Weekend ratings predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Final rating
MLB	Angels/Yankees Game 2	FOX	6.2	5.8
The 5.8 rating for the Yankees’ Game 2 win over the Angels last Saturday was up 53% from a 3.8 for last year’s comparable Red Sox/Rays Game 2.
MLB	Dodgers/Phillies Game 3	TBS	4.3	3.0
The Phillies’ 11-0 blowout win over the Dodgers last Sunday drew a 3.0 U.S. rating, down 46% from a 5.6 for Game 3 between the same teams on FOX last year.
NFL	Bears/Falcons	NBC	10.0	10.9
Last Sunday’s Bears/Falcons game drew a 10.9 rating, up 33% from last year’s Patriots/Chargers game (8.2), and the highest rated Sunday Night Football telecast opposite the MLB League Championship Series since NBC began airing Sunday night games in ’06.
NFL	Titans/Patriots or Bills/Jets	CBS	11.3	14.6
Despite featuring the Patriots’ 59-0 blowout of the Titans, last Sunday’s late national window on CBS drew a 14.6 rating, down just 1% from last year, and the third-highest rating of the season for an NFL telecast.
NFL	Ravens/Vikings or other regional action	CBS	8.2	9.3
The first game of CBS’ Week 6 NFL doubleheader drew a 9.3 rating, up 21% from a 7.7 for comparable coverage on FOX last year.
NFL	Giants/Saints or other regional action	FOX	11.0	11.0
Regional NFL coverage (featuring Giants/Saints) drew an 11.0 rating on FOX last week, the second-highest rating of the season for the NFL singleheader.
College football	Oklahoma/Texas	ABC	5.1	5.7
Last Saturday’s Oklahoma/Texas battle drew a 5.7 rating on ABC, up 10% from a 5.1 for the same matchup the same timeslot last year. The 5.7 is the third-highest of the season for a college football game.
College football	Minnesota/Penn St. or other regional action	ABC	4.5	3.2
Despite a strong lead-in from Oklahoma/Texas, regional college football action on ABC last Saturday drew a 3.2 rating, down 30% from a 4.6 last year.
College football	USC/Notre Dame	NBC	3.6	4.1
The USC/Notre Dame rivalry propelled NBC to its highest Notre Dame rating since ’06. The 4.1 for USC’s win was up 128% from last year’s comparable game, and marks the only time in the past three years that a Notre Dame game on NBC has drawn at least a 4.0 rating.
College football	Arkansas/Florida	CBS	3.0	4.3
Last Saturday’s Arkansas/Florida game drew a 4.3 rating on CBS, the second-highest rating of the weekend for a college football game — behind only Oklahoma/Texas.
College football	South Carolina/Alabama	ESPN	3.0	2.8
ESPN drew a 2.8 U.S. rating for last Saturday’s South Carolina/Alabama tilt, up 87% from a 1.5 for last year’s comparable Penn State/Wisconsin game.
NASCAR	Banking 500	ABC	3.6	3.5
NASCAR’s Banking 500 drew a 3.5 rating on ABC last Saturday night, down 8% from a 3.8 last year, and the lowest rating for the race since 2001.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
MLB	Angels/Yankees Game 6	8 PM Sunday	FOX	8.3
Postponed from Saturday, the lowest rated night of the week, expect Sunday’s Game 6 of the Angels/Yankees ALCS to put up strong numbers on FOX. Last year, Red Sox/Rays Game 6 drew a 5.4 on TBS; in ’07, Indians/Red Sox Game 6 drew a 6.6. Both of those games aired on Saturday night.
NFL	Falcons/Cowboys (or other regional action)	4:15 PM Sunday	FOX	14.0
With the Falcons at 4-1 and the Cowboys always a big draw, this battle of Top 10 markets should put up strong numbers on FOX Sunday. Last year, Colts/Packers drew a 14.2 on CBS.
NFL	Vikings/Steelers (or other regional action)	1 PM Sunday	FOX	9.6
With Brett Favre and the undefeated Vikings taking on the defending champion Steelers, look for FOX to attract a big audience for the first game of its NFL doubleheader. Last year, comparable coverage on CBS drew a 6.4.
NFL	Patriots/Buccaneers (or other regional action)	1 PM Sunday	CBS	8.9
The Patriots are always a big attraction, but their drawing power may be limited against the 0-6 Buccaneers. Last year, FOX drew a 10.1 for its Week 7 singleheader.
NFL	Cardinals/Giants	8:15 PM Sunday	NBC	9.9
Opposite Game 6 of the ALCS on FOX, look for Sunday Night Football to draw near season-low numbers on NBC. Still, Cardinals/Giants should attract a much larger audience than last year’s comparable Seahawks/Buccaneers tilt (6.3).
College football	Texas/Missouri or Oregon St./USC	8 PM Saturday	ABC	3.8
Saturday Night Football returns after a weeklong hiatus. Without competition from the baseball playoffs, look for Saturday’s regional action to improve over last year’s comparable Missouri/Texas game (3.1).
College football	Penn St./Michigan (or other regional action)	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	3.6
Regional college football action featuring #10 Miami, #11 Oregon and #13 Penn State should draw decent numbers on ABC Saturday afternoon. Last year’s comparable regional action drew a 3.8.
College football	Boston College/Notre Dame	3:30 PM Saturday	NBC	2.8
After a rough start, Notre Dame football has been attracting solid numbers on NBC. The past three Notre Dame telecasts have been three of the four highest rated on NBC since ’06. Look for the relatively good numbers to continue on Saturday; last year’s comparable Pittsburgh/Notre Dame game drew a 2.4.
College football	Tennessee/Alabama	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	3.0
The SEC on CBS is averaging a 3.9 rating through last week’s games, up 44% from last year, and the highest average at this point in the season since ’96. Look for the good times to continue with Saturday’s Tennessee/Alabama game. Last year’s comparable Mississippi/Alabama game drew a 2.0.
College football	Florida/Mississippi St.	7:30 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.9
Despite dropping to #2 in the AP, do not expect Florida to lose any of its drawing power. Look for the Gators’ tilt against Mississippi state to see a solid increase in ratings over a 2.2 for last year’s LSU/South Carolina tilt.
NASCAR	Tums Fast Relief 500	1:30 PM Sunday	ABC	3.4
After a long run of lower ratings, is this the week when NASCAR finally turns it around?. Last year’s race drew a 3.3.