Weekend Ratings Predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Saints/Colts	CBS	42.7	45.0
Super Bowl XLIV, featuring the Saints’ win over the Colts, drew a 45.0 final rating on CBS last Sunday night — up 7% from last year, up 4% from 2008, and the highest rating for the Super Bowl since Super Bowl XXX in ’96.
Other	Undercover Boss	CBS	11.8	19.1
CBS drew a 19.1 final rating for its post-Super Bowl show, the series premiere of the reality program Undercover Boss. The 19.1 marks a 65% increase over last year’s comparable episode of The Office on NBC.
NBA	Magic/Celtics	ABC	1.8	1.6
Last Sunday’s Magic/Celtics game drew a 1.6 final rating on ABC, down 11% from Cavaliers/Pistons last year, and even with Mavericks/Pistons in ’08.
NHL	Penguins/Capitals	NBC	1.0	1.1
The Capitals’ win over the Penguins last Sunday drew a 1.1 final rating on NBC, the highest for a non-Winter Classic regular season NHL telecast on NBC since ’07.
Golf (M)	Northern Trust Open, Third Round	NBC	1.5	1.4
Golf (M)	Northern Trust Open, Final Round	NBC	2.1	1.7
Ratings for the Northern Trust Open dropped 18% on Saturday and a whopping 49% on Sunday. Last year, the tournament did not air on Super Bowl weekend.
NASCAR	Daytona 500 Pole Qualifying	FOX	2.1	1.6
Pushed from Sunday to Saturday to avoid competing with Super Bowl festivities, Daytona 500 Pole Qualifying drew a 1.6 final rating on FOX — down 33% from last year and down 45% from ’08.
NASCAR	Budweiser Shootout	FOX	5.0	4.4
The Budweiser Shootout drew a 4.4 final rating on FOX last Saturday night, down 10% from last year, down 13% from ’08, and the lowest rating ever for the event on FOX.
NCAA BB (M)	Cal/UCLA or Wisconsin/Michigan	CBS	1.3	0.8
Regional college basketball action drew a 0.8 final rating on CBS last Saturday, up 33% from regional action on the comparable date last year.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
Olympics	2010 Winter Olympics	8 PM Saturday	NBC	12.8
Fresh off of the Opening Ceremonies, look for NBC to put up solid numbers for its first primetime telecast of the 2010 Vancouver Olympics. The first Saturday night of the ’06 Olympics drew a 13.5 rating, while the first Saturday night in ’98 drew a 12.3.
Olympics	2010 Winter Olympics	7 PM Sunday	NBC	13.5
NBC was supposed to feature the heavily hyped Lindsey Vonn on Sunday night, but her event has been postponed due to weather. Still, look for strong numbers on Sunday night. The comparable night of the ’06 games drew a 13.3 rating, while the comparable night in ’98 drew a 20.2.
NBA	NBA All-Star Saturday Night	8:30 PM Saturday	TNT	3.6
Ratings for NBA All-Star Saturday Night have hit record highs in each of the past three years, including a stellar 3.9 rating last year. However, opposite the Winter Olympics, and without the drawing power of Dwight Howard in the Dunk Contest, look for the numbers to decline.
NBA	2010 NBA All-Star Game	8:30 PM Sunday	TNT	5.0
Even with the Winter Olympics siphoning away viewers, TNT should draw strong numbers for the 2010 NBA All-Star Game at Cowboys Stadium. Over the past year, the allure of Cowboys Stadium has given NBC its highest rated Sunday Night Football game ever and ESPN its top early season college basketball telecast since ’06. With the high-profile setting and an expected record crowd, look for the NBA All-Star Game to also see an increase in ratings. Last year’s game drew a 4.5 rating, up from the previous year — and the first time since ’02 that the NBA All-Star Game had an increase in ratings.
NASCAR	Drive 4 COPD 300	1:15 PM Saturday	ESPN2	2.8
Danica Patrick makes her Nationwide Series debut on ESPN2 Saturday afternoon, in race that may actually be attracting more hype than the Daytona 500. Last year’s comparable race drew a solid 2.0 U.S. rating. With the Danica-effect already resulting in a 78% increase in ratings for last week’s ARCA Series race on Speed Channel, expect a much bigger number this time around.
NASCAR	Daytona 500	1:15 PM Sunday	FOX	9.8
The last time the Daytona 500 took place during the Winter Olympics, the race drew its highest rating since ’78. Of course, that year, the race aired on Olympic broadcaster NBC — not only allowing NASCAR to avoid going head-to-head with the Winter Games, but also providing a hefty promotional platform. With the Olympics serving as competition this year, do not expect anything near record numbers. That said, the ratings should rise from last year’s rain-shortened race (9.2).
NCAA BB (M)	Maryland/Duke	1 PM Saturday	CBS	1.3
NCAA BB (M)	Ohio St./Illinois	1 PM Sunday	CBS	1.0
With the Olympics, NBA All-Star Game and the Daytona 500 taking place this weekend, ordinary college basketball games may not seem like much. Still, look for CBS to carve out a decent audience for its weekend double-dip. On the comparable weekend last year, CBS drew a 1.2 rating on Saturday and a 1.1 on Sunday for college basketball action.
Golf (M)	AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, Third Round	3 PM Saturday	CBS	1.4
Golf (M)	AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, Final Round	3 PM Sunday	CBS	2.3
Ratings should rise by default for this weekend’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Last year, after the final round was canceled due to rain, CBS drew a mere 1.0 rating for its Sunday coverage (a replay of the ’08 final round). Expect this year’s numbers to rebound to 2008 levels, when final round coverage drew a 2.5.