Weekend Ratings Predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
Olympics	2010 Winter Olympics (Feb. 27)	NBC	10.9	11.7
The final night of competition at the 2010 Vancouver Olympics drew an 11.7 rating on NBC February 27, up 21% from the comparable night in ’06, but down 26% from the comparable night in ’02.
Olympics	Closing Ceremony	NBC	9.8	12.1
The Closing Ceremony of the Olympics drew a 12.1 rating on NBC last Sunday night, up 36% from ’06, but down 46% from ’02.
Olympics	Men’s Hockey Gold Medal Game (Canada/USA)	NBC	9.5	15.2
Last Sunday’s Canada/USA Olympic Men’s Hockey Gold Medal Game drew a 15.2 rating on NBC, the highest rating for a hockey telecast in the United States since the 1980 USA/Finland Gold Medal Game (23.2).
NBA	Suns/Spurs	ABC	1.4	1.3
The Spurs’ win over the Suns last Sunday drew a 1.3 rating on ABC, the lowest of the season for an NBA game on the network, and a 41% drop from Pistons/Celtics last year (2.2).
NBA	Nuggets/Lakers	ABC	2.6	2.0
Opposite the Canada/USA Gold Medal Game, last week’s Nuggets/Lakers matchup drew a 2.0 rating on ABC, off 36% from last year (3.1, Lakers/Suns).
NASCAR	Shelby American	FOX	5.9	4.4
Also facing the Gold Medal Game, last Sunday’s NASCAR Shelby American from Las Vegas drew a 4.4 rating on FOX — down 32% from a 6.5 last year, and the second-lowest rating in the 12-year history of the race.
NASCAR Nationwide	Sam’s Town 300	ESPN2	1.9	1.8
The February 27 Sam’s Town 300, the last NASCAR Nationwide Series race for Danica Patrick until June, drew a 1.8 U.S. rating on ESPN2, even with both last year and 2008.
NCAA BB (M)	Kentucky/Tennessee or Notre Dame/Georgetown	CBS	1.4	1.6
	North Carolina/Wake Forest		1.2	1.0
	Kansas/Okla. St.		1.8	1.3
	Louisville/Connecticut		1.3	0.7
	Michigan St./Purdue		1.7	0.8
Ratings for last week’s college basketball action on CBS were up 46% (12 PM Saturday, regional), down 33% (2 PM Sat., UNC/Wake), down 7% (4 PM Sat., Kansas/OK. St), down 59% (2 PM Sun., Louisville/Conn.) and down 43% (4 PM Sun., Mich. St/Purdue).

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NBA	Lakers/Magic	2:30 PM Sunday	ABC	2.0
Ratings for NBA games on ABC have been generally down from last year. Sunday’s NBA Finals rematch should buck that trend, if for no other reason than last year’s comparable Suns/Spurs game drew just a 1.6.
NHL	Red Wings/Blackhawks	12:30 PM Sunday	NBC	1.0
The NHL returns to NBC for the first time since the Olympics. After last Sunday’s Men’s Hockey Gold Medal Game drew a massive 15.2, will the NHL see a ratings boost? Last year’s comparable Bruins/Rangers game drew a 0.8. The last NHL game on NBC before the Olympic break drew a 1.1.
NASCAR	Kobalt Tools 500	1 PM Sunday	FOX	4.7
Without competition from the Winter Olympics, expect Sunday’s Kobalt Tools 500 to draw a higher rating than last week’s Shelby American (4.4). That said, look for ratings to drop from last year’s 5.5.
Golf (M)	Honda Classic, Third Round	3 PM Saturday	NBC	1.4
Golf (M)	Honda Classic, Final Round	3 PM Sunday	NBC	1.6
Last year’s Honda Classic set a very low bar to pass from a ratings perspective. Expect this year’s tournament to have a slight boost in ratings over last year (1.2 for Saturday, 1.5 for Sunday).
NCAA BB (M)	North Carolina/Duke	9 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.1
The biggest rivalry in college basketball does not have as much juice as in previous years. The first meeting of the season between UNC and Duke drew a 1.4 U.S. rating on ESPN, down 33% from last year’s comparable matchup. Look for Saturday’s rematch to also see a decline in ratings — both from last year’s comparable meeting on CBS (2.9), and from their 2008 Saturday night game on ESPN (3.4).
NCAA BB (M)	Florida/Kentucky	12 PM Sunday	CBS	1.7
	Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game	2 PM Sunday		1.4
	Michigan/Michigan St.	4 PM Sunday		1.3
John Wall and the Wildcats have been a solid draw this year. Look for Sunday’s Florida/Kentucky game to see a solid increase over last year’s comparable telecast (1.4, regional action). Later in the day, expect decent numbers for the Missouri Valley Championship Game (last year’s game drew a 1.3), and a steep drop for Michigan/Michigan St. (last year’s Duke/UNC telecast drew a 2.9).