Have the Orlando Magic made the NBA’s ratings mojo disappear?
The NBA Conference Finals may feature the Lakers, LeBron and Superman, but it could be a long couple of weeks for the league’s television partners — particularly TNT. The Conference Finals feature teams from the #17 (Cleveland), #18 (Denver) and #19 (Orlando) markets, with only one team in the top ten (#2 — Los Angeles).
While the Lakers/Nuggets Western Conference Finals should finish as ESPN’s highest rated Conference Final ever, mostly because this is the first time ESPN/ABC has had the rights to a Conference Final involving the Lakers, TNT should brace itself for a sizable decrease for its coverage of the Cavaliers/Magic Eastern Conference Finals.
The battle of mid-sized markets may feature LeBron James, but there’s a little known secret in the NBA — LeBron does not move the needle nationally. Despite his talent and all the hype, James has always needed a high-profile, big-market opponent to draw viewers. This series marks the first time since the infamous 2007 Cavaliers/Spurs NBA Finals that the Cavaliers have played a playoff series against a team in a smaller market than their own.
And speaking of that smaller market, the Magic have not been a particularly big draw in Orlando. The first six games of Celtics/Magic averaged an unspectacular 8.8 rating locally, equalling approximately 129,000 households. The Magic have been relatively low on the totem pole locally; Thursday night’s Celtics/Magic Game 6 drew a 9.3 in the Orlando market, while The Preakness Stakes on Saturday drew an 11.2. Worse yet, the final round of The Players’ Championship outrated Games 2 and 3 of Celtics/Magic in Orlando.
All of which points to a rough time in the ratings for TNT. Last year, the net averaged 6.3 million viewers for Lakers/Spurs; the year before, it averaged 5.0 million for Cavaliers/Pistons. Look for Cavaliers/Magic to fall somewhere in between, but closer to the latter. Certainly, quality of play can overcome market size. But barring a long, competitive series, the East Finals could mark a rather abrupt stop to the ratings gravy train for TNT.
