Weekend ratings predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Final rating
College football	Alabama/Virginia Tech	ABC	3.8	4.2
The 4.2 for Alabama/Virginia Tech was up 17% from last year, up 27% from ’07, and the highest rating for the season debut of Saturday Night Football since ’06.
College football	BYU/Oklahoma	ESPN	2.5	2.8
BYU’s upset win over Oklahoma drew a 2.8 U.S. rating on ESPN last Saturday, up 75% from a 1.6 for Illinois/Missouri on the comparable night last year.
College football	Georgia/Ok. St. or other regional action	ABC	3.0	3.5
Regional college football action drew a 3.5 rating on ABC last Saturday afternoon, up 25% from last year’s comparable coverage, and up 46% from ’07.
College football	Nevada/Notre Dame	NBC	2.6	1.3
NBC’s Notre Dame coverage began with a thud last week. The 1.3 for Nevada/Notre Dame was off 44% from a 2.3 for San Diego St./Notre Dame last year, and marks the lowest rating for Notre Dame on NBC since ’07.
College football	Miami/Florida St.	ESPN	3.9	5.1
The Miami/Florida State rivalry continues to attract eyeballs. The 5.1 for Miami’s win last Monday was up 25% from Tennessee/UCLA last year, and marks the highest rated college football game on cable since Miami/Florida State in ’06.
Golf	Deutsche Bank Championship, Final Rd.	NBC	3.3	2.2
The 2.2 for the final round of the Deutsche Bank Championship marks a 47% rise from last year’s 1.5, but is still of 35% from a 3.4 in ’07.
Tennis	U.S. Open	CBS	1.3 (Sat)	1.4 (Sat)
Tennis	U.S. Open	CBS	1.5 (Sun)	1.7 (Sun)
CBS’ coverage of the U.S. Open was up 17% on Saturday and 31% on Sunday.
NASCAR	Pep Boys Auto 500	ESPN	3.3	3.5
The 3.5 U.S. rating for last Sunday’s Pep Boys Auto 500 was up 6% from last year’s comparable Pepsi 500.
MLB	Red Sox/White Sox or other regional action	FOX	1.4	1.3
FOX drew a 1.3 rating for regional MLB coverage last Saturday, up 8% from comparable coverage last year, but the lowest rating of the season for an MLB telecast on the net. FOX is averaging a 1.9 rating for MLB coverage, down 5% from last year.

Ratings unavailable for U.S. Open on CBS Labor Day.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Washington/Giants or other regional action	4:15 PM Sunday	FOX	13.2
The highly rated 4:15 PM NFL window features a big market NFC East battle between Washington and the New York Giants. Last year’s comparable Cowboys/Browns tilt drew a 13.0.
NFL	Bears/Packers	8 PM Sunday	NBC	11.0
Sunday Night Football kicks off with the Bears/Packers rivalry. Look for ratings to hold up well compared to last year’s Bears/Colts tilt (11.2).
NFL	Cowboys/Buccaneers or other regional action	1 PM Sunday	FOX	9.2
With the Cowboys and Brett Favre both in action, look for the first half of Sunday’s FOX NFL doubleheader to see a huge increase in ratings over last year’s relatively poor 5.1.
NFL	Jets/Texans or other regional action	1 PM Sunday	CBS	9.0
CBS opens its NFL season with a slate of regional matchups on Sunday. Opposite some marquee attractions on FOX, look for ratings to slip somewhat from the 9.4/21 for comparable regional action in ’08.
College football	USC/Ohio State	8 PM Saturday	ESPN	6.4
This marquee college football battle should end up as ESPN’s highest rated college football telecast ever, a record currently held by Miami/Florida State in ’06 (5.7). Last year, a blowout between Ohio State and USC drew a 7.0 on broadcast network ABC. Expect slightly lower numbers on cable.
College football	Notre Dame/Michigan	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	3.8
Last week, Notre Dame was not much of a draw against Nevada, drawing a mere 1.3 rating. Against rival Michigan, the numbers should climb much higher. Last year’s game between the rivals drew a 3.5 (NBC); the last time they played on ABC, the game drew a 2.5.
Tennis	Semifinals, S. Williams/Clijsters	9 PM Saturday	CBS	2.3
The S. Williams/Clijsters women’s semifinal of the U.S. Open finally got underway after 9 PM on Saturday. With rain dousing the U.S. Open in the past three days, the tournament has likely lost much of its ratings momentum. Due to rain, there was no telecast in the comparable window last year.
Tennis	Semifinals, Federer/Djokovic	4 PM Sunday	CBS	3.0
CBS will air the Federer/Djokovic men’s semifinal after NFL coverage on Sunday. Last year, comparable coverage of the Murray/Nadal semifinal drew a 3.0.
Tennis	Women’s Final	9 PM Sunday	ESPN2	1.7
Thanks to rain, the women’s final of the U.S. Open will be relegated to cable network ESPN2 on Sunday night. Last year’s S. Williams/Jankovic women’s final drew a 3.3 on CBS in the same timeslot; expect smaller numbers on cable.
Golf	BMW Championship, Final Round	2 PM Sunday	NBC	3.1
Tiger Woods is atop the leaderboard entering Sunday’s final round of the BMW Championship, which should equal a massive increase in ratings. Four of Woods five victories this season have had at least a 100% increase in ratings for final round coverage. Last year, the final round of the BMW Championship drew a 1.2 rating.
NASCAR	Chevy Rock & Roll 400	7:30 PM Sunday	ABC	4.0
Saturday’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400 marks NASCAR’s return to broadcast for the first time since May. Last year’s race was postponed to Sunday due to rain and aired on ESPN (2.5 U.S. rating). In ’07, the race drew a 4.2 rating on ABC.
MLB	Mets/Phillies or other regional action	4 PM Saturday	FOX	1.3
Opposite college football, expect another small rating for MLB coverage on FOX. On the comparable date last year, MLB on FOX drew a 1.3 rating.

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.