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Home › Features › Ratings predictions › Weekend ratings predictions.

Weekend ratings predictions.

by Jon Lewis
17 years ago
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First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily

Sport Game/Event Net Prediction Final rating
College basketball Syracuse/Louisville ESPN 1.9 2.4
The 2.4 final rating for the Big East Championship last Saturday was up 41% from a 1.7 for last year’s Pittsburgh/Georgetown final.
College basketball Florida St./Duke ESPN 1.7 1.2
ESPN saw a big drop for the ACC Championship Game last Sunday. The 1.2 for Duke’s win over Florida State was off 25% from a 1.6 for last year’s North Carolina/Clemson tilt.
College basketball NCAA Tournament Selection Show CBS 4.1 N/A
Final national ratings for NCAA Tournament Selection Show on CBS currently unavailable.
NBA Mavericks/Lakers ABC 2.6 2.0
The 2.0 final rating for the Lakers’ win over the Mavericks on Sunday was off 20% from a 2.5 for last year’s comparable Lakers/Rockets game, which featured Houston winning its 22nd straight game.
PGA Tour WGC-CA Championship, Final Round NBC 3.6 3.4
With the two biggest stars in golf playing, ratings for final round coverage of the WGC-CA Championship rose to a 3.4 last Sunday, up 13% from last year, and the highest rated PGA Tour telecast since last year’s U.S. Open.
NHL Flyers/Rangers NBC 0.8 0.8
Yet another sub-1.0 final rating for the NHL on NBC. Excluding the Winter Classic, only one NHL regular season telecast in the past two years has drawn a rating of 1.0 or higher.

This week’s predictions:

Sport Game/Event Date/Time Net Prediction
College basketball Arizona St./Syracuse 12 PM Sunday CBS 4.4
The NCAA Tournament continues on CBS Sunday, with Arizona State/Syracuse leading off a Sunday tripleheader. After drawing big audiences during the Big East tournament, can Syracuse continue attracting national attention?
College basketball Regional coverage 2:30 PM Sunday CBS 5.9
Regional action in the second NCAA Tournament window of the day features, among other games, an unlikely Cleveland State/Arizona tilt. While underdogs make news, they are not particularly good for ratings. Even so, look for CBS to draw solid numbers.
College basketball Regional coverage 5 PM Sunday CBS 6.3
Late window coverage on Sunday features #1 overall seed Louisville taking on Siena, and fellow #1 seed Pittsburgh going up against Oklahoma State. Neither top seed may be able to match the drawing power of North Carolina, whose game against Arkansas in the comparable window last year drew a 6.5 rating.
NBA Heat/Pistons 1 PM Sunday ABC 1.2
Despite the presence of MVP candidate Dwyane Wade, only true NBA diehards may end up watching this battle of middle-of-the-road Eastern Conference playoff teams, both of whom have gone a mediocre 5-5 in their last ten games. Last year’s comparable Spurs/Mavericks game drew a relatively impressive 1.5 opposite the NCAA Tournament.
NASCAR Food City 500 1:30 PM Sunday FOX 5.1
NASCAR returns to the airwaves just in time to go head-to-head with the NCAA Tournament. Last year’s Food City 500 did not air opposite the NCAA Tournament, and drew a 5.5 rating.
NHL Flyers/Penguins 12:30 PM Sunday NBC 0.8
NBC gets its last taste of Sidney Crosby before the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Look for this week’s rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals to draw a typical NHL rating.
WBC United States/Japan 8 PM Sunday ESPN 2.1
Ratings for the World Baseball Classic have increased significantly from ’06. With the U.S. in the Semifinals for the first time, and with no competition from the NCAA Tournament, look for ESPN to draw strong ratings on Sunday night.
Previous Post

NCAA Tourney helps CBS win Friday night.

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CBS wins Saturday night with NCAA.

Jon Lewis

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.

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Sports Ratings Tracker
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San Antonio led all markets for the NBA Finals, averaging a 25.9 rating for the Spurs’ five-game defeat at the hands of the Knicks. That figure almost certainly trails each of the Spurs’ previous NBA Finals — the market routinely delivered local ratings in the 30s and 40s during those years — albeit in a different era of television (and Nielsen methodology). Read more
logoMCWS
Airing in the window that used to belong to “Sunday Night Baseball,” last weekend’s West Virginia-North Carolina Men’s College World Series game averaged 2.0 million viewers on ESPN — the third-largest audience on record for a non-final Men’s College World Series game. Read more
logoWNBA
Wednesday’s Tempo-Fever WNBA regular season game averaged 1.00 million viewers on USA Network, marking the largest audience for a WNBA game on cable or streaming this season.
logoSunday Night Baseball
The latest edition of NBC’s “Sunday Night Baseball” (Rangers-Red Sox) averaged 1.7 million viewers on NBC, per a Nielsen-measured linear audience and streaming viewership tracked by Adobe Analytics — the least-watched of the five Nielsen-rated “Sunday Night Baseball” games this season. The previous low was 2.0 million for Padres-Mariners in May. Read more
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Last weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race from Pocono (Pa.) averaged a 1.66 million viewers on Prime Video, per the Nielsen “Big Data + Panel” methodology that is now the official currency, and 1.63 million on using the previous ‘panel only’ methodology now being publicized by NASCAR. The 2% difference is by far the smallest for a race on Prime Video this season, after the first three races saw a “Big Data” lift of 15-21 percent. Read more
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logoSuper Regionals
The NCAA college baseball super regionals averaged 608,000 viewers on the ESPN networks, up 31% from last year, and the highest average for the round since 2009. (Note that changes in Nielsen methodology skew comparisons to past years.) Read more
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