Holiday Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including Week 16 of the NFL season, the NBA’s Christmas Day games, and college football bowl games.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Packers/Patriots	NBC	14.0	14.0
NBC earned a 14.0 rating for Sunday’s Packers/Patriots game, up 27% from last year, and up 2% from 2008.
NFL	Jets/Steelers or DEN/OAK	CBS	15.3	15.0
The Week 15 NFL national window on CBS earned a 15.0 final rating, down a tick from last year, and up 2% from ’08.
NFL	Jaguars/Colts, KC/STL, BUF/MIA, CLE/CIN or HOU/TEN	CBS	8.8	7.4
CBS earned a 7.4 final rating for the first game of its Week 15 doubleheader, up 10% from last year (6.7), but down 6% from 2008 (7.9).
NFL	Eagles/Giants (50%), ATL/SEA (18%), WSH/DAL (15%), NO/BAL (7%), AZ/CAR (5%) or DET/TB (4%)	FOX	13.0	13.0
The Week 15 singleheader window on FOX drew a 13.0 final rating, up 18% from last year, and the highest rating of the past two seasons for the NFL singleheader window.
NCAA FB	New Mexico Bowl (BYU/UTEP)	ESPN	2.3	1.8
ESPN drew a 1.8 U.S. rating for Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl, down 25% from last year, and down 18% from 2008.
NCAA FB	Humanitarian Bowl (Northern Illinois/Fresno State)	ESPN	2.1	1.8
The 1.8 U.S. rating for Saturday’s Humanitarian Bowl marks a 14% drop from both last year and 2008.
NCAA FB	New Orleans Bowl (Ohio/Troy)	ESPN	1.5	1.3
Saturday night’s New Orleans Bowl drew a 1.3 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 86% from both last year and 2008. The 2009 and 2008 games both aired on Sunday nights, opposite NBC’s Sunday Night Football.
NCAA BB (M)	South Carolina/#2 Ohio State or Stanford/Butler	CBS	0.9	0.7
The first half of Saturday’s college basketball doubleheader on CBS drew a 0.7 final rating, even with last year.
NCAA BB (M)	#25 Texas/North Carolina	CBS	1.2	1.2
Texas/North Carolina drew a 1.2 final rating on CBS Saturday afternoon, down a tick from last year’s Duke/Gonzaga game.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Cowboys/Cardinals	7:30 PM Saturday	NFLN	4.5
For the second year in a row, NFL Network offers viewers live NFL action on Christmas night. The Cowboys have proven that they can still attract big audiences despite their 5-9 record — although they usually do so against other high-profile opponents. The 4-10 Cardinals do not exactly fit the bill. That said, expect big numbers for Saturday’s game. Last year’s Christmas game drew a 3.3.
NFL	Jets/Bears, BAL/CLE, NE/BUF, TEN/KC, IND/OAK, SD/CIN or HOU/DEN	1 or 4 PM Sunday	CBS	11.2
The Week 16 NFL singleheader features a big market battle between the 10-4 Jets and 10-4 Bears. Other games include the 12-2 Patriots, 10-4 Ravens, 9-5 Chiefs, 8-6 Colts, 8-6 Chargers, and 7-7 Raiders, all of whom are in playoff contention. Expect strong numbers. Last year’s comparable window drew a 9.0 on FOX.
NFL	49ers/Rams (61%), WSH/JAX (23%) or DET/MIA (6%)	1 PM Sunday	FOX	8.3
More than half of the country gets Sunday’s 49ers/Rams game in the FOX early window Sunday afternoon. While the game is a crucial battle in the NFC West race, it also features two sub-.500 teams. Do not expect big time ratings. Last year’s comparable window drew a 9.4.
NFL	Giants/Packers (90%) or SEA/TB (6%)	4:15 PM Sunday	FOX	15.5
Both the Giants and Packers will be fighting for their playoff lives in Sunday’s Week 15 national window. The high stakes and high-profile teams should result in strong ratings, although perhaps not as strong as last year’s window (16.3).
NFL	Vikings/Eagles	8:20 PM Sunday	NBC	12.9
The Vikings are out of the playoff race, and once again there is no word on whether QB Brett Favre will play. But the drama over Favre could actually add to the hype for Sunday’s game, and the possibility of Favre facing off against Eagles QB Michael Vick must be tantalizing for NBC. Favre or no Favre, expect a solid rise compared to last year’s game (10.9).
NCAA FB	Hawaii Bowl (#24 HI/TUL)	8 PM Friday	ESPN	1.8
The Christmas Eve Hawaii Bowl pits #24 Hawaii against unranked Tulsa. Last year’s SMU/Nevada game drew a 1.7; Notre Dame/Hawaii two years ago drew a 2.6. Look for this year’s game to finish closer to the former than the latter.
NCAA FB	Little Caesars Bowl (FIU/TOL)	8:30 PM Sunday	ESPN	1.3
Last year’s Little Caesars Bowl drew a solid 2.6 U.S. rating the day after Christmas, but that game took place on a Saturday afternoon without NFL competition. This year’s game gets a Sunday night slot opposite Vikings/Eagles on NBC. Expect a big decline.
NBA	Bulls/Knicks	12 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.2
The NBA opens its Christmas Day quintuple-header with the Knicks hosting the Bulls in a battle of resurgent, big market teams. Last year’s comparable Heat/Knicks Christmas Day game drew a 1.7 rating and actually finished as ESPN’s top game of the season. Expect this year’s game to do even better.
NBA	Celtics/Magic	2:30 PM Saturday	ABC	3.6
For the second year in a row, the early Christmas Day window on ABC pits the Celtics against the Magic in a playoff rematch. This year’s game has a bit more juice than last year, with the Celtics entering on a 14-game winning streak and the Magic less-than-a-week removed from a major trade. Ratings should rise from last year’s 3.3.
NBA	Heat/Lakers	5 PM Saturday	ABC	6.5
On Saturday, December 25, the Heat and their high-profile free agency addition head to L.A. to face Kobe Bryant and the Lakers. What year is it, 2010 or 2004? Believe it or not, this year’s game does not feature as much hype as the 2004 clash, which had months of sometimes ugly build-up. Even so, this year’s matchup could challenge the ’04 game as the NBA’s top regular season telecast since 1998 (7.3). Already this season, the Heat have attracted TNT’s two biggest regular season audiences since 1996 and six of ESPN’s eleven biggest audiences since ’02. Meanwhile, the two-time defending champion Lakers remain a big draw themselves. No matter what, the numbers should finish well above last year’s Cavaliers/Lakers game (4.4).
NBA	Nuggets/Thunder	8 PM Saturday	ESPN	1.4
The Christmas Day quintuple-header continues with Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets facing Kevin Durant and the Thunder. One imagines most viewers will tune out of the NBA’s Christmas showcase once Heat/Lakers is over. Still, expect this game to at least draw numbers close to ESPN’s pre-Christmas regular season average (1.5).
NBA	Trail Blazers/Warriors	10:30 PM Saturday	ESPN	0.9
The last Christmas Day matchup is also the least appealing, as the Brandon Roy-less Blazers face the perenially sub-.500 Warriors. This matchup didn’t look quite as bad in early November, when the Blazers were 6-3 and the Warriors were 6-2.

(pifeedback.com; nielsen.com)

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Jon Lewis

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.