Overnight ratings, also known as metered market ratings, measure only the top 56 major television markets in the United States. Overnight ratings essentially measure the numbers from urban, well-populated cities. To quote USA Today’s Michael Hiestand, “Overnight ratings are like exit polls in elections ? they don’t always predict final results. Because they’re based on viewing in 55 urban TV markets ? representing 69% of U.S. households ? they’re skewed toward what city slickers are watching.”
Overnight ratings can be a good indicator of a sport’s popularity in urban or rural settings. The overnight ratings for NASCAR are typically lower than the final ratings (which factor in small markets). Overnight ratings for the NBA are usually much higher than final ratings. What does that mean? NASCAR is very popular in smaller markets, while the NBA is not.
Here is a comparison of the overnight and final ratings from the last week.
NASCAR on FOX: 4.1 overnight rating, 4.4 final rating
NBA on ABC: 3.9 overnight rating, 3.0 final rating
MLB on FOX: 3.6 overnight rating, 3.2 final rating
In the top 56 markets in the country, the NBA Playoffs beat Yankees/Red Sox, though NASCAR still ended up with the higher rating — barely. When taking into account the smaller markets, the NBA’s rating plummeted 23%, while the Yankees/Red Sox game fell 11%. The rating for the NASCAR game increased 7%.
From this, one can gather that NASCAR is more popular in smaller markets than in larger markets. The NBA is very unpopular in smaller markets when compared to larger markets, and baseball is as well, though to a lesser extent.
If one goes back another week, there would be the same results.
NASCAR on FOX: 5.4 overnight rating, 5.6 final rating
NBA on ABC: 2.9 overnight rating, 2.2 final rating
MLB on FOX: 2.6 overnight rating, 2.4 final rating
Once again, NASCAR drew final rating higher than the overnight rating. Meanwhile, the NBA drew a higher overnight than baseball, but a lower final rating.
So which number is more valid? One would imagine that the final rating would be more telling of a sport’s overall health than the overnight number. However, the health of a sport in big, metropolitan cities is much more important than the health of a sport in a rural, sparsely-populated market. It matters much more to the NBA that ratings for the Finals are poor in Boston than it would if the ratings for the Finals were poor in Tallahassee.
In the past several years, NASCAR and the Indianapolis 500 have gone head to head. And on occasion, the Indy 500 has drawn a higher overnight rating, while NASCAR finished with the higher final rating. Last year, the margin of victory in the overnights was 0.5; 5.2 for the Indy 500 and 4.7 for NASCAR. When the final ratings came out, the results flip-flopped. NASCAR drew a 5.1, and the Indy 500 drew a 5.0. Should the IRL feel encouraged or discouraged? In the big cities, the Indy 500 beat NASCAR — that has to count for something, right?
That depends on who the sport is attempting to attract. The NBA was never a rural league, instead depending on big city flash and glitz. Baseball is big city league as well — consider the most popular teams, Boston, the Cubs and both New York teams, and the fact that 95% of all media coverage focuses on them — but with a strong rural base (which accounts for the fact that while final ratings are lower than overnights, the ratings do not plummet like they do in the NBA). NASCAR gets high ratings regardless of the setting, but the sport has a very strong base in smaller markets, which accounts for the fact that the overnights are higher than the final ratings.
