Kevin Durant‘s return to Oklahoma City highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on the docket, Gonzaga, Pebble Beach and the NHRA.
First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- Super Bowl 51: Patriots/Falcons: Prediction: 45.7; final rating: 45.3.
- “Undisputed” special: Prediction: 2.8; final rating: 1.4.
- NBA regular season: Cavaliers/Knicks and Clippers/Celtics. Predictions: 2.2 and 1.6; final ratings: 1.7 and 1.3.
This week’s predictions (all times Eastern):
NBA Saturday Primetime on ABC: Warriors/Thunder (8:30 PM Saturday): Kevin Durant‘s return to Oklahoma City was one of the most anticipated games of the NBA season when the schedule was released last August. Yet there are a few reasons to temper one’s expectations in the ratings department. For one, the game was scheduled so late in the season that the intensity surrounding Durant’s departure has largely dissipated. There is little novelty seeing him play against the Thunder, as he has already faced them twice at home. Finally, it is fair to question just how much Durant’s relationship with Oklahoma City mattered on a national level — especially as compared to LeBron James‘ hyper-analyzed relationship with Cleveland. It is entirely possible that ratings will fail to match last year’s Saturday Primetime game between the teams, an overtime thriller that had a 3.2 rating. Prediction: 2.8.
NBA Sunday Showcase on ABC: Spurs/Knicks (3:30 PM Sunday): The New York Knicks have been the story of the week in the NBA thanks to their highly public feud with Charles Oakley, but it wlil be a tall order for ABC to overcome their 22-33 record Sunday afternoon. The Knicks might have to haul Ewing, Starks and the rest of the 1994 team out of MSG in order to make a blip in the ratings. Prediction: 1.6.
College basketball on ESPN: Gonzaga/St. Mary’s (8:15 PM Saturday): Airing opposite Kevin Durant’s return to Oklahoma City, do not expect unbeaten Gonzaga’s streak to make much of a dent in the ratings Saturday night. Even so, it would not take much to at least match last year’s comparable Texas/Iowa State matchup (0.6). Prediction: 0.6.
PGA Tour on CBS: final round of Pebble Beach National Pro-Am (3 PM Sunday): Every now and again, Pebble Beach delivers big ratings for the PGA Tour. Last year, final round coverage of the national pro-am scored a 3.2 rating, the top rated telecast of the season outside of the majors. Just five years ago, the final round had a 4.9 rating — though that may have well been 50 years ago, given Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson were in the final pairing. With Jordan Spieth atop the leaderboard entering the weekend and Jason Day in third, look for this year’s tournament to deliver strong numbers as well. Prediction: 3.0.
NHRA on FOX: Pomona eliminations (4 PM Sunday): One week ahead of NASCAR’s return, the NHRA kicks off the 2017 auto racing calendar on FOX. In four outings on the FOX broadcast network last year, NHRA ratings ranged from a 0.6 to a 0.7. Pretty safe bet this season’s premiere will finish with one or the other. Prediction: 0.6.
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