First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- Wimbledon on NBC, Venus Williams v. Serena Williams. Prediction: 3.2. Final rating: 2.5. The good news: the 2.5 rating for Venus Williams‘ fifth Wimbledon victory was up 14% from her win last year, and marked the highest rating for the women’s final since 2005, when she defeated Lindsay Davenport. The bad news: the rating is the second-lowest of the seven all-Williams Grand Slam finals.
- Wimbledon on NBC, Roger Federer v. Rafael Nadal. Prediction: 2.8. Final rating: 3.5. The Federer/Nadal rivalry is turning into must see television. The 3.5 rating for last Sunday’s classic, five-set Wimbledon final was up 30% from the same match-up a year ago. More promising is the fact that each of the three times Federer and Nadal have played in the Wimbledon final, ratings have increased — by 19% in ’06, 8% in ’07 and 30% this year. Overall, ratings for the men’s final at Wimbledon have jumped 67% since ’05, the last time the rivals did not play each other for the title.
- MLB on FOX, Red Sox/Yankees or Cubs/Cardinals. Prediction: 2.9. Final rating: 3.0. The 3.0 for the latest chapter in the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry was up 20% from a 2.5 for the comparable telecast last year, and marked the best MLB rating of the season. Through 14 weeks, MLB on FOX is averaging a 2.1 rating, down 16% from last year.
- NASCAR on TNT, Coke Zero 400, 8 PM Saturday. Prediction: 3.7. Final rating: 3.8. Ratings for the Coke Zero 400 were flat from last year, when the race was the Pepsi 400. Through five races, TNT is averaging a 3.6 rating for NASCAR telecasts, up 6% from ’07.
- PGA on CBS, AT&T National, Final Round. Prediction: 1.6. Final rating: 1.5. Predictably, ratings for the AT&T National plummeted without the biggest draw in golf. The 1.5 rating for final round coverage on Sunday was off 42% from a 2.6 last year. Coverage on Saturday fell 45%, from a 2.0 to a 1.1. Overall, CBS averaged a 1.3 rating for the event, down 43% from last year.
This week’s predictions.
- NASCAR on TNT, LifeLock 400, 8 PM Saturday — Expect lower ratings for the final NASCAR race of the season on TNT. Last year, the race on the comparable weekend drew a 3.9 on a Sunday. A shift to Saturday night should result in lower numbers. Prediction: 3.7.
- AVP Crocs Tour on NBC, Chicago Open, Women’s Championship, 1:30 PM Sunday — Thanks to a Nadal/Federer lead-in, coverage of the women’s final at the Boulder Open drew a 1.6/4 last Sunday, the best rating for an AVP Tour event since the men’s final at the Manhattan Beach Open drew a 1.9 in ’06. Without a big time sporting event to precede it, look for the AVP to fall back to earth this week. Prediction: 0.8.
- WNBA on ABC, Sun/Mystics, 3:30 PM Sunday — WNBA ratings started strong on ABC, thanks in part to Candace Parker, but have slumped back to poor levels. Last weekend, a Silver Stars/Mystics matin?e drew a mere 0.5. Despite a later timeslot, expect more of the same this week. Prediction: 0.5.
- MLB on ESPN, Home Run Derby, 8 PM Monday — The Home Run Derby is consistently one of the highest rated non-NFL sporting events on cable each year. Last year, the Derby drew a 4.3 national rating with 6.8 million viewers, on par with with what TBS drew for some of the highest rated Division Series games in October. Look for a bump in numbers for this year’s event. Prediction: 4.5.
- MLB on FOX, All Star Game, 8 PM Tuesday — This year’s MLB All Star Game has more hype than any in recent memory. Not only is the game set in America’s largest television market, but it will be held at Yankee Stadium in its final year. The All Star Game has not drawn a double-digit rating since 2001, bottoming out at an 8.1 in ’05 and drawing an 8.4 last year. While it may be too much to ask for the game to finish as the highest rated sporting event of the summer (Game 6 of the NBA Finals drew a 10.7), a double-digit rating does not seem out of the question. Prediction: 10.3.
