Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including Week 7 of the NFL season, the National League Championship Series, college football action, and NASCAR’s Chase For The Cup.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Colts/Washington	NBC	12.8	11.7
NBC earned an 11.7 final rating for last Sunday’s Colts/Washington Sunday Night Football game, up 7% from last year and up 43% from 2008.
NFL	Cowboys/Vikings (96%)	FOX	16.0	15.7
The Vikings’ win over the Cowboys last Sunday drew a 15.7 final rating on FOX, up 8% from last year, up 7% from 2008, and the fourth-highest NFL rating of the season.
NFL	Falcons/Eagles (52%), DET/NYG (16%), SEA/CHI (16%) or NO/TB (7%)	FOX	9.4	7.3
FOX drew a 7.3 final rating for the first game of its NFL doubleheader last Sunday, down 22% from last year.
NFL	Ravens/Patriots, MIA/GB, CLE/PIT, KC/HOU, SD/STL, NYJ/DEN or OAK/SF	CBS	11.6	12.8
The Week 6 NFL singleheader earned a strong 12.8 final rating on CBS last week, up 16% from last year, and tied as the highest rating of the season for the singleheader window.
MLB	Yankees/Rangers Game 2	TBS	3.9	3.6
The first of four Ranger victories against the Yankees drew a 3.6 U.S. rating on TBS last Saturday afternoon, up 24% from last year’s Friday afternoon NLCS Game 2, but down 5% from Game 2 of the 2008 ALCS on a Saturday night.
MLB	Giants/Phillies Game 1	FOX	4.7	4.2
Ratings for Game 1 of the Giants/Phillies series were down both from last year’s ALCS opener (5.2) and from Game 1 of the ’08 NLCS (5.1).
MLB	Giants/Phillies Game 2	FOX	6.1	5.3
Giants/Phillies Game 2 drew a 5.3 final rating on FOX last Sunday night, down 9% from Game 2 of last year’s ALCS, but up 56% from Game 2 of the ’08 NLCS, which aired during the afternoon.
College Football	Texas/#5 Nebraska (79%) or #15 Iowa/Michigan (21%)	ABC	3.6	3.6
Regional college football action featuring Texas/Nebraska drew a 3.6 final rating on ABC last Saturday afternoon, up 13% from last year, but down 22% from 2008.
College Football	#12 Arkansas/#7 Auburn	CBS	4.2	2.9
CBS drew a 2.9 final rating for Arkansas/Auburn last Saturday afternoon, down 33% from last year.
College Football	Western Michigan/Notre Dame	NBC	1.0	1.3
The 1.3 final rating for Western Michigan/Notre Dame last Saturday marks a 41% decline from last year’s comparable game, and is tied as the lowest rating for a Notre Dame telecast on NBC since late 2007.
College Football	#1 Ohio State/#18 Wisconsin	ESPN	3.0	4.3
ESPN earned a 4.3 U.S. rating for Ohio State’s loss to Wisconsin last Saturday night, up 54% from last year, up 187% from 2008, and the second-highest college football rating of the season on the network.
College Football	Mississippi/#8 Alabama	ESPN2	1.8	1.8
Last Saturday’s Mississippi/Alabama game on ESPN2 drew a 1.8 U.S. rating on ESPN, topping recent Saturday night telecasts on the network.
College Football	BYU/#4 TCU	Versus	0.6	—
U.S. household ratings were not immediately available for last Saturday’s BYU/TCU game on Versus.
NASCAR	Bank of America 500	ABC	3.1	3.2
ABC drew a 3.2 final rating for last week’s NASCAR Bank of America 500, down 9% from last year, but easily the highest rating of the 2010 Chase For The Cup.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Vikings/Packers	8:15 PM Sunday	NBC	16.0
The Vikings have played in two of the four highest rated NFL games this season, and Sunday’s Vikings/Packers matchup should make it three out of five. Sunday’s game marks Brett Favre‘s second return to Lambeau Field since leaving the Packers after the 2007-08 season. Last year, his first game back drew a season-high 17.4 rating on FOX. Do not expect the numbers to climb quite as high for this year’s game. For one, Sunday night games typically do not do as well as the late afternoon national window. That said, the numbers should vault past last year’s comparable Cardinals/Giants game (9.1).
NFL	Patriots/Chargers or OAK/DEN	4:15 PM Sunday	CBS	12.9
Expect a sizable decline for this Sunday’s NFL national window, featuring the Patriots against the 2-4 Chargers. Last year’s Week 7 window featured Falcons/Cowboys and drew a massive 16.8 rating.
NFL	Steelers/Dolphins, CLE/NO, CIN/ATL, JAX/KC or BUF/BAL	1 PM Sunday	CBS	9.1
Ratings should drop for the first game of Sunday’s doubleheader on CBS. Though the telecast includes the top two teams in both the AFC North (Steelers and Ravens) and NFC South (Falcons and Saints), last year’s comparable telecast on FOX featured a tantalizing meeting between the Vikings and Steelers (11.4).
NFL	Washington/Bears (34%), PHI/TEN (33%), AZ/SEA (19%), SF/CAR (9%) or STL/TB (4%),	1 or 4 PM Sunday	FOX	10.9
Armed with high profile teams the Bears, Eagles and Washington, expect strong numbers for this week’s NFL singleheader window on FOX. Last year’s comparable telecast on CBS drew a mere 6.4 rating.
MLB	Giants/Phillies Game 6	8 PM Saturday	FOX	5.8
Ratings should decline for Saturday night’s Giants/Phillies Game 6. Last year’s ALCS Game 6 (9.3) not only featured the Yankees, but aired on a Sunday night as well — as opposed to Saturday, the least-viewed night of the week. The last NLCS Game 6 (2006) drew an 8.0 rating on a Wednesday night.
MLB	Giants/Phillies Game 7 (if necessary)	8 PM Sunday	FOX	9.0
A potential Giants/Phillies Game 7 on Sunday would air directly opposite Vikings/Packers on NBC, no doubt hurting the ratings. The last LCS Game 7 (Red Sox/Rays, 2008) drew a 7.9 rating on TBS; the last Game 7 on FOX (Indians/Red Sox, 2007) drew an 11.7. The last NLCS Game 7 (Cardinals/Mets, 2006) drew a 10.8 on FOX. With the NFL competition, Sunday’s Game 7 should fall behind the previous Game 7s on FOX, but top the ’08 Game 7 on TBS.
College Football	#13 Wisconsin/#15 Iowa (65%), #16 Nebraska/#14 Oklahoma State (20%) or Georgia Tech/Clemson (15%)	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	3.2
After a slow start, the last three afternoon college football telecasts on ABC have each topped a 3.0 rating. Expect more of the same this week, although the number should trail last year’s 4.5.
College Football	#1 Oklahoma/#11 Missouri	8 PM Saturday	ABC	4.5
The newest #1 team in the nation (in the BCS standings, at least) takes on a Top 25 conference rival on ABC Saturday night. Even opposite the NLCS on FOX, expect fairly strong numbers. Last year’s comparable Texas/Missouri telecast drew a 3.4.
College Football	Notre Dame/Navy	12 PM Saturday	CBS	1.6
Notre Dame football heads to CBS this week, coming off of back-to-back weeks with just a 1.3 rating on NBC. Last year’s Navy/Notre Dame game on NBC drew a 1.9 rating; the 2008 Notre Dame/Navy game on CBS drew the same rating.
College Football	#6 LSU/#4 Auburn	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	4.6
CBS features a battle of Top 10 SEC rivals on Saturday afternoon. While last week’s battle between Arkansas and Auburn was a dud in the ratings, expect both solid numbers and a solid increase for LSU/Auburn. Last year’s comparable Tennessee/Alabama game drew a 3.6.
College Football	#7 Michigan State/Northwestern	12 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.1
ESPN begins its college football coverage on Saturday with Michigan State facing Northwestern. Look for a modest decline in ratings from last year’s comparable Minnesota/Ohio State mtatchup (2.4).
College Football	#8 Alabama/Tennessee	7 PM Saturday	ESPN	3.0
Saturday night’s Alabama/Tennessee game should draw solid numbers for ESPN, though it may not match last year’s comparable Florida/Mississippi State matchup (3.4).
NASCAR	Tums Fast Relief 500	1 PM Sunday	ESPN	2.1
NASCAR returns to ESPN on Sunday, where the first four Chase For The Cup races each drew less than a 3.0 rating. This week’s Tums Fast Relief 500 could end up with the lowest rating yet; last year’s race drew an already-mediocre 2.9 on ABC.