Idle Notes For '14

Predictions for the next year in sports media.

Ratings

Thanks to the New York location and the possibility of snow, Super Bowl 48 between the Patriots and Saints earns a record 113 million viewers on FOX.

NBC’s primetime coverage of the Winter Olympics is the second-lowest rated ever (13.0), ahead of only Turin in 2006. However, live figure skating boosts NBC Sports Network to record-highs, even surpassing the network’s coverage of the London Olympics in 2012.

The final World Cup on ESPN/ABC builds on the record numbers set in 2010, averaging a 3.0 rating and over five million viewers on the two networks alone. Univision chips in an additional three million of its own, bringing the total average to eight million viewers. The World Cup final earns over 28 million viewers across ABC and Univision.

The BCS era ends with a cable record 27.3 million viewers for the Auburn/Florida State championship game. ESPN also hits multi-year highs for the Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowls, with the Baylor/UCF Fiesta Bowl the only dud.

The NBA dodged the ratings nightmare of Pacers/Spurs in 2013 and does so again in 2014. However, the Thunder/Pacers NBA Finals hits a five-year low in the ratings, averaging an 8.6 over six games.

The NCAA Tournament Final Four semis hit an 11-year low in ratings and viewership on TBS, but the simulcasts on TNT and TruTV are strong enough to keep the overall numbers solid.

With only twelve telecasts on the schedule – and all in primetime – FOX averages a six-year high 2.1 rating for regular season baseball. The Tigers/Cardinals World Series averages a 9.2 rating for seven games.

More is less for the NHL, as all six “Stadium Series” games rank below the least-viewed Winter Classic.

TV Deals

ESPN, to the surprise of no one, holds onto NBA TV rights. In the new deal, the NBA Finals shifts from ABC to ESPN starting in 2017. Meanwhile, Fox Sports swipes the other NBA package from TNT, with Fox Sports 1 getting Thursday night doubleheaders, NBA All-Star Weekend, and most of the playoffs starting in the 2016-17 season. Turner Sports maintains its partnership with the league on NBA Digital (including NBA TV and NBA.com).

Having acquired NBA TV rights, Fox Sports fades as a challenger in the Big Ten TV race. By the end of the year, ESPN is widely expected to hold onto its current package.

Personnel Moves

In the struggle to find a good fit for Erin Andrews, FOX moves her from college football to the NFL full-time, with Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch and Andrews becoming the network’s official #2 broadcast team.

FOX goes with a three-man booth on Major League Baseball games, adding Turner Sports’ John Smoltz and Tom Verducci to replace the retired Tim McCarver. Speaking of whom, McCarver ends up taking a small role on TBS, working occasional regular season games and one of the network’s Division Series.

Fox Sports hires John Daly as a contributor for its golf coverage.

Turner Sports taps Marv Albert for the NCAA Final Four semifinals, but CBS’ Jim Nantz continues to call the championship game. Greg Anthony and Steve Kerr work all three games.

Despite some rumblings about an overhaul, ESPN makes no major changes to its college football broadcast team entering the first playoff season. Chris Fowler stays put on “College Gameday,” and Brent Musburger remains the network’s lead play-by-play voice.

Miscellaneous

Fox Sports 1 shortens “Crowd Goes Wild” to a half-hour, replaces most of the “Fox Sports Live” panel, and by the end of the year unveils a new graphics package.

With ESPN and Turner Sports providing multi-network presentations of the BCS title game and Final Four, respectively, simulcasts of big events become en vogue. ESPN puts Game 1 of the NBA Finals on ABC, ESPN and ESPNEWS, while FOX puts the Big Ten Championship Game on both FOX and Fox Sports 1.

The NFL awards ESPN rights to a Wild Card playoff game starting in 2015.

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Jon Lewis

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.

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Comments 20

Nicholas says:

13 years ago

Maybe this could happen:

2014 Sports Predictions:

In the BCS National Championship, Florida State defeats Auburn 42-41 in OT and the game has the highest ratings of any college football game since 2006.

In the AFC Championship, Cincinnati defeats Denver 35-31 and has more than 75 million viewers.

In Super Bowl XLVIII, the Cincinnati Bengals lose to the Seattle Seahawks 24-21 in the Super Bowl’s first OT ever with a TV audience of 125 million viewers and has a rating of 23.9.

The Daytona 500 has a last lap pass and Kurt Busch wins, with the race drawing an 11.3 rating.

In March of 2014, the MLS signs a pair of 4 year, $80 million dollar TV deals with NBC and CBS. CBS airs the two semifinals while NBC airs the championship on even years, and on odd years the deal is reversed.

The Colorado Buffaloes knock off the Duke Blue Devils in the NCAA Tournament final as 30 million people tune in to CBS to watch the game and it receives a 12.6 rating.

CBS does not submit a bid for the NBA TV rights by the April 14th deadline.

Jim Furyk wins the Masters and Tiger Woods finishes +13 with two double bogeys on the final day.

NBCSN creates a new sports show called Pro Hockey Talk which airs at 4:00 PM ET and a Pro Golf Talk at 3:00 PM ET. Mark Lazurus says a Pro Basketball Talk would be created if NBC wins the NBA TV rights.

The Toronto Maple Leafs sweep the St. Louis Blues, but all 4 games go to overtime. Game 2 is the most watched, with 24 million viewers in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Fox purchases the US Men’s National Team rights in a $60 million, 5 year deal.

The Indiana Pacers defeat the Los Angeles Clippers in 7 games in the NBA Finals. 70 million people watch game 7, which receives a 20.3 rating when Paul George drains a 3 point buzzer beater from half court to win.

Two days after a dramatic game 7, the NBA selects TNT and Fox to air games. Fox pays $15 billion for 10 years, while Turner forks over $17 billion for 10 years. The finals is on TNT. Also, CBS airs 3 special Christmas Day games under TNT sub-licensing.

Rafael Nadal wins Wimbeldon, although ratings decline significantly.

ESPN’s Dan Le Batard is running awfully and is replaced by making College Football Live one hour long.

LeBron James signs with the Los Angeles Clippers. He signs a $150M/6 year deal.

ESPN adds more college hockey coverage by attaining exclusive first- and second-tier rights to ECAC and WCHA hockey.

ESPN creates SEC Network which has a daily show named SEC Live covering every SEC sport and it averages a 1.0 rating in its 5:00 timeslot after 3 weeks.

Boise State gets destroyed 40-7 against Ole Miss in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff, but are added as members of the Pac-12 along with Nevada, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State one day later.

The Phoenix Coyotes are sold to Seattle and are named the Wolfpack. They start playing in Seattle for the whole season on October 30th.

The Detroit Tigers win 112 games, fall 3 wins short of passing Yankees’ record of 114 in 1998.

Yasiel Puig is named NL MVP after getting 87 stolen bases and 23 triples.

The Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series in six games. 54 million people watch Puig and the Dodgers win the Series in game 6 which receives a 13.2 rating.

Fox Sports Live has 1 million viewers on November 28th, directly following Cal’s defeat of Stanford. Sonny Dykes’ squad goes 6-6 on the year, and Stanford loses to Oregon and Cal.

NBCSN has large success after 15 months with its show SportsDash and takes ESPN analyst Joe Tessitore.

CBS Sports Network’s ROME overtakes Pro Football Talk as number 2 sports-related show at 6:00 pm.
- JR says:
  
  13 years ago
  
  haha this is just too bold, thanks for the great laugh
Nicholas says:

13 years ago

If NBA wanted the finals on cable, then they should dump ABC altogether and put the finals on TNT and give AMC a third party package, because Fox would be too tempted to ask for broadcast rights. Then, Fox will claim the Big Ten Rights
JakeFrankie says:

13 years ago

Every single time you predict the NBA Finals ratings will be lower than the previous year.

I got Heat vs OKC (Rematch of 2012) Goes 6 games averages a 10.7 with Heat getting a 3peat (First 3peat Since the Lakers 00-02 and First East Team to 3peat since the Bulls 96-98) just my take.
Drew says:

13 years ago

I totally agree. It is too soon for the NBA Finals to be on cable. Just because College Football took the money and ran with it I doubt Adam Sliver or the ghost of David Stern would allowed it. Fox Sports has a chance of picking up games but I think Turner and ESPN/ABC is likely to retain them. Fox Roster has deepen lately and most likely Kevin Burkhardt, Thom , Curt Menefree,Gus Johnson and Joe Buck (if he want) would call games. Joe would only get involved if they got a conference finals or NBA Finals. Joe hasn’t called basketball professionally only at high school/college level. I still think Superbowl, NBA Finals, World Series will remain on Big Networks for a while.

I still believe Jim Nantz and Greg Gumbel Both will get new partners next year in NFL coverage. Also watch out for Trent Dilfer jumping shift as well.
David Person says:

13 years ago

Paulsen I believe ESPN and Turner will retain the NBA, but can you see scenario where the league would create a third package for Fox Sports on Sat. and Sun. after the College FB and NFL seasons are over?
- Morgan Wick says:
  
  13 years ago
  
  You mean creating an MLB-esque three-way unholy monstrosity?
  - David Person says:
    
    13 years ago
    
    Exactly but with the NBA having three broadcast partners would not be a monstrosity because the NBA is a better national tv product than MLB.
Tati says:

13 years ago

1. Oh No… No Joe Buck on my NBA games please!. Could you imagine NBA Finals announced by Joe Buck??? Unless if they import the entire TNT crew then I am not buying hahaha.

2. NBA Finals on cable? Come on. That would be a huge mistake.

3. I think NBC really want some NBA games. Just try to listen to SNF. They really reference basketball and NBA a lot. But NBC is one of those companies that have so little ambitions, so, we will see.
- Morgan Wick says:
  
  13 years ago
  
  2. “What is this ‘broadcast’ you speak of? You mean the dog we toss scraps to?” If the BCS Title Game is on cable and they just tripled down on it by keeping the college football playoff on cable for the next twelve years…
  3. What would be worse for the NHL than ESPN and Fox sharing the NBA and closing off any escape route from “so little ambitions” NBC? NBC itself picking up the NBA and the NHL thinking it’s ESPN all over again. We’ll see how committed NBC is to the NHL if they’re fighting for attention from January to June with the much bigger NBA.
David Person says:

13 years ago

Paulsen I love your work but, the pecking order has changed in this country. MLB is just not as popular nationally as the NBA anymore. Like you I do believe the NBA would experience a slight decline from the HEAT not being in the Finals, but I also believe if it is Thunder and Pacers the Finals will defeat any World Series not featuring the Yankees, Cubs, and Dodgers. Not even the Red Sox and Cardinals could topple the HEAT and Spurs this year and Boston and St. Louis are much bigger markets with huge local followings.
- Morgan Wick says:
  
  13 years ago
  
  NBA popularity is cyclical, and very heavily driven by stars. If there are no stars it’s very possible the ratings go into the tank.
  - JakeFrankie1 says:
    
    13 years ago
    
    NBA National Ratings are way above the MLB. MLB has the edge in the “Local” TV Ratings though has been like this for years.
  - David Person says:
    
    13 years ago
    
    All sports are cyclical except for the NFL. The NBA is hot and MLB is not even close and that is with or without superstars in the NBA. MLB is quickly becoming a niched sport and that was my argument.
Morgan Wick says:

13 years ago

Something tells me Fox is only going to pick up NBA rights if they can keep some rights, including the NBA Finals, for their broadcast network. ESPN is the only outlet that actively disdains the broadcast side of things, threats by other networks, including Fox, to move their broadcast networks to cable if they don’t get their way with Aereo notwithstanding. Besides, I think the NBA is too important to Turner for them to lose; lose the NBA after losing NASCAR and cutting back on the MLB regular season and the NCAA and MLB are likely to be asking, “Wait, why are we with these guys again?” Besides, if both ESPN and FS1 have NBA rights the NHL is likely to put a gun to their heads; had they been able to negotiate their contract just one year later they’d have bolted to Fox in a heartbeat, glow puck and all, and as it stands they’re stuck with a network with no dreams (or much ability) of growing bigger (remember, NASCAR fell in their laps by default) that can’t grow the game more than it already has.
Here’s an out-there idea, one that may be more possible in my own wishful thinking than in reality: the NBA does the exact opposite of what they did in 2002 and goes with a broadcast-heavy deal, knowing the sports cable bubble is going to burst sooner than later – if not due to a la carte then due to cord-cutting, if not due to cord-cutting then due to sports-free packages – knowing the Internet is never going to compete with linear television for delivery of live, as-it-happens events, knowing that relying on cable networks that might end up with a third of the distribution they have now is not really that different from moving to a glorified premium channel, and knowing that most other sports properties being locked up well into the next decade is something that could turn to their advantage. (Keep in mind, it’s looking increasingly likely Adam Silver will be commissioner as all this is being negotiated, not the man who negotiated the 2002 deal.) There is zero evidence that this would happen in the next few months, but that doesn’t mean it’s not what the NBA *should* do. Unlike a lot of people, I think there’s too much momentum towards cutting off the cable money train in some way to ignore. Then again, I have such elaborate and unrealistic fantasies I imagine Time-Warner buying out CBS’ half of the CW in order to salvage Turner’s portion of the NBA package…
- Nicholas says:
  
  13 years ago
  
  What if Showtime picked up 10 NBA games per year, and bought out CW as their broadcast outlet?
Sammy Leonard says:

13 years ago

If FOX is committed to keeping the World Series on broadcast TV for the next eight years, why should the NBA move The Finals to cable when it’s ratings outperform that of the World Series both overall and in particular in the prized 18-49 demographic (which, in my opinion should move back to being 18-34 because the current scale is much too wide) and has significantly more appeal and viewership among younger fans? Plus the economy has not recovered to the point where adding a cable package to view the games is not a significant expense for more than a few that make up the NBA’s core fan base. With every other major sport locked up until the ’20’s, I don’t think ESPN is in a position to force the NBA to go in that direction under the threat of less coverage on the network; after the Super Bowl, what would ESPN do, lead off SportsCenter with spring training baseball for two months and heavily push the first two months of the regular season over NBA Playoff coverage? The fans would smell something rotten right away and ESPN knows that. The claims by NHL fans that ESPN shafts them is a tad exaggerated considering there are three prominent SportsCenter anchors who are very vocal and open of their hockey fandom (John Buccigross, Steve Levy, and Linda Cohen) and they regularly feature Barry Melrose on the show. As of right now, ESPN needs the NBA more than the NBA needs them.
- David Person says:
  
  13 years ago
  
  Great discussion. I do believe ESPN knows how important the NBA is especially after watching the NBA Finals defeat the World Series in ratings and not just postseason ratings but regular season ratings as well. The NBA is a cultural force among young people and its reach is growing globally at a very fast rate. ESPN knows just how important the NBA is now and I would be shocked if they decided to let the NBA walk.
- Morgan Wick says:
  
  13 years ago
  
  The World Series is on broadcast mostly because it has to be – MLB insists on it and might have the wrath of Congress come down on it in the form of losing their anti-trust exemption if it wasn’t. If the media companies and leagues had their way sports would abandon broadcast entirely. The NBA might also fear the wrath of Congress but it didn’t stop them from moving the All-Star Game to cable.
- Nicholas says:
  
  13 years ago
  
  If ESPN gets the finals on cable, then TNT would want in and get 3 or 4 games

SMW Podcast

NFL RedZone host Scott Hanson joins the pod; plus: CBS' JJ Watt decision and what it means for Troy Aikman

0:000:00

Nielsen has reprocessed the viewership for NBC’s four NFL games from Week 1-3 of the season. The Patriots-Seahawks Kickoff Game has been updated to 25.2 million, up from an originally-reported 25.1 million. The Week 1 Cowboys-Giants “Sunday Night Football” game has been updated to 25.82 million, up from 25.66 million. Colts-Chiefs the following week has been updated to 24.43 million, up from 24.29 million. Finally, Rams-Broncos in Week 3 has been updated to 20.96 million, up from 20.77 million.