Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including Week 9 of the NFL season, college football action, NASCAR’s Chase For The Cup, The Breeders Cup, and the New York City Marathon.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Steelers/Saints	NBC	10.8	10.7
Last week’s edition of Sunday Night Football drew a 10.7 final rating on NBC, topping Game 4 of the World Series on FOX (9.0) by 19%.
NFL	Vikings/Patriots (89%), TB/AZ (5%) or SEA/OAK (5%)	FOX	16.2	15.2
The Week 8 NFL national window drew a 15.2 final rating on FOX last Sunday, down 13% from last year, which featured Brett Favre‘s first return to Green Bay, and up 10% from 2008.
NFL	Packers/Jets (77%), CARSTL (8%) or WSH/DET (6%)	FOX	8.9	8.2
The first game of last week’s NFL doubleheader on FOX drew an 8.2 final rating, down 16% from last year, and down 7% from two years ago.
NFL	Jaguars/Cowboys, DEN/SF, MIA/CIN, BUF/KC or TEN/SD	CBS	8.0	8.6
The 8.6 final rating for last week’s NFL singleheader on CBS marks a 2% increase from last year, and a 15% rise from 2008.
MLB	Giants/Rangers Game 3	FOX	7.3	6.7
The Rangers’ only victory in the 2010 World Series earned a 6.7 final rating on FOX last Saturday night, down 26% from last year, but up 10% from 2008. The 6.7 rating is the second-lowest in World Series history.
MLB	Giants/Rangers Game 4	FOX	9.1	9.0
FOX drew a 9.0 final rating for the second-to-last baseball game of 2010, down 33% from last year, down 3% from 2008, and the lowest rated Game 4 in the history of the World Series.
College Football	#5 Michigan State/#18 Iowa (77%) or #6 Missouri/#14 Nebraska (23%)	ABC	3.6	3.3
Regional college football action drew a 3.3 final rating on ABC last Saturday, up 3% from last year, but down 35% from 2008.
College Football	#2 Oregon/USC (79%) or #11 Ohio State/Minnesota	ABC	3.7	4.7
The latest edition of Saturday Night Football earned a 4.7 final rating on ABC, up 12% from last year, but down 27% from two years ago. The telecast is tied as the highest rated college football telecast of the season on ABC.
College Football	Florida/Georgia	CBS	3.0	3.3
Florida’s overtime win over Georgia last week drew a 3.3 final rating on CBS, down 25% from last year’s telecast, which featured the same two teams, but up 10% from 2008.
College Football	Tulsa/Notre Dame	NBC	1.2	1.6
The 1.6 final rating for last week’s Tulsa/Notre Dame tilt on NBC marks a 14% increase from last year, and is even with 2008.
College Football	#22 Miami/Virginia	ESPN	2.0	1.7
ESPN earned a 1.7 U.S. rating for Miami/Virginia last Saturday afternoon, down 39% from last year, and down 6% from ’08.
College Football	Michigan/Penn State	ESPN	1.8	1.7
Last Saturday night’s Michigan/Penn State game drew a 1.7 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 13% from last year, but down 29% from 2008.
College Football	#1 Auburn/Mississippi	ESPN2	2.4	1.6
Then-BCS #1 Auburn’s win over Mississippi last Saturday drew a 1.6 U.S. rating on ESPN2, the lowest rating of the season for a nationally televised game involving the nation’s #1 team.
NASCAR	Amp Energy Juice 500	ESPN	3.1	3.1
Last Sunday’s NASCAR Amp Energy Juice 500 drewa 3.1 U.S. rating on ESPN, down 24% from last year, down 33% from 2008, and the lowest rating for the race since 2000. That said, the race was easily ESPN’s highest-rated Chase For The Cup race of the season.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Cowboys/Packers	8:15 PM Sunday	NBC	12.0
The Cowboys enter Sunday’s battle against the Packers 1-6, which one imagines would not be too good for ratings. However, a couple of factors could keep the numbers above par. For one, the Cowboys could attract a number of schadenfreude-seekers to Sunday’s telecast, who hope to watch the team continue to lose. Additionally, the Cowboys and Packers are two of the more famous franchises in sports regardless of record, which makes this matchup a bit more appetizing than last week’s Jaguars/Cowboys game on CBS. Expect a decine from last year’s 13.1 for Cowboys/Eagles, but an increase over last week’s 10.7 for Steelers/Saints.
NFL	Colts/Eagles OR KC/OAK	4:15 PM Sunday	CBS	14.1
The primary game of Sunday’s NFL national window features high profile quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Michael Vick in a battle of playoff contenders, while the secondary game features a battle at the top of the AFC West between the Chiefs and Raiders. Look for a solid boost in ratings over last year (11.8).
NFL	Dolphins/Ravens, SD/HOU, NYJ/DET or NE/CLE	1 PM Sunday	CBS	8.3
Three of the four early games on CBS feature at least one sub-.500 team, but the primary matchup pits the 4-3 Dolphins against the 5-2 Ravens. That may not be enough to lift the ratings past last year’s comparable window (8.7).
NFL	Giants/Seahawks (36%), AZ/MIN (31%), TB/ATL (14%), NO/CAR (10%) or CHI/BUF (8%)	1 or 4 PM Sunday	FOX	9.8
The primary game of this week’s NFL singleheader on FOX features a pair of division leaders in the Giants and Seahawks. Other games include a battle at the top of the NFC South between the Buccaneers and Falcons, the defending champion Saints trying to keep pace with both, and the soap opera Vikings hosting the Cardinals. Look for ratings to hold generally steady with last year’s comparable window (9.7).
College Football	Washington/#1 Oregon (40%), Northwestern/Penn State (26%), UNC/FSU (21%) or Nebraska/Iowa State (13%)	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	3.3
Albeit against a 3-5 opponent, the nation’s fifth-different #1 team in as many weeks gets the featured slot on ABC’s afternoon college football telecast this week. Even so, expect a small decline in ratings from last year’s 3.7 for coverage featuring Penn State/Ohio State.
College Football	#15 Arizona/#13 Stanford (82%) or #12 Missouri/Texas Tech (18%)	8 PM Saturday	ABC	3.8
This week’s edition of Saturday Night Football features a Pac-10 battle between Arizona and Stanford. Do not expect blockbuster numbers, although the telecast should rise slightly above last year’s comparable telecast, which featured Connecticut/Cincinnati (3.6).
College Football	#6 Alabama/#10 LSU	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	4.5
CBS should earn good numbers for this week’s battle of top ten teams, as Nick Saban takes his defending champion Crimson Tide on the road to face his former team, LSU. On the comparable date last year, another LSU/Alabama game earned a 4.3 rating for CBS; Saban’s first return to Baton Rouge (2008) earned a 5.1.
College Football	Illinois/Michigan	12 PM Saturday	ESPN	1.6
Expect ratings to drop for Saturday’s Noon ET Illinois/Michigan matchup on ESPN. Last year’s comparable telecast drew a 2.1; the comparable telecast in ’08 drew a 1.8.
College Football	#18 Arkansas/#19 South Carolina	7 PM Saturday	ESPN	1.9
ESPN features a matchup of ranked SEC teams Saturday night, as Arkansas faces South Carolina. Though the numbers may not exactly be massive, expect a rise in ratings from last year’s FSU/Clemson game (1.4).
College Football	Texas/Kansas State	8 PM Saturday	ESPN2	1.3
Over on ESPN2, unranked Texas takes on Kansas State in primetime Saturday night. Expect a double-digit drop from last year’s comparable telecast, which featured #1 Florida (1.8).
NASCAR	Texas 500	3 PM Sunday	ESPN	2.8
In each of the past three years, the Texas 500 has drawn a 3.7 rating. However, all three of those races aired on ABC. On ESPN, where ratings have dropped dramatically for Chase For The Cup races this season, expect far lower numbers.
Horse	The Breeders Cup	1:30 PM Saturday	ABC	1.0
Friday’s fight between jockeys Calvin Borel and Javier Castllano brought some added attention to The Breeders Cup, but will that translate into better ratings? Last year’s ABC telecast drew a 0.9, down from a 1.0 the previous year.
Other	New York City Marathon (taped)	2 PM Sunday	NBC	0.8
Last year’s New York City Marathon drew a 0.7 final rating, up from the previous two years (0.4 in 2008, 0.6 in 2007). Expect another increase this year, though the race should again finish below 1.0.