First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, New Jersey at Cleveland Game 1. Prediction: 2.0. Final rating: 2.4. Down 20% from the 3.0 rating for last year’s comparable Mavericks/Spurs Game 1. ABC’s NBA ratings are plummeting from last year. The 2.4 is the lowest rating ever for a second round NBA Playoff game.
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, San Antonio at Phoenix Game 1. Prediction: 4.0. Final rating: 3.5. The trend continues; ABC sees yet another full ratings point drop from the overnight to the final rating. The 3.5 is down 5% from the 3.7 for Cleveland/Detroit last year (though the overnight for that Cavs/Pistons game was a 4.3, compared to the 4.5 overnight Spurs/Suns drew).
- NHL on NBC, San Jose at Detroit Game 5. Prediction: 0.9. Final rating: 1.1. The rating is up 38% from last year, according to the Sports Business Daily. The Red Wings’ success can only result in higher numbers for NBC.
- NHL on NBC, Buffalo at NY Rangers Game 6. Prediction: 1.2. Final rating: 0.9. The ratings for the Sabres/Rangers series on NBC should discount any notion that the Rangers are a huge ratings draw.
- Kentucky Derby on NBC. Prediction: 8.5. Final rating: 8.8. The Kentucky Derby finishes with a solid 8.8 rating during the race portion of the event, comparable to the Final Four, the NBA Finals and The Masters.
- NFL Draft on ESPN (April 28). Prediction: 4.2. Final rating: 3.5. The draft draws a huge 3.5 national rating, with a 4.2 cable rating — and that was actually down from last year.
NBA on TNT: Jazz/Rockets Game 7 ratings currently unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, Phoenix at San Antonio Game 3, 8:00 PM Saturday — Saturday night is the least watched night of the week, and ABC has to compete with a NASCAR race on FOX in the same timeslot. Last year, Spurs/Mavs drew a 3.2 in the same timeslot, and Heat/Wizards drew a 3.0 two years ago. With ratings down as much as they are on ABC, expect a disappointing result for a compelling match-up. Prediction: 2.8.
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, Detroit at Chicago Game 4, 3:30 PM Sunday — With competition from The Players Championship and the Pistons leading 3-0, expect a big drop from the 3.5 rating Heat/Nets Game 4 drew last year. Prediction: 2.6.
- The Players Championship on NBC, 2:00 PM Sunday — Golf’s ‘fifth major’ gets a better spot on the sports calendar this year. Last year’s Final Round aired during March Madness and drew a 2.9/7; expect a much higher number for the marquee event this year. Prediction: 5.5.
- MLB on FOX, Regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — Last week, baseball on FOX drew a 2.1 rating. Expect more of the same, without the Yankees or Red Sox to boost ratings. Prediction: 2.2.
