First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- Summer Olympics on NBC (Saturday). Prediction: 15.0. Final rating: 17.8. The 17.8 rating for coverage of the Olympics last Saturday marked a 31% increase from a 13.6 for the comparable night of the 2004 Athens Olympics, and was the best rating for a Saturday night Olympics telecast since the ninth night of the 1996 Atlanta Games.
- Summer Olympics on NBC (Sunday). Prediction: 18.4. Final rating: 16.0. For the first time since Seoul in 1988, ratings for the second Sunday of the Olympics dropped from the first Sunday. The 16.0 rating was up slightly from a 15.8 for the comparable night of the 2004 Athens Olympics, and was even with Sydney in 2000.
- NASCAR on ESPN, 3M Performance 400. Prediction: 3.1. Final rating: 3.3. NASCAR has been holding up far better opposite the Olympics than the other sports. Two races have averaged a 3.2 national rating opposite the Olympics, down 14% from a 3.7 for the first eight races of the season on cable. By contrast, FOX has averaged a 1.6 for two MLB telecasts opposite the Olympics, down 27% from a 2.2 for the previous eighteen broadcasts. Meanwhile, the ratings for the PGA’s PGA Championship and Wyndham Championship were down 55% and 25%, respectively, from a year ago.
- MLB on FOX, regional. Prediction: 1.6. Final rating: 1.1. The 1.1 rating for FOX Saturday Baseball marks a 63% plummet from last year, and is likely the lowest rating ever for Major League Baseball on broadcast television.
This week’s predictions:
- Summer Olympics on NBC, USA/Spain, 2:30 AM Sunday — The last marquee event of the 2008 Beijing Olympics will be the USA/Spain gold medal basketball game, which will not tip off until 2:30 Sunday morning on the East Coast. Unlike previous NBC telecasts, the gold medal game will be live in all time zones. Last weekend, two Olympics late night broadcasts on NBC averaged ratings of 5.0/17 (Aug. 16) and 4.7/16 (Aug. 17). It should be pointed out that NBC’s late night broadcasts typically end before 2:00 AM. Look for similar ratings for the gold medal game. Prediction: 4.1.
- Summer Olympics on NBC, Closing Ceremonies, 7:00 PM Sunday — The Closing Ceremony is typically one of the lowest rated prime time Olympics telecasts. In 2004, 2000 and 1992, the Closing Ceremony finished as the third-lowest rated prime time telecast of the Olympics, and in 1988, it was the lowest rated prime time telecast by far. This time around, expect a slightly better result, mostly due to high expectations set by the Opening Ceremonies. Prediction: 14.0.
- MLB on FOX, regional, 3:30 PM Saturday — With a solid match-up between two division leaders in White Sox/Rays, look for FOX to draw far better numbers than last week. Still, expect the ratings to be well below average. Prediction: 1.7.
- NASCAR on ESPN, Sharpie 500, 8 PM Saturday — Last year’s Sharpie 500 finished with a solid 3.5 rating on a Saturday night. Opposite a prime time Olympics telecast, look for those numbers to fall somewhat. Prediction: 3.2.
- LLWS on ABC, Championship Game, 3:30 PM Sunday — The Little League World Series Championship Game drew a solid 3.3/8 final rating on ABC last year. Expect slightly lower numbers thanks to the Olympics, though the drop in ratings should not be as pronounced as it was last week. Prediction: 2.7.
