Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including Week 10 of the NFL season, college football action, NASCAR’s Chase For The Cup, and the MLS Playoffs.
First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Cowboys/Packers | NBC |
12.0
|
11.6
|
| NBC drew an 11.6 final rating for the Packers’ blowout win over the Cowboys last Sunday night, down 12% from last year, but up 9% from 2008. | ||||
| NFL | Colts/Eagles (76%) or KC/OAK | CBS |
14.1
|
16.3
|
| The Week 9 NFL national window on CBS drew a 16.3 final rating last Sunday afternoon, up 38% from last year, up 14% from ’08, and the third-highest NFL rating of the season. | ||||
| NFL | Dolphins/Ravens, SD/HOU, NYJ/DET or NE/CLE | CBS |
8.3
|
9.6
|
| Earlier Sunday, additional regional action on CBS drew a 9.6 final rating, up 10% from last year, up 12% from 2008, and the highest rating of the season for the first game of an NFL doubleheader. | ||||
| NFL | Giants/Seahawks (36%), AZ/MIN (31%), TB/ATL (14%), NO/CAR (10%) or CHI/BUF (8%) | FOX |
9.8
|
9.8
|
| Last week’s NFL singleheader window earned a 9.8 final rating on FOX, up a tick from last year and up 23% from 2008. | ||||
| College Football | Washington/#1 Oregon (40%), Northwestern/Penn State (26%), UNC/FSU (21%) or Nebraska/Iowa State (13%) | ABC |
3.3
|
3.5
|
| Regional college football action drew a 3.5 final rating on ABC last Saturday afternoon, down 5% from both last year and 2008. | ||||
| College Football | #15 Arizona/#13 Stanford (82%) or #12 Missouri/Texas Tech (18%) | ABC |
3.8
|
2.7
|
| ABC drew a 2.7 final rating for regional college football action last Saturday night, down 25% from last year, down 64% from ’08, and tied as the lowest rating in four years for Saturday Night Football. | ||||
| College Football | #6 Alabama/#10 LSU | CBS |
4.5
|
4.4
|
| LSU’s win over Alabama last week drew a 4.4 final rating on CBS, up 3% from last year, and up 16% from 2008. | ||||
| College Football | Illinois/Michigan | ESPN |
1.6
|
2.9
|
| ESPN drew a 2.9 U.S. rating for Illinois/Michigan last Saturday afternoon, up 38% from last year, and up 61% from 2008. | ||||
| College Football | #18 Arkansas/#19 South Carolina | ESPN |
1.9
|
2.3
|
| The 2.3 U.S. rating for last Saturday night’s Arkansas/South Carolina game marks a 64% increase from last year. | ||||
| College Football | Texas/Kansas State | ESPN2 |
1.3
|
0.9
|
| Also last Saturday night, Texas/Kansas State drew just a 0.9 U.S. rating on ESPN2, down 50% from last year. | ||||
| NASCAR | Texas 500 | ESPN |
2.8
|
2.9
|
| NASCAR’s Texas 500 earned a 2.9 U.S. rating on ESPN last Sunday, down 22% from both last year and 2008, but the network’s second-highest Chase For The Cup rating of the season. | ||||
| Horse | The Breeders’ Cup | ABC |
1.0
|
1.2
|
| Coverage of The Breeders’ Cup drew a 1.2 final rating on ABC last Saturday afternoon, up 33% from last year, up 20% from ’08, and the highest rating for The Breeders’ Cup on broadcast since NBC last aired the event in ’05 (1.5). | ||||
| Other | New York Marathon (taped) | NBC |
0.8
|
0.7
|
| NBC drew a 0.7 final rating for coverage of the New York City marathon last weekend, even with last year and up 75% from 2008. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Patriots/Steelers | 8:15 PM Sunday | NBC |
13.5
|
| NBC offers a battle of longtime rivals on this week’s edition of Sunday Night Football, as the 6-2 Steelers host the 6-2 Patriots. Expect strong numbers, although the game may not quite match the 13.7 for last year’s Patriots/Colts thriller. | ||||
| NFL | Cowboys/Giants (83%), STL/SF (9%) or SEA/AZ (6%) | 4:15 PM Sunday | FOX |
14.3
|
| The Cowboys/Giants rivalry typically draws big numbers. Their first matchup of the season was ESPN’s fourth-highest rated Monday Night Football telecast ever, and both of their meetings last year attracted at least 15% of U.S. TV households. While this week’s matchup should easily top their aforementioned October MNF meeting, the Cowboys’ nightmare season should keep the numbers from reaching last year’s levels. Last year’s Week 10 national window featured Cowboys/Packers and drew a 15.9. | ||||
| NFL | Vikings/Bears (84%), CAR/TB (5%) or DET/BUF (4%) | 1 PM Sunday | FOX |
9.4
|
| The early window on FOX features the NFL’s other soap opera team, the 3-5 Vikings, as they take on the Bears. The network’s other early telecasts include the 2-6 Lions and the 1-7 Panthers. Despite the mediocre teams in action, the Vikings’ off-field drama should help boost the numbers well beyond last year’s 7.2. | ||||
| NFL | Titans/Dolphins, NYJ/CLE, CIN/IND, HOU/JAX or KC/DEN | 1 or 4 PM Sunday | CBS |
9.0
|
| Expect a modest decline for Sunday’s NFL singleheader window, which features Titans/Dolphins in most markets. Each of the network’s games includes at least one team that is .500 or lower, including the 2-6 Bengals, 2-6 Broncos and 3-5 Browns. Last year’s telecast earned a 9.8. | ||||
| College Football | Penn State/#9 Ohio State (69%), Texas Tech/#16 Oklahoma (16%) or #20 Virginia Tech/North Carolina | 3:30 PM Saturday | ABC |
3.8
|
| The ESPN/ABC game of the week, at least if one goes by the presence of Brent Musburger and Kirk Herbstreit, is Saturday afternoon’s Penn State/Ohio State matchup. While the numbers should be solid, expect a drop from last year’s 4.3 for coverage featuring Iowa/Ohio State. | ||||
| College Football | #10 Oklahoma State/Texas (61%), Clemson/Florida State (20%) or USC/Arizona (19%) | 8 PM Saturday | ABC |
3.5
|
| Saturday Night Football features three unranked traditional powers — Texas, Florida State and USC. While none of those marquee college football programs will contend for a title this year, perhaps they can attract a solid audience based on name recognition alone. Last year’s comparable telecast featured Notre Dame/Pittsburgh and drew a 3.7. | ||||
| College Football | Mississippi/Tennessee | 12 PM Saturday | CBS |
2.1
|
| CBS begins its college football doubleheader with a battle between Mississippi and Tennessee. Look for the numbers to hover around last year’s 2.2 for the same matchup in the same timeslot. | ||||
| College Football | Georgia/#2 Auburn | 3:30 PM Saturday | CBS |
3.6
|
| Though lacking the storylines of the comparable games both last week and last year — both of which featured prominent coaches facing their old teams — Saturday’s Georgia/Auburn matchup should still put up fairly decent numbers. | ||||
| College Football | #14 Utah/Notre Dame | 2:30 PM Saturday | NBC |
1.7
|
| Even with a Top 25 opponent, expect a drop for NBC’s seventh Notre Dame telecast of the season. Last year’s seventh game, against Navy, earned a 1.9. | ||||
| College Football | #13 Iowa/Northwestern | 12 PM Saturday | ESPN |
2.0
|
| Last week’s Illinois/Michigan game drew one of ESPN’s largest Noon ET college football audiences ever, with a 2.9 U.S. rating. Expect this week’s Noon game, which features another Big Ten battle, to fall back towards earth. | ||||
| College Football | #23 South Carolina/#22 Florida | 7:15 PM Saturday | ESPN |
2.4
|
| Steve Spurrier returns to Florida in primetime Saturday, as the Gamecocks and Gators face off in a battle at the bottom of the Top 25. Last year’s comparable Alabama/Mississippi State game drew a 2.2; expect similar, if not slightly higher, numbers for Saturday’s game. | ||||
| College Football | #19 Mississippi State/#12 Alabama | 7:15 PM Saturday | ESPN2 |
1.5
|
| The two-loss defending national champion Crimson Tide host Mississippi State on ESPN2 Saturday night. While the same matchup on ESPN last year drew a 2.2 U.S. rating, expect smaller numbers for this year’s game. Last year’s comparable ESPN2 telecast (Auburn/Georgia) earned a 1.3. | ||||
| College Football | San Diego State/#3 TCU | 4 PM Saturday | Versus |
0.4
|
| #1 Oregon/California | 7:30 PM Saturday |
0.6
|
||
| Versus features two of the top three teams in the nation on Saturday, as TCU hosts San Diego State and Oregon faces California. While numbers will no doubt pale in comparison to college football action on ESPN, NBC, ABC and CBS, the games should do well by Versus standards. | ||||
| NASCAR | Kobalt Tools 500 | 3 PM Sunday | ESPN |
2.6
|
| In a year of sizable declines for Chase For The Cup races on ESPN, a drop for Sunday’s Kobalt Tools 500 (not to be confused with the early season race of the same name) seems like a sure thing. Last year’s race on ABC drew a 3.3 rating, marking the fourth-straight year of declines for the race. Ratings have dropped between 17% and 31% for every Chase race on ESPN this season; if that trend continues, Sunday’s telecast will finish somewhere between 2.3 and 2.7. | ||||
| MLS | FC Dallas/Galaxy | 9 PM Sunday | ESPN2 |
0.4
|
| The MLS Western Conference Final takes place Sunday night, as the Galaxy host F.C. Dallas. Last year’s West Final between the Dynamo and Galaxy earned a 0.5 rating on ESPN2, ranking as the network’s most-viewed MLS telecast. That telecast had a less appealing timeslot (11 PM ET on a Friday night), but a strong-lead in from college football. | ||||
