First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NHL on NBC, Red Wings/Penguins. Prediction: 2.2. Final rating: 2.3. Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals saw the least impressive increase of the series, with the 2.3 rating marking only a 21% jump from last year.
- Elite XC Extreme Combat on CBS. Prediction: 2.9. Final rating: 3.0. The debut of MMA on CBS beat the Stanley Cup Finals handily head to head, and finished as the seventh most watched sports program of last week on broadcast or cable, behind only the NBA Playoffs and NASCAR.
- French Open on NBC, early rounds. Prediction: 0.7 and 0.8. Final ratings: 0.9 and 0.8. French Open ratings dropped 27% on Sunday, from a 1.1 to a 0.8. The 0.9 rating for coverage on Saturday was even with last year.
- NASCAR on FOX, Best Buy 400. Prediction: 5.1. Final rating: 4.5. NASCAR on FOX ended a fairly successful run with a fairly mediocre rating on Sunday. Of all the sports, NASCAR has the most bizarre ratings situation. During the winter, ratings are usually in the mid-to-high 5.0 range, with some races even drawing a 7.0 rating. Once summer starts, the ratings plummet, and by the end of the season, races are lucky to draw a 4.0 on broadcast.
- IRL on ABC, ABCSupply Co./A.J. Foyt 225. Prediction: 1.2. Final rating: 0.8. After lower than anticipated ratings for the Indy 500, the IRL on ABC saw a 20% drop in ratings for last Sunday’s race.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Lakers/Celtics, 9 PM Sunday — Game 1 of the NBA Finals did not live up to expectations for ABC, but the network can live with the 8.7 rating as long as the ratings rise from game to game. Two out of the past three years, ratings dropped from Game 1 of the Finals to Game 2. Barring a blowout, do not expect the same this year. Prediction: 9.2.
- The Belmont Stakes on ABC, 5 PM Saturday — Big Brown is no Smarty Jones, but look for The Belmont to finish with the highest rating of the weekend, ahead of both NBA Finals games on ABC. When Smarty Jones went for the Triple Crown four years ago, the Belmont drew a rating of 13.1. Prediction: 11.9.
- French Open on NBC, Federer/Nadal, 9 AM Sunday — For the third straight year, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal meet in the French Open final. In their two previous meetings, NBC averaged a 1.8 rating. With Federer losing some of his invincibility, do not be surprised to see ratings drop slightly. Prediction: 1.7.
- NASCAR on TNT, Pocono 500, 2 PM Sunday — NASCAR returns to TNT after a season of increased ratings on FOX. Expect ratings for the Pocono 500 to improve from last year’s 3.0. Prediction: 3.3.
