First, the results of last week’s predictions.
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Final rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Cowboys/Saints (Dec. 19) | NFLN |
4.4
|
5.7
|
| The Cowboys’ Week 15 win over the Saints drew a 5.7 U.S. rating on NFL Network, up 68% from a 3.4 for Ravens/Cowboys in Week 16 last year, and the highest rating ever for an NFL telecast on NFL Network. | ||||
| NFL | Vikings/Panthers (Dec. 20) | NBC |
10.8
|
11.0
|
| The December 20 Vikings/Panthers game drew an 11.0 final rating on NBC, off 20% from Giants/Cowboys in Week 15 last year. | ||||
| NFL | National window (mostly Packers/Steelers or 49ers/Eagles) (Dec. 20) | FOX |
15.5
|
15.1
|
| The Week 15 NFL national window (mostly Packers/Steelers or 49ers Eagles) drew a 15.1 final rating on FOX, up 3% from a 14.7 for last year’s comparable window on CBS (mostly Steelers/Ravens). | ||||
| NFL | Regional window (mostly Falcons Jets) (Dec. 20) | FOX |
8.6
|
6.7
|
| Regional NFL action featuring Falcons/Jets drew a 6.7 final rating on FOX December 20, down 15% from a 7.9 for last year’s comparable window on CBS (mostly Bills/Jets), and the lowest rating of the season for an NFL telecast on FOX. | ||||
| NFL | Singleheader (mostly Bengals/Chargers) (Dec. 20) | CBS |
10.3
|
11.0
|
| The Week 15 singleheader window (mostly Bengals/Chargers) drew an 11.0 final rating on CBS — the highest rating of the season for the singleheader on CBS. | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Magic (Dec. 25) | ABC |
3.4
|
3.3
|
| ABC drew a 3.3 final rating for Celtics/Magic on Christmas Day, up 3% from a 3.2 for Spurs/Suns the previous year, and up 7% from a 3.1 for Heat/Cavaliers in ’07. | ||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Lakers (Dec. 25) | ABC |
5.6
|
4.4
|
| The Cavaliers’ win over the Lakers on Christmas Day drew a 4.4 final rating on ABC — down 17% from a 5.3 for Celtics/Lakers last year, but up 26% from a 3.5 for Suns/Lakers in ’07. | ||||
| NFL | Chargers/Titans (Dec. 25) | NFLN |
2.6
|
3.3
|
| NFL Network drew a 3.3 U.S. rating for Chargers/Titans on Christmas night. There was no comparable Christmas game last year. | ||||
| College football | Emerald Bowl (Boston College/USC) (Dec. 26) | ESPN |
4.3
|
4.6
|
| The Boston College/USC Emerald Bowl drew a 4.6 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 15% from a 4.0 for Miami/Cal last year. | ||||
| NFL | Cowboys/Washington (Dec. 27) | NBC |
12.1
|
10.9
|
| The Cowboys’ win over Washington drew a 10.9 final rating on NBC December 27, off 5% from Panthers/Giants last year (11.5), and the lowest rating for a Cowboys game on the network since 2007. | ||||
| NFL | National window (mostly Broncos/Eagles) | CBS |
14.6
|
16.3
|
| The Week 16 NFL national window (mostly Broncos/Eagles) drew a 16.3 final rating on CBS December 27, up 38% from an 11.8 for last year’s comparable window on FOX (mostly Falcons/Vikings), and the highest rating of the season for any NFL telecast on CBS. | ||||
| NFL | Vikings/Bears (Dec. 28) | ESPN |
8.8
|
10.4
|
| The 10.4 U.S. rating for the Bears’ overtime win over the Vikings on December 28 marks a 24% jump over last year’s comparable Packers/Bears game (8.4). | ||||
| College football | Capital One Bowl (Penn St./LSU) (Jan. 1) | ABC |
7.1
|
6.8
|
| The Penn St./LSU Capital One Bowl drew a 6.8 final rating on ABC January 1, up 6% from a 6.4 for last year’s game, and the second-highest rating for the Capital One Bowl since ’04. | ||||
| College football | Gator Bowl (West Virginia/Florida St.) (Jan. 1) | CBS |
4.3
|
3.9
|
| The Gator Bowl, featuring Bobby Bowden‘s last game as Florida St. head coach, drew a 3.9 final rating on CBS, off 5% from a 4.1 for Nebraska/Clemson last year. | ||||
| College football | Rose Bowl (Oregon/Ohio St.) (Jan. 1) | ABC |
11.0
|
13.2
|
| Ohio St.’s win over Oregon in the Rose Bowl drew a 13.2 final rating on ABC, up 13% from an 11.7 for last year’s game, and the highest rated Rose Bowl since 2007. | ||||
| College football | Sugar Bowl (Florida/Cincinnati) (Jan. 1) | FOX |
10.3
|
8.5
|
| The Sugar Bowl, the last game of Tim Tebow‘s college career, drew an 8.5 final rating on FOX, up 9% from a 7.8 for last year’s Utah/Alabama game, but the third-lowest rated Sugar Bowl of the BCS era. | ||||
| NHL | Flyers/Bruins (Jan. 1) | NBC |
2.7
|
2.1
|
| The NHL Winter Classic drew a 2.1 final rating on NBC January 1, off 16% from a 2.5 for last year’s game, and the lowest rating in the three-year history of the event. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Jets/Bengals | 4:30 PM Saturday | NBC |
14.4
|
| The first half of the NFL’s Wild Card Saturday doubleheader is usually one of the lowest rated (if not the lowest rated) games of the entire postseason. Last year’s Cardinals/Falcons game drew a 13.1 rating; Washington/Seahawks in ’08 drew a 14.0. | ||||
| NFL | Eagles/Cowboys | 8 PM Saturday | NBC |
17.2
|
| Expect big numbers for this big market rivalry between the Cowboys and Eagles. Last year’s comparable Colts/Chargers game drew a 16.1. The last time the Cowboys played on Wild Card Saturday night, the game drew a 16.4. | ||||
| NFL | Ravens/Patriots | 1 PM Sunday | CBS |
16.7
|
| CBS should see a solid jump in ratings for this AFC Wild Card game between the Ravens and the always high-profile Patriots. Last year’s Ravens/Dolphins game drew a 15.0; Giants/Buccaneers two years ago drew a 15.1. The last time the Patriots played in the Wild Card round, their game (against the Jets) drew a 17.3 rating. | ||||
| NFL | Packers/Cardinals | 4:30 PM Sunday | FOX |
17.8
|
| This game may have the least hype of the four Wild Card matchups, but it does have the best timeslot. With that in mind, look for Packers/Cardinals to draw the highest rating of Wild Card weekend. Last year’s late Sunday afternoon Eagles/Vikings game drew a 17.6 rating, and Titans/Chargers two years ago drew a 16.7. | ||||
| Football | U.S. Army All-American Bowl | 1 PM Saturday | NBC |
1.5
|
| Ratings for the U.S. Army All-American Bowl have ranged from 1.4 to 1.7 over the past four years. Expect a rating in that range this year. | ||||
| College basketball | Kansas/Tennessee | 4:30 PM Sunday | CBS |
2.0
|
| With a lead-in from the Ravens/Patriots NFL Wild Card game, look for CBS to draw one of its highest college basketball ratings of the regular season on Sunday. Last year’s Kentucky/Louisville game, which aired after the Ravens/Dolphins Wild Card matchup, drew a 2.2 rating on CBS — the network’s third-highest college basketball rating of the season. | ||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Trail Blazers | 9 PM Sunday | ESPN |
1.3
|
| On the first Sunday night since last March without MLB or NFL action, ESPN presents the LeBron James-led Cavaliers against the Trail Blazers. Without much sports competition, look for the game to draw a fairly decent number. So far this season, NBA games on ESPN are averaging a 1.1 U.S. rating. | ||||
Source: Sports Business Daily
