The 2008 Major League Baseball postseason begins tomorrow without arguably the biggest draw in team sports, the New York Yankees.
Not only are the Yankees sitting on the sidelines this postseason, but the Mets are as well — leaving the nation’s top television market without a rooting interest in October baseball for the first time in 15 years. Meanwhile, some of the shine has come off of the Boston Red Sox, who captivated the nation four years ago, but were involved in the second-lowest rated World Series last year.
So who can be counted on for big ratings this year? Certainly not the small market Rays, Brewers or Twins. The second, third and fourth-lowest rated World Series involved the Red Sox (2007, 10.6/18), White Sox (2005, 11.1/19) and Angels (2002, 11.9/20). The Phillies and Dodgers are both big market teams, though not ones that have moved the needle much in recent years. That leaves the team with the best record in the National League, and a made-for-TV 100 year drought since winning its last World Series.
The Chicago Cubs, residents of the nation’s #3 market, are baseball’s best bet to make up for lost viewership due to the Yankees’ absence. In 2003, games 6 and 7 of the Cubs’ NLCS defeat against the Marlins drew better ratings than all but one game from the Yankees/Red Sox ALCS*. Game 7 drew a 16.9 rating, the third best for any baseball game in the past six years, behind only two Yankees/Red Sox game sevens and the Red Sox’ clinching victory over the Cardinals in the ’04 World Series. The Cubs’ Game 5 win over the Atlanta Braves in the ’03 NLDS remains the highest rated, most viewed Division Series game ever, with 15.4 million viewers.
Of course, the Cubs’ ratings success in ’03 can be attributed to how close they were to their first appearance in the World Series since 1945. Last year, when the Cubs were swept in the Division Series, the ratings were good, but far from spectacular. If the Cubs are to come even close to matching the Yankees in box office appeal — last year, the Yankees’ four games against the Indians were far and away the most watched playoff games on TBS — they will have to make their playoff run as dramatic as possible, or at the very least have a good possibility of winning.
With the Cubs the favorites to win the World Series, at least one of those requirements figures to be met. And with Chicago facing off against #2 market Los Angeles in the Division Series, it should not take much to deliver strong ratings. Should the Cubs get past the Dodgers, their next series would be televised on broadcast, as FOX has the rights to the NLCS this year. That alone should make their match-up against either Milwaukee or #4 market Philadelphia easily draw higher ratings than the corresponding ALCS on TBS.
And if the Cubs somehow make it into the World Series for the first time since 1945, it would not be out of the question for that series to be the highest rated of the decade. In 2004, when the Red Sox won their first World Series in 86 years, the series ended in a sweep. A six or seven game series involving the Cubs could top the 15.8 average from 2004. If the Cubs were to play the defending champion Red Sox, or even the Los Angeles Angels, baseball could be blessed with NFL-type numbers.
But perhaps that’s looking too far ahead. After all, the Cubs and Red Sox were in last year’s playoffs as well, and baseball nearly ended up with Indians/Rockies — a series that would have assuredly drawn less than a 10.0 average. While the Cubs could lead baseball to ratings heights not seen in over a decade, the 2008 World Series could end up being a battle between Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. If that were the case, the Cubs would not be the only ones cursed.
* That is partly due to the ’03 Yankees/Red Sox series having three afternoon games, including two on weekdays.
