First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, Heat/Bulls Game 1. Prediction: 2.5. Final rating: 2.2. Heat/Bulls gets the lowest rating in that timeslot since 2005, when 76ers/Pistons Game 1 drew a 2.1. Yankees/Red Sox beat this game by 45% and a full ratings point (3.2 to 2.2).
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, Lakers/Suns Game 1. Prediction: 3.7. Final rating: 3.0. It is not surprising that ABC is drawing poor ratings for NBA coverage, considering that sister station ESPN has been talking about everything but the NBA Playoffs lately, whether it be Yankees/Red Sox or the NFL Draft. If the network ignores the product, the viewers will too. The 3.0 is 12% lower than the 3.4 for the comparable game between the same teams last year, and is the lowest rated Sunday afternoon Game 1 since Mavericks/Kings drew the same rating in 2004.
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Red Sox. Prediction: 3.1. Final rating: 3.2. Yankees/Red Sox drew a better rating than both NBA Playoff games on ABC. FOX should send the crew at ESPN a thank you note, but the network was not the biggest beneficiary of ESPN’s hype last weekend; ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcast between the Yankees and Red Sox drew bigger numbers than FOX’s Saturday afternoon broadcast.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC, Flames/Red Wings. Prediction: 0.7. Final rating: 0.8. A blowout, combined with heavy competition on FOX and ABC, equals a terrible rating for hockey.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC, Devils/Lightning. Prediction: 1.1. Final rating: 0.7. Neither NHL game on NBC last weekend drew a rating of 0.9 or better. Two NHL games on network television combined for a rating of 1.5.
- NASCAR on FOX, Subway Fresh Fit 500. Prediction: 5.3. Final rating: 4.4. Down from the 4.8 for last year’s race, continuing the trend of falling NASCAR ratings. Still, NASCAR can crow that the race beat every NBA Playoff game and every Yankees/Red Sox game.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA Playoffs, Bulls at Heat Game 4, 1:00 PM Sunday — With the Bulls up 3-0 and ESPN’s focus completely on the NFL Draft, expect low ratings for this one. Prediction: 1.9.
- NBA Playoffs, Suns at Lakers, Game 4, 3:30 PM Sunday — The Lakers saved ABC from having two 3-0 series on Sunday, but that will not help the ratings. Last year, Suns/Lakers Game 4 drew a 4.3 final rating, thanks in large part to the heroics of Kobe Bryant, who hit two miraculous shots, including the game winner. Expect the numbers to be way down from last year. Prediction: 2.7.
- MLB on FOX, Red Sox at Yankees, 3:30 PM Saturday — As ESPN is not airing Yankees/Red Sox this weekend, expect promotion to be way down from last weekend. Combine that with the fact that the game is airing opposite the NFL Draft, and FOX might not have blockbuster numbers. Prediction: 2.8.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC, Sharks at Flames Game 2, 3:00 PM Saturday — Having San Jose is better than having Calgary, but not by much. Expect the NHL to continue on its record low pace. Prediction: 0.6.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC, Sabres at Rangers Game 3, 2:00 PM Sunday — Buffalo is a huge NHL market, and ratings for Sabres games are usually huge locally. The Rangers play in the largest media market in the U.S. Could the NHL actually get a decent rating for a game this week? Prediction: 1.6.
- NFL Draft on ESPN, 11:00 AM Saturday — Last year’s NFL Draft drew a 3.8 national rating and a 4.6 cable rating, comparable to NBA Conference Final and MLB Division Series games. With ESPN increasing promotion to ridiculous levels this year, expect bigger numbers. Prediction: 4.2.
