience of the playoffs. The current cable high this postseason is 5.3 million for Warriors-Grizzlies Game 2 (pending results for Friday’s Game 6s).
NBA Playoffs: Mavericks-Suns Game 7 (8p Sun TNT). Prediction: 3.2, 5.94M;
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Penguins-Rangers Game 7 (7p Sun TBS). Prediction: 1.1, 1.94M.
More predictions
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Stars-Flames Game 7 (9:30p Sun ESPN2). The NHL’s new media rights deal has been a major success for the league, but a Game 7 on ESPN2 really should not happen. Given the matchup and the network, do not expect particularly big numbers by Game 7 standards. Prediction: 0.45, 908K.
Sunday Night Baseball: Giants-Cardinals (7p Sun ESPN). Sunday Night Baseball viewership is up four percent this year, but on a crowded night of sporting events do not expect a particularly big number for Giants-Cardinals. Prediction: 0.61, 1.02M.
Previous predictions
— Final round of the Masters. Prediction: 5.8, 10.45M; result: 5.8, 10.17M.
— MLB: Red Sox-Yankees: Prediction: 1.85M (190K for “KayRod”); result: 2.48M (264K “KayRod”)
— NBA: Pacers-Nets. Prediction: 0.39, 640K; result: 0.51, 903K.
— NBA: Warriors-Pelicans. Prediction: 0.62, 1.24M; result: 0.57, 987K.
— NHL: Predators-Penguins. Prediction: 0.21, 375K; result: 0.25, 462K.
