Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including the NFL Hall of Fame Game, Red Sox/Yankees on FOX and ESPN, NASCAR on ESPN and golf’s Bridgestone Invitational.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NASCAR	Pennsylvania 500	ESPN	3.3	3.8
Last Sunday’s NASCAR Pennsylvania 500 drew a 3.8 U.S. rating on ESPN, even with 2008 and 2007 (last year’s race was rained out). The 3.8 rating is the highest of the season for a NASCAR race on cable.
Golf (W)	Women’s British Open, Third Round	ESPN	0.4	—
Golf (W)	Women’s British Open, Final Round	ESPN	0.7	—
U.S. HH ratings were not immediately available for the Women’s British Open.
MLB	Braves/Reds (42%), Tigers/Red Sox (37%) or Dodgers/Giants (20%)	FOX	1.5	2.2
Regional MLB action featuring Braves/Reds drew a 2.2 final rating on FOX last Saturday, up 22% from coverage featuring Yankees/White Sox last year (1.8) and even with coverage on the comparable date in ’08 (2.2). The 2.2 is the highest rating for afternoon MLB coverage on FOX since May 8.
Extreme	X Games 16	ESPN	0.8	0.8
ESPN drew a 0.8 U.S. rating for primetime coverage of X Games 16 last Saturday night, even with both last year and 2008. The 0.8 rating was the highest of the four primetime X Games telecasts.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Bengals/Cowboys	8 PM Sunday	NBC	6.0
The NFL returns with Sunday’s Hall of Fame Game on NBC. The Cowboys are playing in the Hall of Fame Game for the first time since 1999, when their game against the Browns drew a massive 10.1 rating — the last time the Hall of Fame Game drew a double-digit rating. While numbers that high are more than likely out of the question for this year’s game, look for the Cowboys’ matchup against Terrell Owens, Chad Ochocinco and the Bengals to easily surpass last year’s 4.9 for Bills/Titans.
NFL	Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony	7 PM Saturday	ESPN	0.7
The NFL Hall of Fame Ceremony has not attracted much of an audience over the past couple of years, drawing a 0.6 last year and a 0.7 in ’08. Expect similiarly low numbers this year.
MLB	Red Sox/Yankees (86%) or Rangers/Athletics (13%)	4 PM Saturday	FOX	2.7
In a season of mediocre ratings, FOX can count on the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry to attract better-than-average numbers. That said, the drawing power of the rivalry appears to be fading. Though the teams’ first meeting on FOX this year still ranks as the network’s highest rated afternoon telecast of the season, the 2.5 rating was one of the lowest in several years for a Yankees/Red Sox game on broadcast.
MLB	Red Sox/Yankees	8 PM Sunday	ESPN	2.4
Yankees/Red Sox has been a surprisingly average draw for ESPN this season, with the first two Sunday night games between the rivals putting up relatively pedestrian ratings of 2.0 and 2.1. Opposite the Hall of Fame Game, do not expect the ratings for this week’s clash to climb much higher. Last year, every Sunday night meeting between the teams drew a 3.0 U.S. rating.
NASCAR	Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400	1 PM Sunday	ESPN	3.4
After strong numbers for last week’s Pennsylvania 500, NASCAR resumes on ESPN with this week’s Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. Last year’s race was rained out, and the 2008 race drew just a 3.0 rating opposite the Olympics — leaving the door open for a PR-friendly three-year high in the ratings for this year’s race.
Golf (M)	WGC Bridgestone Invitational, Third Round	2 PM Saturday	CBS	1.6
Golf (M)	WGC Bridgestone Invitational, Final Round	1 PM Sunday	CBS	2.4
Tiger Woods is back, but continues to struggle. Though Woods still has a positive effect on the ratings, it is not nearly as substantial when he is out of contention. Eight of the nine highest golf ratings on broadcast this year have been for tournaments involving Woods, but most of those have been down from last year. Expect more of the same for this week’s Bridgestone Invitational. Last year’s tournament drew a 2.1 on Saturday and a 4.3 on Sunday.