First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, Phoenix at San Antonio Game 3. Prediction: 2.8. Final rating: 3.4. Amazingly, the first NBA Playoff game on ABC to draw a higher year-to-date rating than the comparable game last year. The 3.4 was up 6% over the 3.2 for the Spurs/Mavs Game 3 last season. The game finished just short of five million viewers. Despite the higher rating, the game was the third highest rated sporting event of the weekend — despite having the highest overnight rating of the weekend.
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, Detroit at Chicago Game 4. Prediction: 2.6. Final rating: 2.8. Down 20% from the 3.5 for Heat/Nets Game 4 in the comparable timeslot last year, and the lowest rated playoff game ever in that timeslot.
- The Players Championship on NBC. Prediction: 5.5. Final rating: 3.6. Golf’s so-called fifth major did not draw marquee numbers, but a 3.6 is still very decent. The move from March to May was good for a 24% increase in ratings on Sunday, and the tiny .1 drop between the overnight and the final rating indicates golf’s stronghold in small-market America.
- MLB on FOX, Regional action. Prediction: 2.2. Final rating: 2.1. Baseball on FOX gets a higher final rating (2.1) than overnight rating (2.0).
- NBA on TNT, Utah at Houston Game 7 (May 5). Prediction: 2.1. Final rating: 2.0. Down 35% from the comparable Lakers/Suns Game 7 in 2006. The games between Utah and Houston drew ratings of 1.6, 1.7, 1.5, 1.6, 2.0 and 2.0 (excluding Game 3, which aired on NBA TV), by far the lowest rated of the four Western Conference first round series.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ESPN, Phoenix at San Antonio Game 6, 9:30 PM Friday — Considering that ratings have been much worse on broadcast than on cable, expect a good number for what will likely be the last game of this series. Last year, Spurs/Mavs Game 6 drew the highest rating for a non-Conference Final game ever on ESPN (3.9). The record might drop tonight. Prediction: 4.0.
- NBA on ABC, Utah at San Antonio Game 1*, 3:30 PM Sunday — If this series pans out, there is no question that it will finish as the lowest rated Western Conference Final of this decade. At least both Utah and San Antonio had teams with large followings as opponents in the second round (Golden State and Phoenix, respectively). Against each other, there is no incentive for the casual fans, or even most regular basketball fans to watch. Two anonymous, small market teams playing half-court basketball, with most of the country disliking one of those teams — but not enough to tune in just to root against them — is a decidedly unattractive brew for ABC. Prediction: 2.1.
- NBA on ABC, San Antonio at Phoenix Game 7*, 3:30 PM Sunday — In the highly unlikely event that Phoenix wins, expect ratings for Game 7 of this hard fought series to be the highest ABC has ever gotten for a Sunday afternoon game. Currently, that record belongs to Cavaliers/Pistons Game 7 last year, which drew a 6.1. Prediction: 6.8.
- NHL on NBC, Ottawa at Buffalo Game 5, 2:00 PM Saturday — Yet another NBC game that might be shifted to cable if it goes into overtime. With Ottawa up 3-1, expect the Buffalo market to draw a huge rating. Unfortunately for the NHL, what is huge in Buffalo is minuscule nationally. Prediction: 0.9.
- NHL on NBC, Anaheim at Detroit Game 5, 3:00 PM Sunday — A hard fought series that is tied 2-2 will still likely lay an egg for NBC on Sunday. Prediction: 1.0.
- MLB on FOX, NY Yankees at NY Mets, 3:30 PM Saturday — Expect another big rating for FOX; if the Jazz play the Spurs on Sunday, expect this one to easily best the rating for the Western Conference Finals on ABC. Prediction: 3.0.
- NASCAR on FX, Nextel All-Star Challenge, 7:00 PM Saturday — NASCAR should do fairly well; last year’s rain delayed event drew a 2.5 national rating (3.1 cable rating). Prediction: 2.8 national rating.
