Ratings predictions for the USMNT in the World Cup knockout stage, college football’s conference championship games and Week 13 of the NFL season.
How will the USMNT fare in a Saturday morning window?
World Cup ratings are far exceeding the low expectations set when the winter dates were announced years ago. Viewership is up sharply from the previous World Cup on both Fox and Telemundo, with the former averaging the highest audience on record for U.S. group stage matches (including pre-match coverage). The return of the U.S. after nearly a decade, not to mention the inclusion of out-of-home viewing, is undoubtedly greasing the skids. Nevertheless, this World Cup was supposed to be a ratings disaster given the time of year — hence FIFA awarding FOX the 2026 tournament as a consolation — and has instead delivered some of the best numbers for soccer in recent memory on both English and Spanish-language TV.
Considering how poorly other traditional summer events have fared during football season — whether in the chaos of two years ago or as far back as two decades ago, when the Summer Olympics ran in September and October — it is fair to call this World Cup an unqualified success.
The U.S. win over Iran Tuesday ensures at least one massive knockout stage audience on FOX. When the USMNT made the round of 16 in 2014, their loss to Belgium averaged a combined 21.6 million viewers across ESPN (16.5M) and Univision (5.1M) in a Tuesday afternoon timeslot (excludes pre-match coverage).
Saturday morning is of course not the best window for live sports, but one would think it a better timeslot than the middle of the workday, as it is presumably easier to get viewers to wake up early than to take off early. Plus, the 10 AM ET start time at least allows the game to avoid tussling with college football’s conference championship games. The weekend timeslot and the addition of out-of-home should put the game in striking distance of those lofty 2014 numbers, if a bit short of that lofty bar.
— FIFA World Cup: USMNT-Netherlands (10a Sat FOX/Telemundo). Prediction: 15.7M on FOX, 4.2M on Telemundo (excluding pre-match coverage).
What to expect from college football’s championship Saturday
College football’s conference championship week opened with a big upset on Friday as Utah knocked USC out of playoff contention. Can the rest of the weekend measure up?
With Michigan and Georgia comfortable favorites, it is fair to expect lower-than-usual numbers for the Big Ten and SEC title games. At the very least, it seems highly unlikely that either game will measure up to last year — when the former averaged more than 11 million and the latter more than 15 — unless there is a major upset in the making. (For the SEC title game, even a thriller is unlikely to match last year’s national championship preview between Alabama and Georgia.)
Saturday’s most interesting game on paper is TCU-Kansas State, with the Horned Frogs favored by a mere field goal. It may not the most attractive Big 12 pairing — that distinction goes to the two teams leaving the conference, Oklahoma and Texas — but a close game has a good shot at a multi-year high in a standalone Noon ET window (though World Cup competition could be a drag). The Big 12 title game has not cracked the nine million mark since Oklahoma played Texas in the game four years ago.
— Big 12 Championship: #3 TCU-#10 Kansas State (Noon Sat ABC). Prediction: 9.04M viewers.
— SEC Championship: #1 Georgia-#14 LSU (4p Sat CBS). Prediction: 12.12M viewers.
— Big Ten Championship: #2 Michigan-Purdue (8p Sat FOX). Prediction: 8.76M viewers.
Can the Cowboys make up for the Colts on Sunday night?
The NFL had a bit too much faith in the Colts’ acquisition of Matt Ryan in the offseason, giving Indianapolis a number of primetime games — including a second-straight this weekend. Luckily for NBC, the Colts’ opponent Sunday night is the NFL’s most-watched franchise, the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys’ presence should keep ratings in range of last year’s comparable Broncos-Colts game, which averaged about 17.5 million viewers.
Earlier in the day, CBS has an AFC Championship rematch as the Chiefs face the Bengals. Expect a solid outing that outpaces last year’s ~21.1 million for coverage featuring Ravens-Steelers.
FOX has a marquee singleheader as 60% of the country will get either Titans-Eagles or Dolphins-49ers. The current season-high for the singleheader is ‘just’ 16.4 million.
— NFL: Colts-Cowboys (8:20p Sun NBC). Prediction: 18.8M.
— NFL: mostly Chiefs-Bengals (4:25p Sun CBS). Prediction: 22.5M.
— NFL: mostly Titans-Eagles or Dolphins-49ers (1/4p Sun FOX). Prediction: 17.5M.
Previous predictions
— NFL: Giants-Cowboys. Prediction: 42.3M; result: 42.1M.
— NFL: Bills-Lions. Prediction: 28.5M; result: 31.8M.
— NFL: Patriots-Vikings. Prediction: 21.9M; result: 24.8M.
— FIFA WC: USMNT-England. Prediction: 14.0M (FOX), 4.8M (TEL); result: 17.2M and 4.6M
— CFB: Michigan-Ohio State. Prediction: 19.4M; result: 17.1M.
— CFB: Notre Dame-USC. Prediction: 10.1M; result: 6.68M.
— CFB: Auburn-Alabama. Prediction: 9.0M; result: 6.27M.
— CFB: UCLA-Cal. Prediction: 4.0M; result: 3.27M.
